Spain vs Belgium preview
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
In an intriguing encounter Spain overcame Belgium with a final score of 2-1 after an even first half that ended 1-1. The second half saw Spain capitalize on their dominance to secure the victory. With 68 percent possession the home team controlled the tempo and created superior opportunities as indicated by their expected goals total of 2.01 to the visitors 0.55. Belgium despite being viewed as the stronger side entering the fixture could not overcome the xG differential of 1.46. The absence of any red cards ensured a full strength battle until the end. Spain's ability to shift momentum after the interval proved decisive in turning the match in their favor. This outcome represented a notable deviation given the initial team assessments. Overall the game showcased efficient play from the winners aligning with key metrics.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Spain exhibited a significant structural deviation from pre-match projections by securing the win.
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Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with the team's underlying performance data.
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xG alignment: xG alignment was evident as the outcome matched the expected goals differential of 1.46.
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Market alignment: Market alignment was maintained with the final result consistent with available indicators.
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xG expectations: xG expectations positioned Spain favorably at 2.01 over Belgium's 0.55.
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Event impact: Event impact centered on the second half where Spain netted the decisive goal for a 2-1 scoreline.
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Red card distortion: Red card distortion played no role as both teams finished with eleven players.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Spain
Belgium
Movement
Changes since opening
Spain
Belgium
Team Power Ranking
i
35.26
35.85
Spain
Belgium
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Spain
Belgium
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Spain
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Spain
Spain
Belgium
Spain
Belgium
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
Spain
Spain
Belgium
Spain
Belgium
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- ESP had peak pressure around 93'.
- ESP started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-07-13T09:57:08+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
Spain
vs
France
League: World Cup
Kickoff: Tue, 14 Jul - 7:00 PM
Venue: Dallas Stadium
Statistics
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Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
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