United States vs Belgium preview

2026 World Cup, World
Seattle Stadium Tue, 7 Jul - 12:00 AM
World Cup
United StatesUSA
1 4
BelgiumBEL
Full Time Tue, 7 Jul 12:00 AM
Round of 16
Goal
|
Goal
Hans Vanaken - 57'
Romelu Lukaku - 90+3'

CONTEXT

The United States hosted Belgium in a match that ended 1-4. The home side took a 1-2 lead into halftime but could not maintain momentum after the break. United States held 56 percent possession yet generated just 0.61 expected goals while Belgium created 2.08. The stronger team on paper failed to convert territorial advantage into results. No red cards were issued to either side. Belgium secured the victory despite pre-match indicators favoring the hosts. The final outcome reflected the visitors superior finishing and clinical edge throughout the contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: United States 1-4 Belgium. Belgium showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiency remained in line with underlying performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: The final result was consistent with the xG differential of minus 1.47.
  • Market alignment: The outcome did not align with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: United States underperformed relative to their expected goal creation of 0.61.
  • Event impact: Belgium converted their 2.08 xG into four goals to secure the win.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so match dynamics experienced zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Makhadmeh
A. Makhadmeh
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
M. Al Kalaf
M. Al Kalaf
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Al Roalle
A. Al Roalle
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
P. Atcho
P. Atcho
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
United States M. Pochettino Trossero
M. Pochettino Trossero
VS
Belgium R. Garcia
R. Garcia
2.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
2.25 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bosnia and Herzegovina Rank: W
Türkiye Rank: L
Australia Rank: W
Paraguay Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Senegal Rank: W
New Zealand Rank: W
Iran Rank: D
Egypt Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home United States
37.05%
Draw
29.24%
Away Belgium
33.71%

Movement

Changes since opening
United States
+36.85%
Draw
+27.32%
Belgium
-64.18%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
37.78
28.15
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
United States
Belgium
Power Score
37.78
28.15
League Position
1
1
Global Rank
-
9

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
United States — Opponent-weighted form score
Belgium — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) United States Belgium

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

United States

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Belgium

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

United States ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Belgium
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
16.34
37.84
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.84
16.34
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
United States -1.93 Efficiency Index
vs
Belgium +1.93 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
United States
Belgium
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

United States
vs
Belgium
Created Set-piece attacking threat
United States Belgium
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
73%
13%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.55 vs -0.26
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
United States Belgium
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
13%
73%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.26 vs +0.55
United States
Belgium
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
United States
vs
Belgium
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
United States Belgium
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
United States 0.16
Belgium 0.45
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
United States Belgium
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
United States 0.12
Belgium 0.02
United States
Belgium
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • USA had peak pressure around 89'.
  • BEL started the game with stronger pressure.
USA Pressure BEL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: USA reached the top pressure at 89' (82.47).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

United States USA Home
1 matches
Belgium BEL Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
1
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-13T09:51:17+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 07, 2026, 12:00 AM
Competition
2026 World Cup, World · Round of 16
Stadium
Seattle Stadium
Capacity
68740
Attendance
66925
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Adham Mohammad Tumah Makhadmeh
Mohammad Mustafa Hassan Al Kalaf
Ahmad Moannes Nadi Al Roalle
Pierre Ghislain Atcho

Statistics

Possession
USA
54%
BEL
46%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 4
0 Big Chances Created 4
5 Shots 4
43 Dangerous attacks 33
56 Possession 44
3 Corners 5
10 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

53 Ball Safe 74
6 Goal Kicks 7
6 Goal Attempts 11
5 Substitutions 5
25 Throwins 18
10 Successful Headers 12
0 Assists 4
0 Injuries 1
19 Dribble Attempts 20
11 Successful Dribbles 10
58 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

Attacking

127 Attacks 93
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

36 Long Passes 60
527 Passes 414
459 Successful Passes 334
87 Successful Passes Percentage 81
5 Key Passes 13
19 Successful Long Passes 18
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 30

Defensive

3 Saves 1
20 Tackles 22
9 Interceptions 9
52 Duels Won 55

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 15
2 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
11 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Adham Mohammad Tumah Makhadmeh

Starting XI ▼

24
Matt Freese
Matt Freese Goalkeeper
5.58
3
Chris Richards
Chris Richards Defender
5.93
5
Antonee Robinson
Antonee Robinson Defender
6.62
18
Max Arfsten
Max Arfsten
Midfielder90+2'
13
Tim Ream
Tim Ream (C) Defender
5.5
16
Alex Freeman
Alex Freeman Defender
7.28
4
Tyler Adams
Tyler Adams Midfielder
6.23
9
Ricardo Pepi
Ricardo Pepi
Attacker72'
6.74
8
Weston McKennie
Weston McKennie Midfielder
5.98
17
Malik Tillman
Malik Tillman Midfielder
6.95
2
Sergiño Dest
Sergiño Dest Attacker
6.48
7
Giovanni Reyna
Giovanni Reyna
Midfielder46'
6.72
10
Christian Pulisic
Christian Pulisic Attacker
5.89
14
Sebastian Berhalter
Sebastian Berhalter
Midfielder59'
6.94
20
Folarin Balogun
Folarin Balogun Attacker
6.73
19
Haji Wright
Haji Wright
Attacker90+2'
Referee : Adham Mohammad Tumah Makhadmeh

Starting XI ▼

1
Thibaut Courtois
Thibaut Courtois Goalkeeper
6.43
4
Brandon Mechele
Brandon Mechele Defender
6.3
5
Maxim De Cuyper
Maxim De Cuyper Defender
6.81
21
Timothy Castagne
Timothy Castagne Defender
6.83
25
Nathan Ngoy
Nathan Ngoy Defender
6.5
8
Youri Tielemans
Youri Tielemans (C) Midfielder
6.84
10
Leandro Trossard
Leandro Trossard Midfielder
6.9
22
Alexis Saelemaekers
Alexis Saelemaekers
Attacker89'
14
Dodi Lukébakio
Dodi Lukébakio Midfielder
6.91
11
Jérémy Doku
Jérémy Doku
Attacker67'
6.75
23
Nicolas Raskin
Nicolas Raskin Midfielder
7.35
6
Axel Witsel
Axel Witsel
Midfielder89'
24
Amadou Onana
Amadou Onana Midfielder
6.69
20
Hans Vanaken
Hans Vanaken
Midfielder21'
7.99
17
Charles De Ketelaere
Charles De Ketelaere Attacker
2
9.35
9
Romelu Lukaku
Romelu Lukaku
Attacker67'
7.07

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Romelu Lukaku
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
Event
Max Arfsten → Antonee Robinson
9th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Haji Wright → Folarin Balogun
10th Substitution
90+2'
89'
Event
Alexis Saelemaekers → Leandro Trossard
7th Substitution
89'
Event
Axel Witsel → Nicolas Raskin
8th Substitution
Event
Ricardo Pepi → Tyler Adams
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Malik Tillman
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
69'
67'
Event
Jérémy Doku → Dodi Lukébakio
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Romelu Lukaku → Charles De Ketelaere
5th Substitution
Event
Sebastian Berhalter → Christian Pulisic
3rd Substitution
59'
57'
Event
Hans Vanaken
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Giovanni Reyna → Sergiño Dest
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Weston McKennie
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
35'
33'
Event
Charles De Ketelaere
Header / 3rd Goal
Event
Malik Tillman
Free Kick / 2nd Goal
31'
21'
Event
Hans Vanaken → Amadou Onana
1st Substitution
9'
Event
Charles De Ketelaere
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Belgium takes a 4-1 lead as Romelu Lukaku scores with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box into the bottom right corner, assisted by Hans Vanaken.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for the USA: Max Arfsten comes on for Antonee Robinson.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for the USA: Haji Wright comes on for Folarin Balogun.
90
Update Update
Jérémy Doku from Belgium wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Sebastian Berhalter (USA).
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Belgium: Axel Witsel comes on for Nicolas Raskin.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Belgium: Alexis Saelemaekers comes on for Leandro Trossard.
87
Update Update
Jérémy Doku wins a free kick for Belgium in the attacking half.
87
Update Update
Foul committed by Sebastian Berhalter (USA).
86
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Trossard's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. He was assisted by Jérémy Doku.
86
Update Update
Timothy Castagne commits a foul for Belgium.
86
Update Update
Malik Tillman from the USA wins a free kick in the defensive half.
84
Update Update
Nicolas Raskin commits a foul for Belgium.
84
Update Update
Sebastian Berhalter wins a free kick for the USA in the attacking half.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to the USA after a concession by Brandon Mechele.
82
Corner Corner
Attempt missed. Folarin Balogun (USA) heads the ball from the center of the box after a corner.
82
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Folarin Balogun from the USA has a left-footed shot from the left side of the box that is saved.
81
Update Update
Jérémy Doku wins a free kick for Belgium on the left wing.
81
Update Update
Weston McKennie commits a foul for the USA.
79
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Sebastian Berhalter from the USA, who took a left-footed shot from outside the box.
77
Update Update
Timothy Castagne commits a foul for Belgium.
77
Update Update
Malik Tillman from the USA wins a free kick on the left wing.
76
Update Update
Timothy Castagne wins a free kick for Belgium in the defensive half.
76
Update Update
Foul committed by Antonee Robinson (USA).
75
Update Update
Hans Vanaken wins a free kick for Belgium in the defensive half.
75
Update Update
Malik Tillman from the USA commits a foul.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for the USA: Ricardo Pepi comes on for Tyler Adams.
71
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Malik Tillman from the USA receives a yellow card for a foul.
69
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
69
Update Update
Youri Tielemans from Belgium is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
69
Update Update
Foul committed by Malik Tillman (USA).
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Belgium: Romelu Lukaku comes on for Charles De Ketelaere.
67
Update Update
Foul committed by Nathan Ngoy of Belgium.
67
Update Update
Malik Tillman (USA) is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Belgium: Jérémy Doku comes on for Dodi Lukébakio.
66
Corner Corner
Attempt missed. Alex Freeman's header from the center of the box goes high and wide to the right. He was assisted by Sebastian Berhalter, who delivered a cross after a corner.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to the USA after Youri Tielemans concedes.
62
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Trossard's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Charles De Ketelaere.
62
Corner Corner
Belgium wins a corner after Chris Richards concedes.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for the USA: Sebastian Berhalter comes on for Christian Pulisic.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Belgium leads 3-1 against the USA as Hans Vanaken scores with a right-footed shot from outside the box.
53
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Christian Pulisic from the USA.
53
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
51
Corner Corner
Belgium wins a corner after Tim Ream concedes.
47
Update Update
Youri Tielemans commits a foul for Belgium.
47
Update Update
Malik Tillman from the USA is awarded a free kick on the left wing.
46
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at USA 1, Belgium 2.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for the USA: Giovanni Reyna comes on for Sergiño Dest.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to the USA after Nathan Ngoy concedes.
45
Update Update
Malik Tillman wins a free kick for the USA in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
Nicolas Raskin commits a foul for Belgium.
45
Corner Corner
Attempt missed. Dodi Lukébakio (Belgium) had a left-footed shot from the left side of the box that went to the right. Nathan Ngoy assisted after a corner.
45
Corner Corner
Belgium wins a corner after Alex Freeman concedes.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
VAR decision: the previous decision has been cancelled.
45
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Alex Freeman's header from the center of the box goes wide to the left, assisted by Malik Tillman.
45
Corner Corner
USA wins a corner after Nathan Ngoy concedes.
43
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Dodi Lukébakio (Belgium) heads the ball from the center of the box after a set piece situation.
42
Update Update
Foul committed by Chris Richards (USA).
42
Update Update
Hans Vanaken wins a free kick for Belgium on the left wing.
39
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Attempt saved. Nicolas Raskin's right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box is saved in the center of the goal by Matt Freese. The shot was assisted by Youri Tielemans with a cross.
38
Corner Corner
Belgium is awarded a corner after Tyler Adams concedes.
35
Update Update
Weston McKennie commits a foul for the USA.
35
Update Update
Nicolas Raskin wins a free kick for Belgium in the defensive half.
35
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Weston McKennie from the USA receives a yellow card for a foul.
33
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Belgium takes the lead 2-1 as Charles De Ketelaere scores with a header from very close range.
31
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Malik Tillman scores for the USA with a right-footed shot from a free kick into the high center of the goal. The match is now 1-1 against Belgium.
30
Update Update
Folarin Balogun from the USA is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
30
Update Update
Brandon Mechele commits a foul for Belgium.
29
Update Update
Weston McKennie of the USA is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
29
Update Update
Nicolas Raskin commits a foul for Belgium.
26
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are set to continue.
24
Update Update
Maxim De Cuyper wins a free kick for Belgium in the defensive half.
24
Update Update
The match is currently paused for a drinks break.
24
Update Update
Sergiño Dest commits a foul for the USA.
21
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
21
Update Update
Tyler Adams wins a free kick for the USA in the defensive half.
21
Update Update
Dodi Lukébakio commits a foul for Belgium.
21
Update Update
The match is currently delayed due to an injury to Brandon Mechele from Belgium.
20
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Belgium: Hans Vanaken comes on for Amadou Onana.
18
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
17
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Amadou Onana from Belgium.
16
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Leandro Trossard (Belgium) takes a right-footed shot from outside the box.
14
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Chris Richards from the USA.
13
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
13
Update Update
Foul committed by Tyler Adams (USA).
11
Update Update
Charles De Ketelaere of Belgium is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
11
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Raskin's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked.
9
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Belgium takes the lead 1-0 against the USA. Charles De Ketelaere scores with a right-footed shot from very close range to the center of the goal.
8
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Youri Tielemans (Belgium) took a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
7
Update Update
Antonee Robinson commits a foul for the USA.
7
Update Update
Dodi Lukébakio from Belgium wins a free kick in the defensive half.
2
Attempt Attempt
Charles De Ketelaere takes a header, but it is saved.
1
Attempt Attempt
Timothy Castagne takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
1
Attempt Attempt
Youri Tielemans takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
1
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Trossard takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Adham Mohammad.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: United States 1-4 Belgium. Structural assessment: Belgium exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.