Vitória Guimarães vs Nacional preview

Portugal flag 2026/2027 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques
Liga Portugal
Vitória GuimarãesVSC
1 0
NacionalCDN
Full Time
Round 3 Regular Season
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Vitória Guimarães hosted Nacional in a match that concluded with a 1-0 victory for the home side. The stronger team asserted control early, scoring the only goal before halftime to lead 1-0 at the break. Despite Nacional holding 52 percent possession against the home team's 48 percent, Vitória Guimarães created superior chances throughout. Expected goals favored the winners heavily at 2.81 to 0.63. The second half produced no further goals as both sides maintained their structures without major disruptions. No red cards affected proceedings on either side. The outcome proved consistent with underlying performance indicators and pre-match positioning of the favored side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Vitória Guimarães showed a significant structural deviation of 100 percent from baseline patterns.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with expected team outputs.
  • xG alignment: The final result stayed consistent with the expected goals distribution.
  • Market alignment: The outcome matched market alignment indicators for the stronger team.
  • xG expectations: Vitória Guimarães posted 2.81 expected goals against Nacional's 0.63.
  • Event impact: The early goal delivered the decisive event impact on the 1-0 scoreline.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced zero distortion to team dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
P. Torres Ramalho
P. Torres Ramalho
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.32
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
D. Pereira dos Santos
D. Pereira dos Santos
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
F. Serra Jorge Pereira
F. Serra Jorge Pereira
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
G. Fernandes Correia
G. Fernandes Correia
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Vitória Guimarães T. Carvalho Margarido
T. Carvalho Margarido
VS
Nacional J. Baptista dos Santos Brito Gião
J. Baptista dos Santos Brito Gião
0.85
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.31
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting CP Rank: 90 L
Arouca Rank: 70 L
Nacional Rank: 67 L
Casa Pia Rank: 64 L
Sporting CP Rank: 89 L
Rio Ave Rank: 66 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Estoril Rank: 70 W
Santa Clara Rank: 70 D
Vitória Guimarães Rank: 71 W
Santa Clara Rank: 70 L
AVS Rank: 63 L
Tondela Rank: 64 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 1
1

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.04
67.39
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Vitória Guimarães
Nacional
Power Score
71.04
67.39
League Position
9
7
Global Rank
214
313

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Vitória Guimarães — Opponent-weighted form score
Nacional — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Vitória Guimarães Nacional

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Vitória Guimarães

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Nacional

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Vitória Guimarães ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nacional
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
52.29
16.25
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.25
52.29
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Vitória Guimarães +3.15 Efficiency Index
vs
Nacional -3.15 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Vitória Guimarães
Nacional
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Vitória Guimarães
vs
Nacional
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Vitória Guimarães Nacional
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
39%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-1.10 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Vitória Guimarães Nacional
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
0%
39%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
+0.00 vs -1.10
Vitória Guimarães
Nacional
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Vitória Guimarães
vs
Nacional
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Vitória Guimarães Nacional
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Vitória Guimarães 0.55
Nacional 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Vitória Guimarães Nacional
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Vitória Guimarães 0.00
Nacional 0.02
Vitória Guimarães
Nacional
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • VSC had peak pressure around 18'.
  • VSC started the game with stronger pressure.
VSC Pressure CDN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: VSC reached the top pressure at 18' (82.44).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Vitória Guimarães VSC Home
4 matches
Nacional CDN Away
Match Record
2
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
2
Goals
6
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
6
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
1.35
xG
1.13
1.13
xGA
1.35

Data last updated: 2026-08-24T00:09:21+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 3 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques
Capacity
30029
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Pedro Miguel Torres Ramalho
Diogo Pereira dos Santos
Francisco João Serra Jorge Pereira
Gustavo Fernandes Correia

Statistics

Possession
VSC
50%
CDN
50%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
5 Big Chances Created 0
13 Shots 5
42 Dangerous attacks 29
48 Possession 52
4 Corners 3
7 Free kicks 18
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Penalties 0
6 Goal Kicks 15
4 Substitutions 5
28 Throwins 20
0 Hit Woodwork 1
20 Successful Headers 23
1 Assists 0
11 Dribble Attempts 6
3 Successful Dribbles 3
27 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

Attacking

98 Attacks 92
4 Big Chances Missed 0
1 Counter Attacks 2

Possession

55 Long Passes 73
382 Passes 423
310 Successful Passes 330
81 Successful Passes Percentage 78
14 Key Passes 7
29 Successful Long Passes 27
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37

Defensive

0 Saves 3
15 Tackles 15
13 Interceptions 12
46 Duels Won 59

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 14
7 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
18 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Pedro Miguel Torres Ramalho

Starting XI ▼

48
Oliwier Zych
Oliwier Zych Goalkeeper
6.85
4
Óscar Rivas
Óscar Rivas Defender
7.24
13
João Mendes
João Mendes Defender
6.67
23
Tony Strata
Tony Strata Defender
7.8
28
Thiago Balieiro
Thiago Balieiro Defender
7
8
Gonçalo Nogueira
Gonçalo Nogueira Midfielder
6.66
6
Matija Mitrovic
Matija Mitrovic
Midfielder72'
6.37
11
Gustavo Silva
Gustavo Silva Midfielder
7.14
18
Telmo Arcanjo
Telmo Arcanjo
Midfielder78'
6.4
17
Miguel Nogueira
Miguel Nogueira Midfielder
7.83
7
Oumar Camara
Oumar Camara
Attacker63'
6.58
20
Samu
Samu (C) Midfielder
6.98
44
Lohann Doucet
Lohann Doucet Midfielder
6.65
16
Beni Mukendi
Beni Mukendi
Midfielder63'
6.46
24
A. Ndoye
A. Ndoye Attacker
7.37
Referee : Pedro Miguel Torres Ramalho

Starting XI ▼

1
Renato Marin
Renato Marin Goalkeeper
7.2
6
Matheus Dias
Matheus Dias Defender
7.07
20
Matchoi Djaló
Matchoi Djaló
Midfielder80'
6.5
34
Léo Santos
Léo Santos (C) Defender
7.24
38
Ze Vitor
Ze Vitor Defender
6.83
7
Markus Jensen
Markus Jensen Midfielder
6.28
9
Allen Obando
Allen Obando
Attacker80'
6.66
22
Filipe Soares
Filipe Soares Midfielder
7.16
28
Liziero
Liziero Midfielder
6.81
11
Stavros Gavriel
Stavros Gavriel
Midfielder68'
6.4
52
Wesley Gasolina
Wesley Gasolina Midfielder
6.37
2
Daniel de la Cruz
Daniel de la Cruz
Defender56'
6.48
8
Miguel Baeza
Miguel Baeza Attacker
6.83
21
William Kokolo
William Kokolo
Defender56'
6.82
10
Daniel Jr
Daniel Jr Attacker
6.91
99
Pablo Ruan
Pablo Ruan Attacker
6.67

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Daniel Jr
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
80'
Event
Matchoi Djaló → Matheus Dias
8th Substitution
80'
Event
Allen Obando → Markus Jensen
9th Substitution
Event
Telmo Arcanjo → Gustavo Silva
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Matija Mitrovic → Gonçalo Nogueira
6th Substitution
72'
68'
Event
Stavros Gavriel → Liziero
5th Substitution
Event
Oumar Camara → Miguel Nogueira
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Beni Mukendi → Lohann Doucet
4th Substitution
63'
56'
Event
Daniel de la Cruz → Wesley Gasolina
1st Substitution
56'
Event
William Kokolo → Miguel Baeza
2nd Substitution
Event
Samu
Penalty disallowed
51'
Event
Samu
Goalkeeper save
49'
1ST-HALF
Event
Tiago Margarido
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
45+4'
Event
Miguel Nogueira
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
38'
Event
Gonçalo Nogueira
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
28'
Event
Gustavo Silva
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
4'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Alioune Ndoye takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Filipe Miguel Barros Soares takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Daniel Junior.
90
Attempt Attempt
Stavros Gavriel takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Oumar Camara takes a left-footed shot but misses.
88
Update Update
Offside.
82
Attempt Attempt
Tony Strata takes a right-footed shot but misses.
81
Attempt Attempt
Telmo Arcanjo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
81
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
80
Update Update
On Matchoi Djalo, off Matheus Dias.
80
Substitution Substitution
Allen Obando is substituted on for Markus Jensen.
79
Attempt Attempt
Joao Mendes takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
78
Update Update
Telmo Arcanjo comes on for Gustavo Silva.
72
Update Update
Matija Mitrovic comes on for Goncalo Nogueira.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Stavros Gavriel comes on for Igor Matheus Liziero Pereira.
68
Attempt Attempt
Alioune Ndoye attempts a header but misses the shot.
65
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Isai de la Cruz takes a left-footed shot but misses.
63
Substitution Substitution
Oumar Camara is substituted for Miguel Nogueira.
63
Update Update
Oumar Camara replaces Miguel Nogueira.
59
Update Update
Benedito Mambuene Mukendi is on, and Lohann Doucet is off.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
59
Update Update
Williams Kokolo comes on for Miguel Baeza Perez.
56
Update Update
Daniel Isai de la Cruz comes on for Wesley David de Oliveira Andrade.
56
Update Update
Offside.
54
Attempt Attempt
Igor Matheus Liziero Pereira takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
53
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Ruan takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
51
Update Update
VAR decision results in the cancellation of the penalty awarded to Fabio Samuel Amorim Silva.
49
Attempt Attempt
Fabio Samuel Amorim Silva takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
49
Attempt Attempt
Fabio Samuel Amorim Silva takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
46
Attempt Attempt
Fabio Samuel Amorim Silva takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Ruan takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
43
Attempt Attempt
Tony Strata takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
42
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Ruan takes a right-footed shot but misses.
39
Update Update
Offside.
38
Attempt Attempt
Gustavo Silva takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
38
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Goncalo Nogueira.
38
Attempt Attempt
Fabio Samuel Amorim Silva takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Fabio Samuel Amorim Silva takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
34
Attempt Attempt
Joao Mendes takes a left-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Alioune Ndoye takes a right-footed shot but misses.
28
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card.
27
Attempt Attempt
Gustavo Silva takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
24
Update Update
Filipe Miguel Barros Soares attempts a header, but it is blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Gustavo Silva attempts a header but misses the shot.
17
Attempt Attempt
Gustavo Silva attempts a header but misses the shot.
16
Attempt Attempt
Miguel Nogueira attempts a header but misses the shot.
10
Attempt Attempt
Miguel Nogueira attempts a header but misses the shot.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
4
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Gustavo Silva scores with a right-footed shot.
4
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Gustavo Silva scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Goncalo Nogueira.
3
Attempt Attempt
Tony Strata takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
3
Attempt Attempt
Thiago Balieiro takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
3
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
3
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Pedro Miguel Torres Ramalho.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Vitória Guimarães 1-0 Nacional. Structural assessment: Vitória Guimarães exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.