Paraguay vs France preview

2026 World Cup, World
Philadelphia Stadium Sat, 4 Jul - 9:00 PM
World Cup
Paraguay PAR
0 1
France FRA
Full Time Sat, 4 Jul 9:00 PM
Round of 16
|
Goal
Kylian Mbappé - 70' (P)

CONTEXT

Paraguay faced France in an international fixture that ended 0-1 in favor of the visitors. The first half concluded evenly at 0-0. Throughout the contest Paraguay managed only 24 percent possession and created minimal opportunities reflected in their low expected goals total of 0.13. France on the other hand dominated with 76 percent of the ball and registered 1.48 in expected goals. A single goal separated the sides after the break. The stronger team France delivered a performance that showed significant deviation from pre-match levels at 21.2 percent. Efficiency remained in line with their overall superiority. No disciplinary actions in the form of red cards occurred to alter the flow. The result matched the underlying metrics precisely.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: France showed a significant structural deviation of 21.2 percent from pre-match projections.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the stronger team's performance.
  • xG alignment: The match outcome was consistent with the expected goals differential of -1.35.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned with market expectations for the stronger team.
  • xG expectations: France generated 1.48 expected goals compared to Paraguay's 0.13.
  • Event impact: The sole goal in the second half determined the 0-1 outcome after a goalless first half.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued, resulting in no distortion to the match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
I. Tantashev
I. Tantashev
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
A. Tsapenko
A. Tsapenko
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
T. Gaynulin
T. Gaynulin
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Al Jassim
A. Al Jassim
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Paraguay G. Alfaro
G. Alfaro
VS
France D. Deschamps
D. Deschamps
1.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
1.25 i
Last 6 Opponents
Germany Rank: D
Australia Rank: D
Türkiye Rank: W
United States Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sweden Rank: W
Norway Rank: W
Iraq Rank: W
Senegal Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Paraguay
6.5%
Draw
14.71%
Away France
78.79%

Movement

Changes since opening
Paraguay
+6.31%
Draw
+11.01%
France
-17.32%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
23.7
45.18
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Paraguay
France
Power Score
23.7
45.18
League Position
3
1
Global Rank
40
1

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Paraguay — Opponent-weighted form score
France — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Paraguay France

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Paraguay

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

France

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Paraguay ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy France
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.38
25.07
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.07
24.38
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Paraguay -0.06 Efficiency Index
vs
France +0.06 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Paraguay
France
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Paraguay
vs
France
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Paraguay France
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
26%
58%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.03 vs +0.15
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Paraguay France
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
58%
26%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
+0.15 vs -0.03
Paraguay
France
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Paraguay
vs
France
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Paraguay France
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Paraguay 0.29
France 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Paraguay France
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Paraguay 0.01
France 0.00
Paraguay
France
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FRA had peak pressure around 38'.
  • FRA started the game with stronger pressure.
PAR Pressure FRA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FRA reached the top pressure at 38' (72.40).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Paraguay PAR Home
0 matches
France FRA Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-13T09:50:41+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
O. Gill
Paraguay
12 O. Gill
J. Cáceres
Paraguay
4 J. Cáceres
V. Velázquez Ramos
Paraguay
2 V. Velázquez Ramos
G. Gómez Portillo
Paraguay
15 (C) G. Gómez Portillo
O. Alderete Fernández
Substitution
Paraguay
3 O. Alderete Fernández
J. Alonso Mujica
Paraguay
6 J. Alonso Mujica
M. Almirón Rejala
Substitution
Paraguay
10 M. Almirón Rejala
D. Gómez Amarilla
Substitution
Paraguay
8 D. Gómez Amarilla
A. Cubas
Paraguay
14 A. Cubas
M. Galarza Fonda
Paraguay
23 M. Galarza Fonda
J. Enciso
Substitution
Paraguay
19 J. Enciso
M. Maignan
France
16 M. Maignan
L. Digne
France
3 L. Digne
W. Saliba
France
17 W. Saliba
D. Upamecano
France
4 D. Upamecano
J. Koundé
France
5 J. Koundé
A. Rabiot
France
14 A. Rabiot
K. Kone
France
6 K. Kone
B. Barcola
Substitution
France
12 B. Barcola
M. Olise
France
11 M. Olise
O. Dembélé
Substitution
France
7 O. Dembélé
K. Mbappé
France
10 (C) K. Mbappé

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 04, 2026, 09:00 PM
Competition
2026 World Cup, World · Round of 16
Stadium
Philadelphia Stadium
Capacity
69176
Attendance
68324
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ilgiz Tantashev
Andrey Tsapenko
Timur Gaynulin
Abdulrahman Ibrahim Al Jassim

Statistics

Possession
PAR
29%
FRA
71%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 6
17 Dangerous attacks 81
24 Possession 76
2 Corners 12
10 Free kicks 12
0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

68 Ball Safe 65
0 Penalties 1
12 Goal Kicks 7
3 Goal Attempts 11
4 Substitutions 2
19 Throwins 17
6 Successful Headers 16
1 Injuries 0
14 Dribble Attempts 30
4 Successful Dribbles 15
29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

Attacking

63 Attacks 145
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

55 Long Passes 39
183 Passes 569
98 Successful Passes 510
54 Successful Passes Percentage 90
3 Key Passes 13
12 Successful Long Passes 23
22 Successful Long Passes Percentage 59

Defensive

4 Saves 1
29 Tackles 13
14 Interceptions 10
50 Duels Won 56

Build-up

5 Total Crosses 22
0 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

13 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Ilgiz Tantashev

Starting XI ▼

12
Orlando Gill
Orlando Gill Goalkeeper
7
2
Gustavo Velázquez
Gustavo Velázquez Defender
6.46
3
Omar Alderete
Omar Alderete Defender
6.51
13
José Canale
José Canale
Defender58'
6.18
4
Juan José Cáceres
Juan José Cáceres Defender
6.49
6
Júnior Alonso
Júnior Alonso Defender
6.87
15
Gustavo Gómez
Gustavo Gómez (C) Defender
6.55
8
Diego Gómez
Diego Gómez Midfielder
6.58
11
Mauricio
Mauricio
Midfielder71'
6.93
10
Miguel Almirón
Miguel Almirón Midfielder
6.25
21
Gabriel Ávalos
Gabriel Ávalos
Attacker71'
6.43
14
Andrés Cubas
Andrés Cubas Midfielder
6.94
23
Matías Galarza Fonda
Matías Galarza Fonda Midfielder
6.67
19
Julio Enciso
Julio Enciso Attacker
6.39
24
Gustavo Caballero
Gustavo Caballero
Attacker61'
6.48
Referee : Ilgiz Tantashev

Starting XI ▼

16
Mike Maignan
Mike Maignan Goalkeeper
7.26
3
Lucas Digne
Lucas Digne Defender
7.35
4
Dayot Upamecano
Dayot Upamecano Defender
7.51
5
Jules Koundé
Jules Koundé Defender
7.12
17
William Saliba
William Saliba Defender
7.26
6
Manu Koné
Manu Koné Midfielder
7.11
7
Ousmane Dembélé
Ousmane Dembélé Midfielder
6.8
24
Rayan Cherki
Rayan Cherki
Midfielder84'
6.34
11
Michael Olise
Michael Olise Midfielder
6.88
12
Bradley Barcola
Bradley Barcola Midfielder
6.72
20
Désiré Doué
Désiré Doué
Attacker61'
7.26
14
Adrien Rabiot
Adrien Rabiot Midfielder
7.17
10
Kylian Mbappé
Kylian Mbappé (C) Attacker
7.67

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
Michael Olise
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
84'
Event
Rayan Cherki → Ousmane Dembélé
6th Substitution
81'
Event
Manu Koné
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Gabriel Ávalos → Miguel Almirón
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Mauricio → Diego Gómez
5th Substitution
71'
70'
Event
Kylian Mbappé
Penalty / 1st Penalty
67'
Event
Désiré Doué
Penalty awarded
Event
Gustavo Caballero → Julio Enciso
2nd Substitution
61'
61'
Event
Désiré Doué → Bradley Barcola
3rd Substitution
Event
José Canale → Omar Alderete
1st Substitution
58'
1ST-HALF
19'
Event
Bradley Barcola
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
France is awarded a corner after Matías Galarza concedes.
90
Update Update
Mauricio from Paraguay is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Désiré Doué of France.
90
Update Update
Juan José Cáceres commits a foul for Paraguay.
90
Update Update
Kylian Mbappé wins a free kick for France on the left wing.
90
Corner Corner
Paraguay wins a corner after William Saliba concedes.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Michael Olise of France receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Matías Galarza from Paraguay is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Michael Olise (France).
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Attempt saved. Kylian Mbappé's left-footed shot from the center of the box is saved in the center of the goal by Orlando Gill.
90
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Kylian Mbappé's left-footed shot from the center of the box is saved in the bottom left corner by Orlando Gill. The assist came from Désiré Doué.
90
Corner Corner
France wins a corner after Júnior Alonso concedes.
90
Update Update
Gustavo Caballero commits a foul for Paraguay.
90
Update Update
Dayot Upamecano wins a free kick for France in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 10 minutes of added time.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Désiré Doué's right-footed shot from outside the box for France is blocked. Michael Olise provided the assist.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Matías Galarza of Paraguay.
90
Update Update
Michael Olise from France wins a free kick in the attacking half.
90
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Mauricio's right-footed shot from outside the box for Paraguay is saved in the bottom left corner by Mike Maignan of France. Matías Galarza provided the assist with a headed pass.
89
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Kylian Mbappé's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved.
87
Update Update
Matías Galarza commits a foul for Paraguay.
87
Update Update
Manu Koné wins a free kick for France in the defensive half.
87
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Júnior Alonso (Paraguay) takes a left-footed shot from outside the box.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for France: Rayan Cherki comes on for Ousmane Dembélé.
84
Update Update
Gustavo Caballero commits a foul for Paraguay.
84
Update Update
Michael Olise from France wins a free kick in the attacking half.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Manu Koné of France receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
81
Update Update
Juan José Cáceres from Paraguay is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
81
Update Update
Manu Koné commits a foul for France.
80
Update Update
Foul committed by Gabriel Ávalos of Paraguay.
80
Update Update
Dayot Upamecano wins a free kick for France in the defensive half.
77
Update Update
Juan José Cáceres from Paraguay is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
77
Update Update
Kylian Mbappé commits a foul for France.
76
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
73
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
72
Update Update
Andrés Cubas commits a foul for Paraguay.
72
Update Update
Adrien Rabiot wins a free kick for France in the defensive half.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paraguay: Gabriel Ávalos comes on for Miguel Almirón.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paraguay: Mauricio comes on for Diego Gómez.
70
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Kylian Mbappé scores for France with a right-footed shot into the bottom right corner. The score is now Paraguay 0, France 1.
67
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
67
Update Update
VAR decision results in a penalty for France.
66
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Désiré Doué from France.
65
Update Update
VAR decision results in a penalty for France.
65
Update Update
Diego Gómez commits a foul for Paraguay.
64
Attempt Attempt
Kylian Mbappé from France misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box, sending it too high. He was assisted by Désiré Doué.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paraguay: Gustavo Caballero comes on for Julio Enciso due to an injury.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for France: Désiré Doué comes on for Bradley Barcola.
60
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Bradley Barcola from France takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it goes high and wide to the right. He was assisted by Adrien Rabiot.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paraguay: José Canale comes on for Omar Alderete due to an injury.
56
Corner Corner
France wins a corner after Juan José Cáceres concedes.
55
Corner Corner
France wins a corner after Orlando Gill concedes.
54
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
54
Attempt Attempt
Manu Koné's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved.
52
Corner Corner
Ousmane Dembélé from France has a right-footed shot from a tough angle on the left that is close but goes wide to the left. Kylian Mbappé provided the assist after a corner.
52
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Orlando Gill from Paraguay.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to France after Juan José Cáceres concedes.
50
Attempt Attempt
Miguel Almirón's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked.
50
Corner Corner
Paraguay wins a corner after William Saliba concedes.
49
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Adrien Rabiot (France) takes a left-footed shot from outside the box.
47
Update Update
Gustavo Velázquez commits a foul for Paraguay.
47
Update Update
Michael Olise from France wins a free kick in the defensive half.
46
Update Update
Miguel Almirón from Paraguay is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
46
Update Update
Foul committed by Lucas Digne (France).
46
Update Update
The second half begins with the match score at 0-0 between Paraguay and France.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
45
Attempt Attempt
Adrien Rabiot's left-footed shot from outside the box for France is blocked.
43
Attempt Attempt
Manu Koné from France misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box, sending it high and wide to the right. Dayot Upamecano provided the assist.
41
Corner Corner
Kylian Mbappé from France misses an attempt from the right side of the box, shooting to the right. He was assisted by Ousmane Dembélé, who delivered a cross after a corner.
40
Update Update
Julio Enciso commits a foul for Paraguay.
40
Update Update
Jules Koundé wins a free kick for France in the defensive half.
38
Corner Corner
France wins a corner after Júnior Alonso concedes.
38
Attempt Attempt
Ousmane Dembélé's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Kylian Mbappé provided the assist.
36
Corner Corner
France wins a corner after Andrés Cubas concedes.
36
Update Update
Gustavo Velázquez from Paraguay wins a free kick in the defensive half.
36
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Jules Koundé's left-footed shot from the center of the box is saved in the bottom right corner.
34
Update Update
Andrés Cubas commits a foul for Paraguay.
34
Update Update
Kylian Mbappé wins a free kick for France in the attacking half.
34
Update Update
Gustavo Velázquez commits a foul for Paraguay.
34
Update Update
Mike Maignan from France is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
33
Attempt Attempt
Adrien Rabiot from France misses the attempt with a left-footed shot from outside the box that goes too high, assisted by Ousmane Dembélé.
33
Update Update
Julio Enciso from Paraguay wins a free kick in the attacking half.
33
Update Update
Foul committed by William Saliba of France.
30
Update Update
Matías Galarza commits a foul for Paraguay.
30
Update Update
Manu Koné from France is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
30
Update Update
Foul committed by Bradley Barcola (France).
30
Update Update
Miguel Almirón wins a free kick for Paraguay in the defensive half.
28
Attempt Attempt
Júnior Alonso's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Andrés Cubas.
28
Attempt Attempt
Diego Gómez from Paraguay misses a right-footed shot from outside the box, sending the ball to the right.
27
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
23
Corner Corner
France wins a corner after Gustavo Velázquez concedes.
23
Update Update
The match is currently paused for a drinks break.
22
Attempt Attempt
Manu Koné's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Ousmane Dembélé provided the assist.
22
Corner Corner
France wins a corner after Diego Gómez concedes.
19
Update Update
Juan José Cáceres from Paraguay wins a free kick in the defensive half.
19
Update Update
Foul committed by Bradley Barcola of France.
19
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bradley Barcola of France receives a yellow card for a foul.
18
Corner Corner
France wins a corner after Júnior Alonso concedes.
14
Update Update
Matías Galarza from Paraguay is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
14
Update Update
Foul committed by Michael Olise (France).
12
Update Update
Matías Galarza from Paraguay is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
12
Update Update
Manu Koné commits a foul for France.
7
Corner Corner
France wins a corner after Miguel Almirón concedes.
1
Update Update
First half begins.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Paraguay 0-1 France. Structural assessment: France exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.