Vitória vs Palmeiras preview

Brazil flag 2026 Serie A, Brazil
Estádio Manoel Barradas
Serie A
VitóriaVTO
0 4
PalmeirasPAL
Full Time
Round 21 Regular Season
|
Goal
Mauricio - 45+1'
Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva - 45+6' (Own Goal)
Jhon Arias - 70'
Ramón Sosa - 84'
Cacá 37' Red Card
Luan Cândido 40' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Vitória hosted Palmeiras in a match that concluded with a final score of 0-4 in favor of the visitors. At halftime the score was 0-2, indicating early superiority by Palmeiras. The home side managed just 32 percent possession against 68 percent for the away team. Expected goals data showed Vitória at 0.52 and Palmeiras at 1.57, creating a differential of minus 1.05. Two red cards were issued to Vitória, which occurred during the second half and influenced proceedings. As the stronger team, Palmeiras delivered a performance that matched their status. The result remained consistent with the underlying xG metrics and demonstrated market alignment. Efficiency levels stayed in line with the observed patterns of play. The primary second half adjustment stemmed from red card distortion on the home side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Vitória 0-4 Palmeiras. Palmeiras showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with the dominant performance by the away team.
  • xG alignment: The outcome was consistent with the xG differential favoring Palmeiras.
  • Market alignment: The result demonstrated true market alignment without notable discrepancies.
  • xG expectations: Palmeiras met xG expectations by recording 1.57 compared to Vitória's 0.52.
  • Event impact: Second half adjustments were driven by the impact of red cards on the home side.
  • Red card distortion: Two red cards for Vitória introduced substantial red card distortion to the match flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Gomes Stefano
A. Gomes Stefano
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
R. Henrique Correa
R. Henrique Correa
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
C. Alves de Lima Filho
C. Alves de Lima Filho
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Pierry Dias dos Santos
Pierry Dias dos Santos
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Vitória J. Ribeiro Ventura
J. Ribeiro Ventura
VS
Palmeiras A. Moreira Ferreira
A. Moreira Ferreira
1.21
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.26
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Remo Rank: 57 L
Botafogo Rank: 68 D
Vasco da Gama Rank: 60 W
Santos Rank: 64 L
Internacional Rank: 63 W
Bragantino Rank: 65 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Atlético Mineiro Rank: 64 L
Coritiba Rank: 59 W
Chapecoense Rank: 53 W
Flamengo Rank: 76 W
Cruzeiro Rank: 68 D
Remo Rank: 59 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 2 - 2
2

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.81
76.7
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Vitória
Palmeiras
Power Score
61.81
76.7
League Position
13
1
Global Rank
512
127

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Vitória — Opponent-weighted form score
Palmeiras — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Vitória Palmeiras

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Vitória

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Palmeiras

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Vitória ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Palmeiras
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.63
28.16
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.16
35.63
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Vitória +0.64 Efficiency Index
vs
Palmeiras -0.64 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Vitória
Palmeiras
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Vitória
vs
Palmeiras
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Vitória Palmeiras
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
73%
8%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.38 vs -0.12
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Vitória Palmeiras
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
8%
73%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.12 vs -0.38
Vitória
Palmeiras
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Vitória
vs
Palmeiras
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Vitória Palmeiras
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Vitória 0.36
Palmeiras 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Vitória Palmeiras
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Vitória 0.06
Palmeiras 0.00
Vitória
Palmeiras
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • VTO had peak pressure around 36'.
  • PAL started the game with stronger pressure.
VTO Pressure PAL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: VTO reached the top pressure at 36' (86.98).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Vitória VTO Home
5 matches
Palmeiras PAL Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
2
Draws
2
2
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
5
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-31T00:00:16+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-4-1
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026 Serie A, Brazil · Round 21 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estádio Manoel Barradas
Capacity
30618
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alex Gomes Stefano
Rodrigo Figueiredo Henrique Correa
Carlos Henrique Alves de Lima Filho
Pierry Dias dos Santos

Statistics

Possession
VTO
39%
PAL
61%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 4
0 Big Chances Created 3
4 Shots 8
28 Dangerous attacks 63
32 Possession 68
6 Corners 1
15 Free kicks 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
2 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

68 Ball Safe 58
8 Goal Kicks 1
5 Goal Attempts 12
5 Substitutions 5
11 Throwins 12
0 Hit Woodwork 1
15 Successful Headers 15
0 Assists 2
1 Injuries 2
8 Dribble Attempts 14
6 Successful Dribbles 4
75 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29

Attacking

65 Attacks 115
0 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

59 Long Passes 23
229 Passes 509
164 Successful Passes 466
72 Successful Passes Percentage 92
8 Key Passes 12
27 Successful Long Passes 13
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 57

Defensive

2 Saves 3
18 Tackles 8
8 Interceptions 1
52 Duels Won 37

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 12
5 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

0 Offsides 2
10 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Alex Gomes Stefano

Starting XI ▼

1
Lucas Arcanjo
Lucas Arcanjo Goalkeeper
6.15
2
Emanuel Brítez
Emanuel Brítez Defender
6.16
13
Ramon
Ramon Defender
5.9
25
Cacá
Cacá Defender
5.92
36
Luan Cândido
Luan Cândido Defender
5.69
70
Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva
Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva Defender
6.15
83
Jamerson
Jamerson
Defender67'
6.32
6
Emmanuel Martínez
Emmanuel Martínez Midfielder
6.24
88
Zé Vitor
Zé Vitor
Midfielder41'
6.73
10
Matheuzinho
Matheuzinho Midfielder
7
12
Diego Tarzia
Diego Tarzia
Defender46'
6.73
44
Baralhas
Baralhas (C) Midfielder
6.98
15
Walace
Walace
Defender74'
6.2
95
Caíque Gonçalves
Caíque Gonçalves Midfielder
6.62
91
Renê
Renê Attacker
6.71
8
Tomás Pochettino
Tomás Pochettino
Midfielder46'
6.66
Referee : Alex Gomes Stefano

Starting XI ▼

1
Carlos Miguel
Carlos Miguel Goalkeeper
7.32
2
Alexander Barboza
Alexander Barboza Defender
6.79
30
Lucas Evangelista
Lucas Evangelista
Midfielder65'
6.77
15
Gustavo Gómez
Gustavo Gómez (C) Defender
6.48
42
José Manuel López
José Manuel López
Attacker46'
6.4
26
Murilo
Murilo Defender
7.2
8
Andreas Pereira
Andreas Pereira Midfielder
7.49
17
Marlon Freitas
Marlon Freitas Midfielder
6.9
32
Emiliano Martínez
Emiliano Martínez
Midfielder46'
6.64
22
Joaquín Piquerez
Joaquín Piquerez Midfielder
6.83
40
Allan
Allan Midfielder
7.04
11
Jhon Arias
Jhon Arias Attacker
7.94
9
Vitor Roque
Vitor Roque
Attacker74'
6.06
18
Mauricio
Mauricio Attacker
7.47
12
Khellven
Khellven
Defender46'
6.83
19
Ramón Sosa
Ramón Sosa Attacker
7.49

Events

2ND-HALF
84'
Event
Ramón Sosa
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Walace → Baralhas 
10th Substitution
74'
74'
Event
Vitor Roque → Jhon Arias
9th Substitution
70'
Event
Jhon Arias
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Jamerson → Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva
8th Substitution
67'
Event
Emanuel Brítez
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
66'
65'
Event
Lucas Evangelista → Alexander Barboza
7th Substitution
Event
Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
56'
Event
Tomás Pochettino → Renê
5th Substitution
46'
Event
Diego Tarzia → Matheuzinho
6th Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Khellven → Mauricio
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
José Manuel López → Gustavo Gómez 
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Emiliano Martínez → Marlon Freitas
4th Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+6'
Event
Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
45+1'
Event
Mauricio
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Zé Vitor → Emmanuel Martínez
1st Substitution
41'
Event
Luan Cândido
Argument / 2nd Redcard
40'
Event
Luan Cândido
Card adjusted
39'
Event
Cacá
Foul / 1st Redcard
37'
Event
Cacá
Card adjusted
37'
Event
Emmanuel Martínez
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
32'
27'
Event
Mauricio
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
14'
Event
Marlon Freitas
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Match ends with a score of 0-4.
87
Attempt Attempt
Vitor Hugo Roque Ferreira takes a right-footed shot but misses.
84
Attempt Attempt
Andreas Hugo Hoelgebaum Pereira takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
84
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Ramon Sosa Acosta takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
74
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ramon Sosa Acosta scores, making it 0-4.
74
Update Update
Walace Souza Silva is on, and Gabriel Baralhas dos Santos is off.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Vitor Hugo Roque Ferreira comes on for Jhon Arias.
70
Attempt Attempt
Ramon Sosa Acosta attempts a header but misses the shot.
70
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Jhon Arias scores with a left-footed shot.
68
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Jhon Arias scores, making it 0-3.
67
Attempt Attempt
Andreas Hugo Hoelgebaum Pereira takes a right-footed shot but misses.
66
Update Update
On Jamerson Santos de Jesus, off Fabiano Josué De Souza Silva.
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Emanuel Britez receives a yellow card.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
65
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Pochettino takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Lucas Evangelista comes on for Alexander Nahuel Barboza Ullua.
64
Update Update
Offside.
58
Attempt Attempt
Jhon Arias takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Fabiano Josué De Souza Silva.
56
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Baralhas dos Santos takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
55
Attempt Attempt
Diego Tarzia's left-footed shot is blocked.
51
Attempt Attempt
Jhon Arias takes a right-footed shot but misses.
50
Attempt Attempt
Ramon Sosa Acosta takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
46
Update Update
Diego Tarzia comes on for Matheusinho.
46
Update Update
Tomas Pochettino is on, and Rene Sousa is off.
46
Update Update
Khellven Douglas Silva Oliveira is on, and Mauricio Magalhaes Prado is off.
46
Update Update
Leandro Emmanuel Martinez comes on for Marlon Rodrigues de Freitas.
46
Update Update
Jose Manuel Lopez comes on for Gustavo Raul Gomez Portillo.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ramon Sosa Acosta attempts a header but misses the shot.
45
Attempt Attempt
Matheusinho takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Fabiano Josué De Souza Silva results in an own goal.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ramon Sosa Acosta takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Own goal! The score is now 0-2.
45
Attempt Attempt
Andreas Hugo Hoelgebaum Pereira takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Mauricio Magalhaes Prado with his left foot results in a goal.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mauricio Magalhaes Prado scores, making it 0-1.
42
Update Update
On Ze Vitor, Off Leandro Emmanuel Martinez.
41
Attempt Attempt
Mauricio Magalhaes Prado takes a left-footed shot but misses.
40
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card shown to Luan Candido.
39
Update Update
VAR decision results in a change of card for Luan Candido.
37
Update Update
VAR decision results in a change of card for Carlos de Menezes Júnior.
37
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card shown to Carlos de Menezes Júnior.
33
Attempt Attempt
Ramon Ramos Lima takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
33
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
33
Attempt Attempt
Matheusinho's right-footed shot is saved.
32
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Leandro Emmanuel Martinez receives a yellow card.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
27
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Mauricio Magalhaes Prado.
25
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Mauricio Magalhaes Prado.
25
Attempt Attempt
Emanuel Britez attempts a header but misses the shot.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
17
Attempt Attempt
Allan takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
14
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Marlon Rodrigues de Freitas.
13
Attempt Attempt
Joaquin Piquerez Moreira takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
11
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
8
Attempt Attempt
Mauricio Magalhaes Prado takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
4
Update Update
Offside.
3
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Emmanuel Martinez takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Alex Gomes Stefano.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Vitória 0-4 Palmeiras. Structural assessment: Palmeiras exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.