Portugal vs Spain preview

2026 World Cup, World
Dallas Stadium Mon, 6 Jul - 7:00 PM
World Cup
Portugal POR
0 1
Spain ESP
Full Time Mon, 6 Jul 7:00 PM
Round of 16
|
Goal
Mikel Merino - 90+1'

CONTEXT

Portugal hosted Spain in a tightly contested match that concluded with a 0-1 scoreline after a goalless first half. Spain controlled 55 percent of possession compared to Portugal's 45 percent while both teams registered low expected goals totals of 0.88 for the home side and 0.92 for the visitors. The narrow xG differential of minus 0.04 reflected the even nature of chances created throughout the ninety minutes. No red cards were shown to either team and the second half produced the sole goal that separated the sides. Portugal entered as the stronger rated side yet Spain secured the win in a result consistent with the underlying metrics. The performance highlighted minimal structural shifts from expected patterns and delivered an outcome aligned with pre-match indicators.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Spain recorded a significant deviation of 51.1 percent from pre-match indicators to claim the victory.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency metrics remained in line with overall performance levels for both teams.
  • xG alignment: The final result proved consistent with the close xG values recorded during the match.
  • Market alignment: The outcome aligned with market expectations for the fixture.
  • xG expectations: Portugal posted 0.88 xG while Spain posted 0.92 xG across the full match.
  • Event impact: The 0-1 result occurred without major second-half adjustments or disruptive incidents.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued and therefore no distortion affected match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Taylor
A. Taylor
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
G. Beswick
G. Beswick
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Nunn
A. Nunn
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
F. Zwayer
F. Zwayer
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Portugal R. Martínez Montoliú
R. Martínez Montoliú
VS
Spain L. De la Fuente Castillo
L. De la Fuente Castillo
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.5
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Croatia Rank: W
Colombia Rank: D
Uzbekistan Rank: W
Congo DR Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Austria Rank: W
Uruguay Rank: W
Saudi Arabia Rank: W
Cape Verde Islands Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Portugal
23.99%
Draw
27.09%
Away Spain
48.92%

Movement

Changes since opening
Portugal
+23.8%
Draw
+22.51%
Spain
-46.31%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
32.59
30.37
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Portugal
Spain
Power Score
32.59
30.37
League Position
2
1
Global Rank
5
2

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Portugal — Opponent-weighted form score
Spain — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Portugal Spain

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Portugal

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Spain

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Portugal ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Spain
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.44
31.82
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.82
26.44
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Portugal -0.48 Efficiency Index
vs
Spain +0.48 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Portugal
Spain
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Portugal
vs
Spain
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Portugal Spain
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
7%
15%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.06 vs -0.14
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Portugal Spain
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
15%
7%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.14 vs -0.06
Portugal
Spain
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Portugal
vs
Spain
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Portugal Spain
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Portugal 0.26
Spain 0.30
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Portugal Spain
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Portugal 0.02
Spain 0.00
Portugal
Spain
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ESP had peak pressure around 18'.
  • POR started the game with stronger pressure.
POR Pressure ESP Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ESP reached the top pressure at 18' (89.14).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Portugal POR Home
2 matches
Spain ESP Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
0
Goals
3
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
3
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-13T09:51:12+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Meireles Costa
Portugal
1 D. Meireles Costa
J. Cavaco Cancelo
Substitution
Portugal
20 J. Cavaco Cancelo
R. Santos Gato Alves Dias
Portugal
3 R. Santos Gato Alves Dias
R. Palma Veiga
Portugal
13 R. Palma Veiga
N. Mendes
Substitution
Portugal
25 N. Mendes
V. Machado Ferreira
Substitution
Portugal
23 V. Machado Ferreira
J. Gonçalves Neves
Portugal
15 J. Gonçalves Neves
P. Lomba Neto
Substitution
Portugal
18 P. Lomba Neto
B. Fernandes
Portugal
8 B. Fernandes
J. Sequeira
Substitution
Portugal
11 J. Sequeira
C. Ronaldo
Portugal
7 (C) C. Ronaldo
U. Simón Mendibil
Spain
23 U. Simón Mendibil
M. Cucurella
Spain
24 M. Cucurella
A. Laporte
Spain
14 A. Laporte
P. Cubarsí Paredes
Spain
22 P. Cubarsí Paredes
P. Porro Sauceda
Spain
12 P. Porro Sauceda
P. López
Substitution
Spain
20 P. López
Rodri
Spain
16 (C) Rodri
A. Rodríguez
Substitution
Spain
15 A. Rodríguez
D. Olmo Carvajal
Substitution
Spain
10 D. Olmo Carvajal
L. Yamal Nasraoui Ebana
Spain
19 L. Yamal Nasraoui Ebana
M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
Substitution
Spain
21 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 06, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2026 World Cup, World · Round of 16
Stadium
Dallas Stadium
Capacity
80000
Attendance
70649
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Anthony Taylor
Gary Beswick
Adam Nunn
Felix Zwayer

Statistics

Possession
POR
47%
ESP
53%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 3
5 Shots 6
38 Dangerous attacks 50
45 Possession 55
3 Corners 7
14 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

87 Ball Safe 91
6 Goal Kicks 6
7 Goal Attempts 11
5 Substitutions 4
20 Throwins 17
1 Hit Woodwork 0
9 Successful Headers 3
0 Assists 1
1 Injuries 0
23 Dribble Attempts 10
10 Successful Dribbles 5
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

Attacking

106 Attacks 96
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

52 Long Passes 33
427 Passes 530
357 Successful Passes 467
84 Successful Passes Percentage 88
7 Key Passes 7
23 Successful Long Passes 16
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48

Defensive

5 Saves 2
14 Tackles 18
7 Interceptions 6
47 Duels Won 35

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 16
4 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
9 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Anthony Taylor

Starting XI ▼

1
Diogo Costa
Diogo Costa Goalkeeper
7.55
3
Rúben Dias
Rúben Dias Defender
6.47
13
Renato Veiga
Renato Veiga Defender
6.82
20
João Cancelo
João Cancelo Defender
6.76
5
Diogo Dalot
Diogo Dalot
Defender71'
6.24
25
Nuno Mendes
Nuno Mendes Defender
6.96
2
Nélson Semedo
Nélson Semedo
Defender56'
6.12
8
Bruno Fernandes
Bruno Fernandes Midfielder
6.96
11
João Félix
João Félix Midfielder
6.88
17
Rafael Leão
Rafael Leão
Attacker71'
6.6
15
João Neves
João Neves Midfielder
7.2
18
Pedro Neto
Pedro Neto Midfielder
6.49
26
Francisco Conceição
Francisco Conceição
Attacker83'
6.66
23
Vitinha
Vitinha Midfielder
6.42
10
Bernardo Silva
Bernardo Silva
Midfielder83'
6.11
7
Cristiano Ronaldo
Cristiano Ronaldo (C) Attacker
7.07
Referee : Anthony Taylor

Starting XI ▼

23
Unai Simón
Unai Simón Goalkeeper
7.12
12
Pedro Porro
Pedro Porro Defender
7.12
14
Aymeric Laporte
Aymeric Laporte Defender
6.53
22
Pau Cubarsí
Pau Cubarsí Defender
6.61
24
Marc Cucurella
Marc Cucurella Defender
6.81
10
Dani Olmo
Dani Olmo Midfielder
6.98
6
Mikel Merino
Mikel Merino
Midfielder85'
7.26
15
Álex Baena
Álex Baena Midfielder
7.2
7
Ferran Torres
Ferran Torres
Attacker75'
6.97
16
Rodri
Rodri (C) Midfielder
7.58
19
Lamine Yamal
Lamine Yamal Midfielder
7.25
20
Pedri
Pedri Midfielder
6.73
8
Fabián Ruiz
Fabián Ruiz
Midfielder85'
6.53
21
Mikel Oyarzabal
Mikel Oyarzabal Attacker
6.67
26
Borja Iglesias
Borja Iglesias
Attacker90+7'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+8'
Event
Ferran Torres
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+7'
Event
Borja Iglesias → Mikel Oyarzabal
9th Substitution
Event
Renato Veiga
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
90+4'
90+1'
Event
Mikel Merino
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Bernardo Silva
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
89'
85'
Event
Mikel Merino → Dani Olmo
7th Substitution
85'
Event
Fabián Ruiz → Pedri
8th Substitution
Event
Francisco Conceição → Pedro Neto 
5th Substitution
83'
Event
Bernardo Silva → Vitinha
6th Substitution
83'
75'
Event
Ferran Torres → Álex Baena
4th Substitution
Event
Diogo Dalot → João Cancelo
2nd Substitution
71'
Event
Rafael Leão → João Félix
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Nélson Semedo → Nuno Mendes 
1st Substitution
56'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
João Neves from Portugal misses a header from the right side of the box, sending it to the left. The attempt was assisted by Bruno Fernandes with a cross after a set piece situation.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ferran Torres from Spain receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
90
Update Update
Francisco Conceição wins a free kick for Portugal on the right wing.
90
Update Update
Ferran Torres commits a foul for Spain.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Spain: Borja Iglesias comes on for Mikel Oyarzabal.
90
Update Update
Bernardo Silva (Portugal) misses the header from very close range.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Renato Veiga of Portugal receives a yellow card for a foul.
90
Update Update
Renato Veiga commits a foul for Portugal.
90
Update Update
Lamine Yamal from Spain is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Spain takes the lead 1-0 against Portugal. Mikel Merino scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom left corner, assisted by Ferran Torres with a through ball.
90
Update Update
Bernardo Silva commits a foul for Portugal.
90
Update Update
Mikel Merino wins a free kick for Spain in the attacking half.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bernardo Silva of Portugal receives a yellow card for a foul.
89
Update Update
Bernardo Silva commits a foul for Portugal.
89
Update Update
Mikel Merino wins a free kick for Spain in the defensive half.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Spain: Mikel Merino comes on for Dani Olmo.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Spain: Fabián Ruiz comes on for Pedri.
84
Update Update
Nélson Semedo from Portugal wins a free kick in the defensive half.
84
Update Update
Lamine Yamal commits a foul for Spain.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portugal: Bernardo Silva comes on for Vitinha.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portugal: Francisco Conceição comes on for Pedro Neto.
80
Update Update
Rodri commits a handball for Spain.
79
Corner Corner
Spain wins a corner after Nélson Semedo concedes.
78
Attempt Attempt
Dani Olmo's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Mikel Oyarzabal provided the assist.
78
Corner Corner
Spain wins a corner after Rúben Dias concedes.
77
Attempt Attempt
Ferran Torres from Spain misses a right-footed shot from a tough angle on the right, sending the ball to the right. He was assisted by Pedri with a through ball.
76
Attempt Attempt
Vitinha's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Cristiano Ronaldo provided the assist.
76
Attempt Attempt
Bruno Fernandes (Portugal) misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, going close but missing to the right.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Spain: Ferran Torres comes on for Álex Baena.
73
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Attempt saved. Lamine Yamal's left-footed shot from a difficult angle and long range on the right is saved in the top center of the goal by Diogo Costa.
73
Corner Corner
Spain wins a corner after Diogo Costa concedes.
72
Update Update
Nélson Semedo commits a foul for Portugal.
72
Update Update
Lamine Yamal of Spain is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portugal: Rafael Leão comes on for João Félix.
71
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portugal: Diogo Dalot comes on for João Cancelo.
68
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
65
Corner Corner
Álex Baena's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is saved in the bottom right corner by Diogo Costa.
63
Update Update
Bruno Fernandes wins a free kick for Portugal in the attacking half.
63
Update Update
Pedri commits a foul for Spain.
62
Attempt Attempt
Lamine Yamal's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
62
Corner Corner
Spain wins a corner after João Félix concedes it.
61
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Pedri's right-footed shot from outside the box for Spain is blocked. Dani Olmo provided the assist.
61
Corner Corner
Spain is awarded a corner after Renato Veiga concedes.
61
Update Update
João Félix wins a free kick for Portugal in the defensive half.
61
Update Update
Lamine Yamal commits a foul for Spain.
59
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal) took a right-footed shot from a challenging angle on the right.
58
Update Update
Cristiano Ronaldo is caught offside for Portugal.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portugal: Nélson Semedo comes on for Nuno Mendes due to an injury.
55
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
54
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Nuno Mendes from Portugal.
50
Update Update
Nuno Mendes wins a free kick for Portugal in the defensive half.
50
Update Update
Lamine Yamal commits a foul for Spain.
48
Update Update
Cristiano Ronaldo wins a free kick for Portugal in the attacking half.
48
Update Update
Dani Olmo commits a foul for Spain.
46
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at 0-0 between Portugal and Spain.
45
Update Update
João Félix commits a foul for Portugal.
45
Update Update
Pedro Porro wins a free kick for Spain in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Pau Cubarsí of Spain.
45
Update Update
João Félix wins a free kick for Portugal in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
Rúben Dias commits a foul for Portugal.
45
Update Update
Dani Olmo of Spain wins a free kick in the attacking half.
45
Update Update
Lamine Yamal is caught offside for Spain.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of added time.
45
Attempt Attempt
Rodri from Spain misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box.
41
Attempt Attempt
Nuno Mendes' left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. João Félix provided the assist.
40
Update Update
João Félix wins a free kick for Portugal in the defensive half.
40
Update Update
Foul committed by Pedro Porro of Spain.
40
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to João Félix from Portugal.
38
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
37
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. João Félix's header from the left side of the six-yard box is saved.
37
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Cristiano Ronaldo's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved.
35
Update Update
João Félix wins a free kick for Portugal in the defensive half.
35
Update Update
Lamine Yamal commits a foul for Spain.
31
Update Update
Cristiano Ronaldo wins a free kick for Portugal in the defensive half.
31
Update Update
Foul committed by Aymeric Laporte of Spain.
31
Corner Corner
Attempt missed. Dani Olmo (Spain) header from the centre of the box following a corner.
30
Corner Corner
Spain wins a corner after Nuno Mendes concedes.
29
Update Update
Pedro Neto of Portugal commits a handball.
26
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are set to continue.
23
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Porro from Spain misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box after a set piece situation.
23
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
22
Update Update
João Cancelo commits a foul for Portugal.
22
Update Update
Álex Baena of Spain is awarded a free kick on the left wing.
21
Update Update
Bruno Fernandes is caught offside for Portugal.
19
Update Update
Pedro Neto wins a free kick for Portugal in the defensive half.
19
Update Update
Álex Baena commits a foul for Spain.
16
Corner Corner
Álex Baena's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is saved in the bottom right corner by Diogo Costa.
16
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Lamine Yamal's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is saved.
16
Corner Corner
Spain wins a corner after Diogo Costa concedes.
14
Attempt Attempt
Álex Baena (Spain) misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box, sending it high and wide to the right.
12
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Cristiano Ronaldo's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is saved in the bottom right corner by Unai Simón. The assist came from Bruno Fernandes.
12
Corner Corner
Portugal wins a corner, conceded by Unai Simón.
11
Update Update
João Félix commits a foul for Portugal.
11
Update Update
Pedro Porro of Spain is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
10
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Pedro Neto's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portugal after Pedri concedes.
8
Attempt Attempt
Mikel Oyarzabal from Spain misses an attempt with a left-footed shot from the center of the box.
7
Attempt Attempt
João Cancelo from Portugal misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, sending it too high. Nuno Mendes provided the assist.
3
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Attempt saved. Mikel Oyarzabal's left-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the center of the goal by Diogo Costa.
2
Update Update
João Neves from Portugal wins a free kick on the left wing.
2
Attempt Attempt
Mikel Oyarzabal takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Anthony Taylor.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Portugal 0-1 Spain. Structural assessment: Spain exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.