Velez vs Milsami preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Stadion Bilino Polje Thu, 9 Jul - 5:00 PM
Europa Conference League
Velez Velez
1 – 1
Milsami Milsami
Full Time Thu, 9 Jul 5:00 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Leonid Ignatov - 90+2'
Goal
|
Goal
Phillip Odubia - 54'

CONTEXT

Velez hosted Milsami in the first leg of their two-legged knockout tie and finished with a 1-1 draw. The score was level at halftime after a goalless opening period. Velez controlled 63 percent of possession while Milsami held 37 percent. The stronger side according to available indicators could not convert territorial advantage into a win. No red cards were shown to either team and the match proceeded without major disciplinary interruptions. The outcome leaves the aggregate balanced ahead of the second leg. Both sides created limited clear opportunities and the game remained competitive from start to finish.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Velez recorded a significant structural deviation from pre-match indicators.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with observed performance patterns.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be evaluated because expected goals data was unavailable.
  • Market alignment: The final result was not aligned with pre-match indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be assessed due to missing metrics.
  • Event impact: The 1-1 draw in leg one keeps the tie level for the return fixture.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion to match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
I. Christodoulou
I. Christodoulou
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
P. Georghiou
P. Georghiou
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
P. Petrou
P. Petrou
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Christoforou
M. Christoforou
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Velez I. Rahimić
I. Rahimić
VS
Milsami A. Savinov
A. Savinov
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Velez
50.06%
Draw
27.17%
Away Milsami
22.78%

Movement

Changes since opening
Velez
+45.21%
Draw
-63.13%
Milsami
+17.93%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Velez
Milsami
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Velez — Opponent-weighted form score
Milsami — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Velez Milsami

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Velez

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Milsami

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Velez ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Milsami
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.56
32.16
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.16
20.56
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Velez — Efficiency Index
vs
Milsami — Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Velez
Milsami
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Velez ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Milsami
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Velez Milsami
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Velez Milsami
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Velez
Milsami
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Velez
vs
Milsami
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Velez Milsami
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Velez 0.06
Milsami 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Velez Milsami
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Velez 0.02
Milsami 0.01
Velez
Milsami
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Velez had peak pressure around 38'.
  • Velez started the game with stronger pressure.
Velez Pressure Milsami Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Velez reached the top pressure at 38' (64.25).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Velez Velez Home
0 matches
Milsami Milsami Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-13T09:54:56+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
F. Ribić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1 F. Ribić
R. Abdullah
Comoros
6 R. Abdullah
A. Hrkać
Bosnia and Herzegovina
8 (C) A. Hrkać
A. Omerovic
Austria
13 A. Omerovic
A. Nukić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
7 A. Nukić
A. Babić
Croatia
29 A. Babić
A. Shhade
Substitution
Israel
17 A. Shhade
A. Mešić
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
11 A. Mešić
S. Duranović
Bosnia and Herzegovina
18 S. Duranović
N. Stojanović
Substitution
Croatia
80 N. Stojanović
A. Spahić
Substitution
9 A. Spahić
F. Dujmović
Bosnia and Herzegovina
31 (C) F. Dujmović
F. Takyi
Ghana
30 F. Takyi
D. Muringen
Substitution
Netherlands
24 D. Muringen
D. Ferreira da Silva Neto
Brazil
34 D. Ferreira da Silva Neto
4
4
H. Asmelash
Substitution
Netherlands
29 H. Asmelash
V. Luchiță
Substitution
Moldova
13 V. Luchiță
C. Nwanze
Nigeria
5 C. Nwanze
N. Fonkeu
Belgium
33 N. Fonkeu
Igor Souza de Carvalho
Substitution
Brazil
20 Igor Souza de Carvalho
K. Kalabatama
Norway
28 K. Kalabatama

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 09, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Stadion Bilino Polje
Capacity
15292
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ioannis Christodoulou
Pavlos Georghiou
Petros Petrou
Marios Christoforou

Statistics

Possession
Velez
57%
Milsami
43%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
4 Shots 6
119 Dangerous attacks 58
63 Possession 37
9 Corners 2
16 Free kicks 18
4 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

94 Ball Safe 109
4 Goal Attempts 8
4 Substitutions 4
34 Throwins 19
1 Assists 1
3 Injuries 1

Attacking

146 Attacks 106

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
18 Fouls 18

Lineup

Referee : Ioannis Christodoulou

Starting XI ▼

1
Faris Ribic
Faris Ribic Goalkeeper
6.12
7
Ajdin Nukic
Ajdin Nukic Defender
6.25
8
Ante Hrkac
Ante Hrkac (C) Defender
6.25
13
Anes Omerovic
Anes Omerovic Defender
6.25
18
Said Duranovic
Said Duranovic Defender
6.25
6
Rafidine Abdullah
Rafidine Abdullah Midfielder
6.37
11
Aldin Mesic
Aldin Mesic Midfielder
6.37
88
Leonid Ignatov
Leonid Ignatov
Attacker65'
17
Ayham Shhade
Ayham Shhade Midfielder
6.5
83
Mahir Bešić
Mahir Bešić
Attacker46'
29
Andro Babic
Andro Babic Midfielder
6.37
9
Armin Spahic
Armin Spahic Attacker
6.46
55
Adin Bajric
Adin Bajric
Defender90+4'
80
Nino Stojanovic
Nino Stojanovic Attacker
6.46
20
Damir Halilovic
Damir Halilovic
Midfielder80'
Referee : Ioannis Christodoulou

Starting XI ▼

31
Filip Dujmovic
Filip Dujmovic (C) Goalkeeper
6.12
4
Aleksandar Angelov Defender
5
Christopher Nwaeze
Christopher Nwaeze Defender
6.26
24
Dehninio Muringen
Dehninio Muringen Defender
6.5
11
Sorin Chele
Sorin Chele
Midfielder74'
6.37
29
Hennos Asmelash
Hennos Asmelash Defender
6.5
21
Samouil Izountouemoi
Samouil Izountouemoi
Midfielder67'
30
Frederick Takyi
Frederick Takyi Defender
6.26
34
Decio Neto
Decio Neto Defender
6.26
13
Vasile Luchita
Vasile Luchita Midfielder
6.5
14
Phillip Odubia
Phillip Odubia
Midfielder46'
20
Igor Souza
Igor Souza Midfielder
6.5
—
Igor Souza
90+1'
33
William Fonkeu
William Fonkeu Midfielder
6.37
28
Kabamba Kalabatama
Kabamba Kalabatama Attacker
6.55

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Adin Bajric → Armin Spahic
8th Substitution
90+4'
Event
Leonid Ignatov
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+2'
90+1'
Event
Leonard Bulmaga → Igor Souza
7th Substitution
Event
Ante Hrkac 
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Damir Halilovic → Nino Stojanovic
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Ajdin Nukic
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
80'
76'
Event
Phillip Odubia
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
74'
Event
Sorin Chele → Dehninio Muringen
5th Substitution
Event
Rafidine Abdullah
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
68'
67'
Event
Samouil Izountouemoi → Hennos Asmelash
4th Substitution
Event
Leonid Ignatov → Aldin Mesic
3rd Substitution
65'
54'
Event
Phillip Odubia
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Aldin Mesic
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
53'
Event
Mahir Bešić → Ayham Shhade
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Phillip Odubia → Vasile Luchita
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
Aleksandar Angelov
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
30'
Event
William Fonkeu
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Adin Bajric comes on for Armin Spahic.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Leonid Ignatov scores to make it 1-1, assisted by Mahir Besic.
90
Update Update
Leonardo Bulmaga comes on for Igor Souza de Carvalho.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ante Hrkac receives a yellow card.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Ajdin Nukic.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card.
74
Update Update
On comes Sorin Chele, off goes Dehninio Muringen.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Rafidine Abdullah.
67
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Rafidine Abdullah.
64
Update Update
Leonid Ignatov replaces Aldin Mesic.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Philip Odubia scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Kabamba Kalabatama.
53
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Update Update
On comes Philip Odubia, off goes Vasile Luchita.
46
Update Update
Mahir Besic comes on for Ayham Shhade.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
32
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Anes Omerovic.
30
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off has occurred!

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 result in the opening leg provides both teams with a platform for the decisive second match. Velez maintained higher possession yet failed to translate control into a lead. Milsami defended solidly and secured a valuable away point. With no dismissals recorded the contest stayed eleven versus eleven for the full duration. The even halftime score reflected a measured first half from each side. Overall the draw maintains parity in the aggregate and shifts emphasis to the return leg where tactical adjustments may prove decisive. Both teams will review chance creation and set-piece execution ahead of the next encounter.