Vitória vs Botafogo preview
2026 Serie A, Brazil
Estádio Manoel Barradas
Round 23 ·
Regular Season
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Aug 28
CONTEXT
Vitória hosted Botafogo in a match that concluded with a 1-0 home victory after a 1-0 halftime score. Botafogo entered as the stronger side yet finished with one red card while Vitória recorded none. Expected goals stood at 2.36 for the home team and 0.92 for the visitors with a differential of 1.44. Possession favored Botafogo at 54 percent against Vitória's 46 percent. The outcome remained consistent with the expected goals profile. A significant performance deviation occurred for Vitória. Second half adjustments centered on red card distortion. The single goal separated the sides at full time.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Vitória recorded a significant deviation from pre-match performance expectations.
-
Efficiency shift: Efficiency metrics remained in line with overall match dynamics.
-
xG alignment: The final result aligned with the 1.44 expected goals differential.
-
Market alignment: The outcome proved consistent with pre-match indicators.
-
xG expectations: Vitória posted 2.36 expected goals against Botafogo's 0.92.
-
Event impact: The lone goal decided the 1-0 result.
-
Red card distortion: Botafogo's red card altered second half structure.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
P. Zanovelli
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
30.32
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
4
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0.36
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0.36
League Avg
0
G. Dias Camilo
1st Assistant
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
F. Costa de Oliveira
2nd Assistant
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
A. Ribeiro Gonçalves
4th Official
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
1.21
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.47
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Flamengo
Rank: 76
L
Palmeiras
Rank: 77
L
Remo
Rank: 57
L
Botafogo
Rank: 68
D
Vasco da Gama
Rank: 62
W
Santos
Rank: 63
L
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fluminense
Rank: 67
D
Grêmio
Rank: 63
D
Cruzeiro
Rank: 69
W
Vitória
Rank: 62
D
Santos
Rank: 63
W
Bahia
Rank: 63
L
0
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 5 - 0
0
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.63
66.17
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Vitória
Botafogo
Power Score
61.63
66.17
League Position
12
11
Global Rank
505
368
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Vitória
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Botafogo
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Vitória Botafogo
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Vitória
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Botafogo
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Vitória
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Botafogo
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
53.37
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.63
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Vitória
+1.54
Efficiency Index
vs
Botafogo
-1.54
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Vitória
Botafogo
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Vitória
vs
Botafogo
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Vitória
Botafogo
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
39%
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.09
vs
-0.36
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Vitória
Botafogo
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
39%
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
1.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.36
vs
+0.09
Vitória
Botafogo
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Vitória
vs
Botafogo
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
Vitória
Botafogo
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
Vitória
0.43
Botafogo
0.50
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
Vitória
Botafogo
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
Vitória
0.00
Botafogo
0.02
Vitória
Botafogo
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- VTO had peak pressure around 79'.
- VTO started the game with stronger pressure.
VTO Pressure
BOT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
VTO reached the top pressure at 79' (82.74).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Vitória
VTO
Home
5
matches
Botafogo
BOT
Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
5
Draws
5
0
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
2
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0.37
xG
1.29
1.29
xGA
0.37
Data last updated: 2026-08-17T00:14:08+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
General Information
Date & Time
Competition
2026 Serie A, Brazil · Round 23 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estádio Manoel Barradas
Capacity
30618
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Paulo Cesar Zanovelli
Guilherme Dias Camilo
Felipe Alan Costa de Oliveira
Anderson Ribeiro Gonçalves
Next Match
Vitória
vs
Bahia
League: Serie A
Kickoff: Sun, 23 Aug - 7:00 PM
Venue: Estádio Manoel Barradas
Botafogo
vs
Athletico PR
League: Serie A
Kickoff: Mon, 24 Aug - 11:00 PM
Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos
Statistics
Possession
VTO
49%
BOT
51%
Top Statistics
1
Goals
0
3
Big Chances Created
2
12
Shots
4
51
Dangerous attacks
34
46
Possession
54
8
Corners
4
17
Free kicks
19
2
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
1
Match Overview
105
Ball Safe
99
1
Penalties
0
3
Goal Kicks
9
10
Goal Attempts
7
5
Substitutions
4
18
Throwins
17
0
Hit Woodwork
1
12
Successful Headers
17
0
Injuries
3
21
Dribble Attempts
21
13
Successful Dribbles
10
62
Successful Dribbles Percentage
48
Attacking
93
Attacks
117
2
Big Chances Missed
2
Possession
47
Long Passes
45
344
Passes
402
280
Successful Passes
328
81
Successful Passes Percentage
82
16
Key Passes
15
22
Successful Long Passes
20
47
Successful Long Passes Percentage
44
Defensive
3
Saves
2
21
Tackles
16
5
Interceptions
10
63
Duels Won
62
Build-up
20
Total Crosses
21
3
Accurate Crosses
6
Discipline
5
Offsides
0
19
Fouls
18
Lineup
Referee :
Paulo Cesar Zanovelli
Manager ▼
J. Ribeiro Ventura
Coach
Starting XI ▼
Substitutes ▼
71
Yuri Sena
Goalkeeper
18
Kauan Santos Neves Coutinho
Defender
70
Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva
Defender
98
Mateusinho
Defender
26
Edenilson
Midfielder
11
Osvaldo
Attacker
23
Fabri
Attacker
Referee :
Paulo Cesar Zanovelli
Manager ▼
Starting XI ▼
2
Vitinho
Defender
Substitutes ▼
12
Gabriel Batista
Goalkeeper
4
Mateo Ponte
Defender
26
Anthony
Defender
25
Allan
Midfielder
59
Kauan Toledo
Midfielder
88
Edenilson
Midfielder
37
Kadir Barría
Attacker
77
Lucas Villalba
Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
90+4'
Argument / 1st Redcard
9th Substitution
78'
72'
7th Substitution
72'
8th Substitution
5th Substitution
65'
6th Substitution
65'
61'
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
3rd Substitution
59'
4th Substitution
59'
53'
2nd Substitution
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
51'
1ST-HALF
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
45+3'
Goal disallowed
32'
29'
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
29'
Franclim Carvalho
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
28'
1st Substitution
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
27'
2'
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
CONCLUSION
The 1-0 scoreline reflected Vitória's ability to convert limited chances while Botafogo's numerical disadvantage after the red card limited their response. Expected goals data indicated Vitória created the clearer opportunities throughout. Possession statistics showed Botafogo retained more of the ball yet failed to translate control into equal threat. The halftime lead of 1-0 held firm despite the visitors' attempts to equalize. Red card distortion shaped the closing stages and prevented a more open contest. Vitória's defensive organization proved sufficient to secure the points. Overall the result matched the underlying performance indicators without contradiction.
Match Commentary