Varaždin vs Hajduk Split preview

Croatia flag 2026/2027 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Anđelko Herjavec Sun, 2 Aug - 4:30 PM
1. HNL
VaraždinNKV
2 1
Hajduk SplitHAJ
Full Time Sun, 2 Aug 4:30 PM
Round 1 Regular Season
Luka Mamic - 62'
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Varaždin defeated Hajduk Split 2-1 at home in a match that stayed level at 0-0 through halftime. Hajduk Split entered as the stronger side yet finished on the losing end despite controlling 54 percent of possession against Varaždin's 46 percent. No red cards were issued to players from either team during the contest. The result marked a significant deviation from typical expectations based on team strength assessments. Expected goals figures were not recorded for either side leaving performance evaluation reliant on other indicators. Varaždin capitalized on opportunities to secure the three points while the visitors were unable to convert their territorial advantage into a positive outcome. The fixture highlighted the potential for underdogs to overcome pre-match hierarchies through effective execution.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Varaždin produced a significant structural deviation as the match winner.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with recorded performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable to assess alignment.
  • Market alignment: The final result stayed aligned with pre-match indicators.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals values were available for this match.
  • Event impact: Second-half events proved decisive in the 2-1 scoreline.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred to create any outcome distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
P. Kolarić
P. Kolarić
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
I. Janić
I. Janić
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Knez
D. Knez
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
F. Dragasevic
F. Dragasevic
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Varaždin N. Šafarić
N. Šafarić
VS
Hajduk Split G. García García
G. García García
1.56
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.94
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Istra 1961 Rank: 66 W
Vukovar Rank: 59 W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 68 D
Hajduk Split Rank: 76 L
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 85 L
Rijeka Rank: 75 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vukovar Rank: 59 W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 68 D
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 85 L
Varaždin Rank: 71 W
Rijeka Rank: 75 D
Osijek Rank: 67 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 3 - 3
3

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.15
75.79
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Varaždin
Hajduk Split
Power Score
71.15
75.79
League Position
5
8
Global Rank
270
154

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Varaždin — Opponent-weighted form score
Hajduk Split — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Varaždin Hajduk Split

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Varaždin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hajduk Split

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Varaždin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hajduk Split
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.30
24.26
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.26
26.30
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Varaždin +0.15 Efficiency Index
vs
Hajduk Split -0.15 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Varaždin
Hajduk Split
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Varaždin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hajduk Split
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Varaždin Hajduk Split
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Varaždin Hajduk Split
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Varaždin
Hajduk Split
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Varaždin
vs
Hajduk Split
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Varaždin Hajduk Split
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Varaždin 0.24
Hajduk Split 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Varaždin Hajduk Split
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Varaždin 0.02
Hajduk Split 0.05
Varaždin
Hajduk Split
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • NKV had peak pressure around 39'.
  • NKV started the game with stronger pressure.
NKV Pressure HAJ Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: NKV reached the top pressure at 39' (67.47).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 8 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Varaždin NKV Home
8 matches
Hajduk Split HAJ Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
3
Draws
3
3
Losses
2
Goals
8
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
8
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-03T00:04:45+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 02, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 1 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Anđelko Herjavec
Capacity
10800
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Patrik Kolarić
Ivan Janić
Dino Knez
Filip Dragasevic

Statistics

Possession
NKV
48%
HAJ
52%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 3
42 Dangerous attacks 62
46 Possession 54
1 Corners 6
20 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

0 Penalties 1
5 Goal Kicks 5
5 Substitutions 4
17 Throwins 17
2 Assists 1
19 Dribble Attempts 10
11 Successful Dribbles 3
58 Successful Dribbles Percentage 30

Attacking

101 Attacks 116
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

62 Long Passes 30
367 Passes 433
292 Successful Passes 380
80 Successful Passes Percentage 88
28 Successful Long Passes 11
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37

Defensive

4 Saves 1
14 Tackles 12
4 Interceptions 11
53 Duels Won 34

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 23
2 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
12 Fouls 20

Lineup

Referee : Patrik Kolarić

Starting XI ▼

33
Josip Silic
Josip Silic Goalkeeper
7.56
4
Luka Skaricic
Luka Skaricic Defender
6.8
14
Roberto Puncec
Roberto Puncec (C) Defender
6.42
13
Mario Mladenovski
Mario Mladenovski
Defender46'
7.29
20
Gregor Sikosek
Gregor Sikosek Defender
6.46
16
Novak Tepsic
Novak Tepsic
Defender65'
6.9
23
Frane Maglica
Frane Maglica Defender
6.44
10
Aleksa Latkovic
Aleksa Latkovic Midfielder
6.71
21
Ivan Posavec
Ivan Posavec
Midfielder65'
6.44
22
Luka Mamic
Luka Mamic Midfielder
7.88
24
Mario Marina
Mario Marina Midfielder
6.43
8
Tomislav Duvnjak
Tomislav Duvnjak
Midfielder65'
6.39
28
Ivan Canjuga
Ivan Canjuga Midfielder
7.69
38
Iuri Tavares
Iuri Tavares Midfielder
7.28
5
Sven Lesjak
Sven Lesjak
Defender85'
6.44
17
Ivan Mamut
Ivan Mamut Attacker
6.84
Referee : Patrik Kolarić

Starting XI ▼

33
Toni Silic
Toni Silic Goalkeeper
6.32
3
Roko Gabrić
Roko Gabrić Defender
6.72
15
Dario Maresic
Dario Maresic
Defender46'
6.8
5
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck Defender
6.71
22
Mathieu Acapandié
Mathieu Acapandié Defender
5.9
32
Simun Hrgovic
Simun Hrgovic Defender
6.43
4
Adrion Pajaziti
Adrion Pajaziti Midfielder
6.54
11
Michele Sego
Michele Sego Midfielder
6.3
17
Dario Melnjak
Dario Melnjak Midfielder
6.51
23
Marin Soticek
Marin Soticek
Attacker46'
6.48
20
Alberto del Moral
Alberto del Moral Midfielder
6.65
9
Dalisson de Almeida
Dalisson de Almeida
Midfielder46'
6.19
21
Rokas Pukstas
Rokas Pukstas Midfielder
7.16
10
Marko Livaja
Marko Livaja (C) Attacker
6.35

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Marko Livaja
Goalkeeper save
88'
Event
Abdoulie Sanyang
Penalty awarded
Event
Sven Lesjak → Iuri Tavares
9th Substitution
85'
79'
Event
Mathieu Acapandié
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Tomislav Duvnjak → Mario Marina
6th Substitution
65'
Event
Ivan Posavec → Aleksa Latkovic
7th Substitution
65'
Event
Novak Tepsic → Gregor Sikosek
8th Substitution
65'
Event
Luka Mamic
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
62'
Event
Mario Marina
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
57'
56'
Event
Rokas Pukstas
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Mario Mladenovski
Header / 1st Goal
53'
Event
Frane Maglica
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
47'
Event
Mario Mladenovski → Roberto Puncec
4th Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Dalisson de Almeida → Alberto del Moral
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Dario Maresic → Roko Gabrić
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Marin Soticek → Dario Melnjak
5th Substitution
1ST-HALF
23'
Event
Adrion Pajaziti
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Attempt Attempt
Marko Livaja takes a header, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Marko Livaja takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved! Marko Livaja's attempt is unsuccessful.
88
Update Update
VAR decision confirms a penalty awarded to Abdoulie Sanyang.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Abdoulie Sanyang receives a yellow card.
86
Attempt Attempt
Adrion Pajaziti takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
85
Update Update
Sven Lesjak is on, and Iuri Tavares is off.
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mathieu Acapandie receives a yellow card.
78
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
77
Attempt Attempt
Dalisson de Almeida takes a shot with his right foot, but it is blocked.
76
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Mamut takes a left-footed shot but misses.
74
Attempt Attempt
Dario Maresic takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
71
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Ivan Mamut with his right foot is blocked.
71
Attempt Attempt
Luka Mamic's right-footed shot is blocked.
70
Attempt Attempt
Marko Livaja takes a right-footed shot but misses.
65
Update Update
Tomislav Duvnjak comes on for Mario Marina.
65
Update Update
Novak Tepsic is on, and Gregor Sikosek is off.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Ivan Posavec comes on for Aleksa Latkovic.
62
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Luka Mamic scores with a right-footed shot.
62
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Luka Mamic scores to make it 2-1, assisted by Aleksa Latkovic.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Mario Marina.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot on goal! Rokas Pukstas takes a left-footed shot.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Rokas Pukstas scores to make it 1-1, assisted by Adrion Pajaziti.
55
Attempt Attempt
Dalisson de Almeida takes a left-footed shot but misses.
53
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot from Mario Mladenovski with a header results in a goal.
53
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
49
Attempt Attempt
Adrion Pajaziti takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
47
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Frane Maglica receives a yellow card.
46
Update Update
Mario Mladenovski is on, and Roberto Puncec is off.
46
Update Update
Marin Soticek comes on for Dario Melnjak.
46
Update Update
Abdoulie Sanyang is on, and Michele Sego is off.
46
Update Update
Dalisson de Almeida is on, and Alberto del Moral is off.
46
Update Update
Dario Maresic is on, and Roko Gabric is off.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
42
Attempt Attempt
Marko Livaja takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
37
Attempt Attempt
Luka Mamic takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
34
Attempt Attempt
Iuri Tavares takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
27
Attempt Attempt
Adrion Pajaziti takes a left-footed shot but misses.
23
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Adrion Pajaziti.
15
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Mamut takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.
12
Attempt Attempt
Aleksa Latkovic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
12
Attempt Attempt
Luka Mamic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
11
Attempt Attempt
Iuri Tavares takes a left-footed shot but misses.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Patrik Kolaric.

CONCLUSION

The 2-1 victory by Varaždin over Hajduk Split demonstrated how possession advantages do not always translate into results when execution differs. With the game tied at halftime the home side adjusted effectively to claim the points against a favored opponent. Absence of expected goals limited deeper statistical review yet the final margin reflected clear differences in finishing. Both teams avoided disciplinary issues that could have altered dynamics leaving the contest decided on open play. This outcome underscores variability in league matches where stronger sides can be edged out by organized resistance. Varaždin's success provides a case study in capitalizing on limited opportunities while maintaining defensive structure throughout the second half.