Vardar vs Riga preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Toše Proeski Arena Wed, 22 Jul - 6:00 PM
Europa Conference League
VardarVAR
2 3
RigaRFC
Full Time Wed, 22 Jul 6:00 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Goal
|
Goal
Orlando Galo - 35'
Iago Siqueira - 39', 81'

CONTEXT

The encounter between Vardar and Riga in the opening leg of their knockout tie produced an away victory for Riga by a score of 2-3. Despite Vardar being the stronger team on paper, they were unable to overcome the challenge posed by their opponents. The home side scored first but conceded twice before the break to trail 1-2 at halftime. In the second period, Vardar pulled one back but Riga responded with another goal to seal the three-goal haul. Possession statistics indicated a slight edge for Vardar at 53 percent against 47 percent for Riga. Neither team received any red cards during the contest. The outcome highlighted a notable performance deviation by the winning side. This result leaves the aggregate score poised for the return fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Vardar 2-3 Riga. Riga showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the overall match dynamics.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was not available for alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: The outcome was aligned with market predictions.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals metrics were provided to evaluate performance expectations.
  • Event impact: Key events influenced the match flow without major disruptions.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued affecting the game's distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
P. Farrugia
P. Farrugia
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
M. Ciantar
M. Ciantar
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
K. Saliba
K. Saliba
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Portelli
D. Portelli
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Vardar C. Fabbiani
C. Fabbiani
VS
Riga A. Guľa
A. Guľa
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Vardar
31.14%
Draw
25.66%
Away Riga
43.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Vardar
+30.5%
Draw
+21.48%
Riga
-51.99%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
30
30
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Vardar
Riga
Power Score
30
30
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Vardar — Opponent-weighted form score
Riga — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Vardar Riga

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Vardar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Riga

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Vardar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Riga
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.25
38.51
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.51
39.25
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Vardar +0.06 Efficiency Index
vs
Riga -0.06 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Vardar
Riga
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Vardar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Riga
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Vardar Riga
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Vardar Riga
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Vardar
Riga
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Vardar
vs
Riga
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Vardar Riga
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Vardar 0.32
Riga 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Vardar Riga
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Vardar 0.05
Riga 0.04
Vardar
Riga
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • VAR had peak pressure around 63'.
  • RFC started the game with stronger pressure.
VAR Pressure RFC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: VAR reached the top pressure at 63' (71.03).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 22, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Toše Proeski Arena
Capacity
33011
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Philip Farrugia
Mark Ciantar
Kurt Saliba
Daniel Portelli

Statistics

Possession
VAR
49%
RFC
51%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3
12 Shots 8
56 Dangerous attacks 62
53 Possession 47
3 Corners 3
25 Free kicks 17
3 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

94 Ball Safe 92
13 Goal Attempts 12
2 Substitutions 4
20 Throwins 16
2 Injuries 0

Attacking

111 Attacks 130

Discipline

0 Offsides 2
17 Fouls 27

Lineup

Referee : Philip Farrugia

Starting XI ▼

95
Davor Taleski
Davor Taleski Goalkeeper
5.68
3
Mihail Manevski
Mihail Manevski Defender
5.88
4
Mislav Matic
Mislav Matic Defender
5.86
5
Filip Najdovski
Filip Najdovski Defender
5.86
21
Georgije Jankulov
Georgije Jankulov Defender
5.88
6
David Babunski
David Babunski Midfielder
6.18
8
Boban Nikolov
Boban Nikolov Midfielder
6.27
88
Nemanja Bosancic
Nemanja Bosancic
Midfielder59'
6.37
32
Diego Castañeda
Diego Castañeda Midfielder
6.37
71
Miguel Pires
Miguel Pires Midfielder
6.27
10
Goran Zakaric
Goran Zakaric
Attacker59'
6.55
7
Gerson Rodrigues
Gerson Rodrigues Attacker
6.74
9
Azer Omeragić
Azer Omeragić (C) Attacker
6.38
Referee : Philip Farrugia

Starting XI ▼

91
Frenks Orols
Frenks Orols Goalkeeper
5.88
13
Raivis Jurkovskis
Raivis Jurkovskis Defender
6.15
17
Andrés Salazar
Andrés Salazar Defender
6.16
21
Baba Musah
Baba Musah Defender
6.04
34
Antonijs Cernomordijs
Antonijs Cernomordijs (C) Defender
6.05
4
Orlando Galo
Orlando Galo Midfielder
6.79
5
Karl Gameni Wassom
Karl Gameni Wassom
Defender87'
7
Raki Aouani
Raki Aouani Midfielder
6.27
33
Paulo Eduardo
Paulo Eduardo
Defender67'
6.5
8
Iago Siqueira
Iago Siqueira Midfielder
2
6.93
18
Salah Oulad
Salah Oulad Midfielder
6.33
99
Caio
Caio
Attacker57'
6.46
40
Ahmed Ankrah
Ahmed Ankrah Midfielder
6.27
19
Mohamed Badamosi
Mohamed Badamosi Attacker
6.43
10
Reginaldo Ramires
Reginaldo Ramires
Attacker67'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Filip Najdovski
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90+1'
87'
Event
Karl Gameni Wassom → Orlando Galo
6th Substitution
81'
Event
Iago Siqueira
Field Goal / 5th Goal
67'
Event
Paulo Eduardo → Raki Aouani
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Reginaldo Ramires → Mohamed Badamosi
5th Substitution
Event
Gerson Rodrigues
Field Goal / 4th Goal
66'
Event
Nemanja Bosancic → Boban Nikolov
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Goran Zakaric → Miguel Pires
3rd Substitution
59'
57'
Event
Caio → Salah Oulad
1st Substitution
52'
Event
Salah Oulad
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
Raivis Jurkovskis
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
39'
Event
Iago Siqueira
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
35'
Event
Orlando Galo
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
Event
Diego Castañeda
Field Goal / 1st Goal
28'
21'
Event
Orlando Galo
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
20'
Event
Baba Musah
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Mislav Matic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
15'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Filip Najdovski receives a yellow card.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
87
Update Update
On Karl Gameni Wassom, off Orlando Moises Galo Calderon.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
81
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Reginaldo Oliveira scores, making it 2-3 with an assist from Andres Salazar.
67
Update Update
Reginaldo Ramires comes on for Mohamed Badamosi.
67
Substitution Substitution
Paulo Eduardo Ferreira Godinho is substituted for Raki Aouani.
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Gerson Rodrigues scores, bringing the match to 2-2.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Goran Zakaric comes on for Miguel Pires.
59
Update Update
Nemanja Bosancic comes on for Boban Nikolov.
57
Update Update
On Caio Ferreira, off Salah MHand.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
52
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
43
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
39
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-2.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
35
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Iago Siqueira scores, making it 1-1.
28
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Diego Castaneda scores to make it 1-0.
21
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Orlando Moises Galo Calderon.
20
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
15
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Philip Farrugia.

CONCLUSION

Following the full time whistle, Riga's 3-2 win away at Vardar positions them favorably for the second leg of this tie. Although Vardar dominated possession slightly, their inability to convert chances effectively allowed Riga to take control. The halftime score of 1-2 reflected the visitors' strong start after an initial setback. Without any red cards to alter the game's structure, both teams competed evenly in terms of discipline. This result aligns with certain market indicators despite the deviation noted. Overall, the performance suggests that Riga may hold the upper hand if they maintain their current form in the return leg, making the upcoming match crucial for Vardar's progression hopes.