Vardar vs KuPS preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Toše Proeski Arena Tue, 7 Jul - 5:00 PM
Champions League
Vardar Vardar
0 2
KuPS KuPS
Full Time Tue, 7 Jul 5:00 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
|
Goal
Brahima Magassa - 45'
Bob Nii Armah - 49'
Nemanja Bosancic 74' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

Vardar hosted KuPS in the first leg of their two-legged tie and suffered a 0-2 defeat. KuPS established a 0-1 halftime lead before extending their advantage after the break. Vardar recorded 49 percent possession compared to KuPS at 51 percent yet failed to score. A red card to Vardar occurred during the match and contributed to second-half adjustments. The stronger-rated side Vardar was unable to overcome the deficit against KuPS who claimed the win. Pre-match indicators showed significant deviation with the outcome favoring KuPS. Efficiency metrics remained in line with the final result of 0-2.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Vardar 0-2 KuPS. KuPS showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with performance metrics for both sides.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable so alignment with outcome could not be assessed.
  • Market alignment: Result showed no alignment with pre-match indicators due to the deviation recorded.
  • xG expectations: Absence of xG values prevented evaluation of scoring efficiency expectations.
  • Event impact: The red card to Vardar altered second-half dynamics and team structure.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion was listed among the second-half adjustment factors.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
K. Sağlam
K. Sağlam
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
A. Usta
A. Usta
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Mazlum
M. Mazlum
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
?. Turtay
?. Turtay
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Vardar C. Fabbiani
C. Fabbiani
VS
KuPS M. Nuutinen
M. Nuutinen
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Vardar
43.98%
Draw
27.04%
Away KuPS
28.98%

Movement

Changes since opening
Vardar
+43.21%
Draw
+25.13%
KuPS
-68.34%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Vardar
KuPS
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Vardar — Opponent-weighted form score
KuPS — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Vardar KuPS

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Vardar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

KuPS

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Vardar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy KuPS
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
15.61
26.57
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.57
15.61
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Vardar -0.80 Efficiency Index
vs
KuPS +0.80 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Vardar
KuPS
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Vardar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy KuPS
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Vardar KuPS
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Vardar KuPS
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Vardar
KuPS
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Vardar
vs
KuPS
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Vardar KuPS
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Vardar 0.09
KuPS 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Vardar KuPS
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Vardar 0.04
KuPS 0.00
Vardar
KuPS
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Vardar had peak pressure around 80'.
  • KuPS started the game with stronger pressure.
Vardar Pressure KuPS Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Vardar reached the top pressure at 80' (44.93).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Vardar Vardar Home
0 matches
KuPS KuPS Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-13T09:51:36+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Taleski
Macedonia
95 D. Taleski
G. Jankulov
Macedonia
21 G. Jankulov
D. Velkovski
Macedonia
14 D. Velkovski
M. Matić
Croatia
4 M. Matić
I. Puleio
Substitution
Argentina
34 I. Puleio
J. Torres
Substitution
Argentina
99 J. Torres
B. Nikolov
Macedonia
8 B. Nikolov
D. Castañeda
Substitution
Argentina
32 D. Castañeda
M. Ferreira Pires
Substitution
Portugal
71 M. Ferreira Pires
A. Omeragikj
Substitution
Macedonia
9 (C) A. Omeragikj
G. Zakarić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
10 G. Zakarić
J. Kreidl
Austria
1 J. Kreidl
C. Antwi
Ghana
25 C. Antwi
K. Nuhu
Ghana
4 K. Nuhu
B. Magassa
France
28 B. Magassa
A. Puukko
Substitution
Finland
29 A. Puukko
P. Pennanen
Finland
8 (C) P. Pennanen
V. Gasc
Argentina
10 V. Gasc
B. Armah
Substitution
Ghana
24 B. Armah
G. Engvall
Substitution
Sweden
9 G. Engvall
T. Jyry
Substitution
Finland
16 T. Jyry
J. Moreno Ciorciari
Substitution
Nicaragua
11 J. Moreno Ciorciari

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 07, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Toše Proeski Arena
Capacity
33011
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Kadir Sağlam
Anıl Usta
Mehmet Salih Mazlum
Ömer Faruk Turtay

Statistics

Possession
Vardar
50%
KuPS
50%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
3 Shots 5
53 Dangerous attacks 51
49 Possession 51
3 Corners 4
19 Free kicks 14
4 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
20 Throwins 17

Attacking

125 Attacks 116

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
12 Fouls 22

Lineup

Referee : Kadir Sağlam

Starting XI ▼

95
Davor Taleski
Davor Taleski Goalkeeper
5.88
4
Mislav Matic
Mislav Matic Defender
6.04
14
Darko Velkovski
Darko Velkovski Defender
6.05
21
Georgije Jankulov
Georgije Jankulov Defender
6.05
8
Boban Nikolov
Boban Nikolov Midfielder
6.23
32
Diego Castañeda
Diego Castañeda Midfielder
6.27
88
Nemanja Bosancic
Nemanja Bosancic
Midfielder62'
5.16
34
Ian Puleio
Ian Puleio Midfielder
6.27
3
Mihail Manevski
Mihail Manevski
Defender53'
6.5
71
Miguel Pires
Miguel Pires Midfielder
6.27
6
David Babunski
David Babunski
Midfielder76'
6.5
99
Joaquín Torres
Joaquín Torres Midfielder
6.37
7
Gerson Rodrigues
Gerson Rodrigues
Attacker46'
6.46
9
Azer Omeragić
Azer Omeragić (C) Attacker
6.43
49
Dimitar Danev
Dimitar Danev
Attacker62'
6.46
10
Goran Zakaric
Goran Zakaric Attacker
6.43
Referee : Kadir Sağlam

Starting XI ▼

1
Johannes Kreidl
Johannes Kreidl Goalkeeper
6.5
4
Kasim Adams
Kasim Adams Defender
6.5
24
Bob Nii Armah
Bob Nii Armah Defender
6.69
3
Saku Heiskanen
Saku Heiskanen
Midfielder86'
25
Clinton Antwi
Clinton Antwi Defender
6.61
28
Brahima Magassa
Brahima Magassa Defender
6.69
29
Akseli Puukko
Akseli Puukko Defender
6.5
6
Saku Savolainen
Saku Savolainen
Defender68'
6.5
8
Petteri Pennanen
Petteri Pennanen (C) Midfielder
6.5
10
Valentín Gasc
Valentín Gasc Midfielder
6.5
16
Tommi Jyry
Tommi Jyry Midfielder
6.5
19
Calvin Kabuye
Calvin Kabuye
Attacker86'
9
Gustav Engvall
Gustav Engvall Attacker
6.46
22
Saikou Touray
Saikou Touray
Midfielder68'
6.5
11
Jaime Moreno
Jaime Moreno Attacker
6.5
20
Piotr Parzyszek
Piotr Parzyszek
Attacker62'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Dimitar Danev
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+2'
86'
Event
Saku Heiskanen → Bob Nii Armah
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Calvin Kabuye → Tommi Jyry
10th Substitution
Event
Boban Nikolov
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
80'
Event
David Babunski → Miguel Pires
8th Substitution
76'
Event
Nemanja Bosancic
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
74'
Event
Nemanja Bosancic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
70'
68'
Event
Saku Savolainen → Akseli Puukko
6th Substitution
68'
Event
Saikou Touray → Gustav Engvall
7th Substitution
68'
Event
Gustav Engvall
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Nemanja Bosancic → Diego Castañeda
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Dimitar Danev → Azer Omeragić 
4th Substitution
62'
62'
Event
Piotr Parzyszek → Jaime Moreno
5th Substitution
Event
Mihail Manevski → Ian Puleio
2nd Substitution
53'
49'
Event
Bob Nii Armah
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
Event
Gerson Rodrigues → Joaquín Torres
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Brahima Magassa
Field Goal / 1st Goal
Event
Mislav Matic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
30'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dimitar Danev receives a yellow card.
86
Update Update
Calvin Kabuye comes on for Tommi Jyry.
86
Update Update
On Saku Heiskanen, off Bob Nii Armah.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Boban Nikolov.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
76
Update Update
David Babunski replaces Miguel Pires.
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Second yellow card issued to Nemanja Bosancic.
70
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Nemanja Bosancic.
68
Update Update
Saku Savolainen is on, and Akseli Puukko is off.
68
Update Update
Saikou Touray comes on for Gustav Engvall.
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Gustav Engvall.
62
Update Update
Dimitar Danev is coming on for Azer Omeragikj.
62
Update Update
Nemanja Bosancic comes on for Diego Castaneda.
62
Update Update
Nemanja Bosancic comes on for Diego Castaneda.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
53
Update Update
Mihail Manevski comes on for Ian Puleio.
49
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Bob Nii Armah scores, making it 0-2.
46
Update Update
Gerson Rodrigues comes on for Gerardo Joaquin Torres Herrera.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
30
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Mislav Matic.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Kadir Saglam.

CONCLUSION

The 0-2 result leaves KuPS with a lead heading into the second leg. Vardar must address the impact of the red card and their inability to convert possession into goals. KuPS demonstrated control after the opening goal and maintained defensive organization throughout. The absence of xG metrics limits deeper analysis of chance creation but the scoreline reflects the efficiency patterns observed. Both teams will prepare adjustments for the return fixture where aggregate scoring becomes decisive. Vardar faces the task of overcoming the deficit without repeating structural issues seen here.