Villarreal vs Atlético Madrid preview

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio de la Cerámica Sun, 24 May - 7:00 PM
La Liga
Villarreal VIL
Atlético Madrid ATM
KICKOFF : Sun, 24 May - 7:00 PM
Round 38 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Villarreal welcomes Atlético Madrid to Estadio de la Cerámica for a compelling La Liga regular season encounter in the 2025/2026 campaign. The hosts currently occupy third position in the domestic standings, just ahead of their visitors who sit fourth. Power ratings place Atlético Madrid slightly ahead with a score of 88.84 against Villarreal's 82.18, underlining the away side as the stronger unit by a margin of 6.7 points. Recent form also favors the visitors, who post a score of 26 compared to the home team's 17.39. Both clubs bring organized structures and experienced personnel to the pitch, setting the stage for a tactical battle where small details could decide the outcome. The match promises measured play with emphasis on structure and efficiency.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Villarreal occupies third place while Atlético Madrid sits fourth in the domestic league table.
  • Form: Atlético Madrid records a superior form score of 26 against Villarreal's 17.39.
  • Squad: Both sides deploy competitive squads suited to the demands of La Liga football.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics show limited differentiation based on current data availability.
  • Transition: Transition phases appear evenly matched with neither side holding a clear edge.
  • Set pieces: Set piece information carries low confidence and relies on proxy data.
  • xVariable: Power scores list Atlético Madrid at 88.84 and Villarreal at 82.18.
  • Market: Villarreal 38.4% (Δ-0.3%) | Draw 25.9% (Δ-0.2%) | Atlético Madrid 35.8% (Δ+0.4%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Villarreal M. García Toral
M. García Toral
VS
Atlético Madrid D. Simeone
D. Simeone
1.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.71
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rayo Vallecano Rank: 79 L
Sevilla Rank: 74 L
Mallorca Rank: 77 D
Levante Rank: 74 W
Celta de Vigo Rank: 80 W
Real Oviedo Rank: 71 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Girona Rank: 75 W
Osasuna Rank: 78 W
Celta de Vigo Rank: 80 L
Valencia Rank: 77 W
Athletic Club Rank: 77 W
Elche Rank: 75 L
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 14 - 14
14
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Villarreal
38.37%
Draw
25.87%
Away Atlético Madrid
35.76%

Movement

Changes since opening
Villarreal
-0.25%
Draw
-0.18%
Atlético Madrid
+0.44%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
82.18
88.84
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Villarreal
Atlético Madrid
Power Score
82.18
88.84
League Position
3
4
Global Rank
50
16

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Villarreal — Opponent-weighted form score
Atlético Madrid — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Villarreal Atlético Madrid

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 39 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Villarreal VIL Home
39 matches
Atlético Madrid ATM Away
Match Record
11
Wins
14
14
Draws
14
14
Losses
11
Goals
48
Goals Scored
54
54
Goals Conceded
48
-6
Goal Difference
+6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-22T00:11:43+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
A. Tenas Ureña
Spain
25 A. Tenas Ureña
?. Mouriño González
Uruguay
15 ?. Mouriño González
W. Kambwala
France
5 W. Kambwala
R. Marín Zamora
Spain
4 R. Marín Zamora
S. Cardona Bermúdez
Spain
23 S. Cardona Bermúdez
T. Buchanan
Canada
17 T. Buchanan
S. Comesaña Veiga
Spain
14 S. Comesaña Veiga
P. Gueye
Senegal
18 P. Gueye
A. Moleiro González
Spain
20 A. Moleiro González
A. Pérez Gutiérrez
Spain
22 A. Pérez Gutiérrez
T. Oluwaseyi
Canada
21 T. Oluwaseyi
J. Oblak
Slovenia
13 J. Oblak
M. Ruggeri
Italy
3 M. Ruggeri
D. Hancko
Slovakia
17 D. Hancko
C. Lenglet
France
15 C. Lenglet
M. Pubill Pagès
Spain
18 M. Pubill Pagès
A. Rodríguez
Spain
10 A. Rodríguez
J. Resurrección Merodio
Spain
6 J. Resurrección Merodio
O. Vaargas
United States
21 O. Vaargas
G. Simeone
Argentina
20 G. Simeone
A. Lookman
Nigeria
22 A. Lookman
A. Griezmann
France
7 A. Griezmann

General Information

Date & Time
May 24, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio de la Cerámica
Capacity
23500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Lineup

Starting XI ▼

25
Arnau Tenas
Arnau Tenas Goalkeeper
6.71
4
Rafa Marín
Rafa Marín Defender
6.88
5
Willy Kambwala
Willy Kambwala Defender
6.45
15
Santiago Mouriño
Santiago Mouriño Defender
6.85
23
Sergi Cardona
Sergi Cardona Defender
6.79
14
Santi Comesaña
Santi Comesaña Midfielder
6.86
17
Tajon Buchanan
Tajon Buchanan Midfielder
6.72
18
Pape Gueye
Pape Gueye Midfielder
6.98
20
Alberto Moleiro
Alberto Moleiro Midfielder
6.9
21
Tani Oluwaseyi
Tani Oluwaseyi Attacker
6.5
22
Ayoze Pérez
Ayoze Pérez Attacker
6.63

Starting XI ▼

13
Jan Oblak
Jan Oblak Goalkeeper
6.96
3
Matteo Ruggeri
Matteo Ruggeri Defender
6.78
15
Clément Lenglet
Clément Lenglet Defender
6.74
17
Dávid Hancko
Dávid Hancko Defender
6.87
18
Marc Pubill
Marc Pubill Defender
7.05
6
Koke
Koke Midfielder
6.98
10
Álex Baena
Álex Baena Midfielder
6.97
20
Giuliano Simeone
Giuliano Simeone Midfielder
6.96
21
Obed Vargas
Obed Vargas Midfielder
6.79
7
Antoine Griezmann
Antoine Griezmann Attacker
7
22
Ademola Lookman
Ademola Lookman Attacker
6.88

CONCLUSION

This fixture offers a clear test of organization and execution between two sides separated by narrow margins in the standings. Atlético Madrid carries a modest power and form advantage that could translate into controlled possession and structured attacks. Villarreal benefits from home support and a solid league position that encourages disciplined defending and quick counters. Set piece contributions remain uncertain due to sparse data, shifting focus toward open play patterns. The encounter should reward teams that maintain shape during transitions while exploiting minor inefficiencies. Overall the visitors hold a slight analytical edge yet the home side remains fully capable of securing a positive result through tactical discipline and collective effort.