Valletta vs Raków Częstochowa preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
MFA Centenary Stadium Thu, 30 Jul - 5:30 PM
Europa Conference League
VallettaVAL
0 4
Raków CzęstochowaRAK
Full Time Thu, 30 Jul 5:30 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 1 - 7
|
Goal
Petar Sekulovic 60' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Valletta 0–4 Raków Częstochowa. The result saw Raków Częstochowa take the points. Raków Częstochowa showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 40%–60%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Valletta 0-4 Raków Częstochowa. Raków Częstochowa showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
P. Ilić
P. Ilić
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
M. Pašajlić
M. Pašajlić
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
U. Radovanović
U. Radovanović
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
P. Janjuš
P. Janjuš
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Valletta T. Micallef
T. Micallef
VS
Raków Częstochowa D. Kroczek
D. Kroczek
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 71 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Valletta Rank: W
Fiorentina Rank: 82 L
Fiorentina Rank: 82 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Valletta
18.13%
Draw
21.31%
Away Raków Częstochowa
60.57%

Movement

Changes since opening
Valletta
+16.69%
Draw
+19.41%
Raków Częstochowa
-36.09%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
29.61
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Valletta
Raków Częstochowa
Power Score
50
29.61
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Valletta — Opponent-weighted form score
Raków Częstochowa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Valletta Raków Częstochowa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Valletta

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Raków Częstochowa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Valletta ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Raków Częstochowa
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
18.75
28.83
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.83
18.75
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Valletta -0.97 Efficiency Index
vs
Raków Częstochowa +0.97 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Valletta
Raków Częstochowa
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Valletta ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Raków Częstochowa
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Valletta Raków Częstochowa
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Valletta Raków Częstochowa
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Valletta
Raków Częstochowa
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Valletta
vs
Raków Częstochowa
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Valletta Raków Częstochowa
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Valletta 0.20
Raków Częstochowa 0.21
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Valletta Raków Częstochowa
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Valletta 0.06
Raków Częstochowa 0.00
Valletta
Raków Częstochowa
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RAK had peak pressure around 69'.
  • RAK started the game with stronger pressure.
VAL Pressure RAK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RAK reached the top pressure at 69' (54.77).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Valletta VAL Home
1 matches
Raków Częstochowa RAK Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
1
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-31T00:03:40+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 30, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 1 - 7
Stadium
MFA Centenary Stadium
Capacity
3000
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Pavle Ilić
Milan Pašajlić
Uroš Radovanović
Predrag Janjuš

Statistics

Possession
VAL
44%
RAK
56%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 4
6 Shots 2
30 Dangerous attacks 66
40 Possession 60
0 Corners 3
13 Free kicks 10
3 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

80 Ball Safe 69
6 Goal Attempts 8
5 Substitutions 5
16 Throwins 11
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

82 Attacks 109

Discipline

1 Offsides 3
10 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Pavle Ilić

Starting XI ▼

90
Adilson Maringá
Adilson Maringá Goalkeeper
5.38
4
Ermin Bicakcic
Ermin Bicakcic Defender
5.7
33
Emmanuel Mbende
Emmanuel Mbende Defender
5.7
55
Sava Radic
Sava Radic Defender
5.7
44
Neil Anthony Micallef
Neil Anthony Micallef
Defender78'
6.5
94
Manuel Morello
Manuel Morello Defender
5.88
3
Matthias Ellul
Matthias Ellul
Defender67'
6.26
10
Brandon Paiber
Brandon Paiber (C) Midfielder
6.09
21
Roko Prsa
Roko Prsa Midfielder
6.18
80
Keyon Ewurum
Keyon Ewurum
Midfielder58'
6.37
23
Petar Sekulovic
Petar Sekulovic Midfielder
5.51
19
Diogo Tavares
Diogo Tavares Attacker
6.35
32
Alex Tanque
Alex Tanque Attacker
6.38
9
Bruno Gomes
Bruno Gomes
Attacker58'
6.46
77
Thaylor
Thaylor Attacker
6.39
8
Andrea Zammit
Andrea Zammit
Attacker46'
6.43
Referee : Pavle Ilić

Starting XI ▼

1
Kacper Trelowski
Kacper Trelowski Goalkeeper
6.5
7
Fran Tudor
Fran Tudor (C) Defender
6.5
77
Didí Gaucho
Didí Gaucho Defender
6.5
2
Jerzy Napieraj
Jerzy Napieraj Midfielder
6.5
6
Oskar Repka
Oskar Repka Midfielder
6.5
22
Abraham Ojo
Abraham Ojo
Midfielder67'
6.5
10
Vladyslav Kochergin
Vladyslav Kochergin Midfielder
6.5
19
Michael Ameyaw
Michael Ameyaw Midfielder
6.69
26
Erick Otieno
Erick Otieno
Midfielder68'
6.5
20
Jean Carlos Silva
Jean Carlos Silva Midfielder
6.5
17
Jakub Jendryka
Jakub Jendryka
Midfielder58'
6.5
21
Tomasz Pienko
Tomasz Pienko Midfielder
6.69
11
Mahir Emreli
Mahir Emreli
Attacker68'
6.5
88
Ádin Molnár
Ádin Molnár Midfielder
7.06
15
Oliwier Kwiatkowski
Oliwier Kwiatkowski
Midfielder58'
6.61
9
Patryk Makuch
Patryk Makuch Attacker
6.86

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Neil Anthony Micallef → Sava Radic
10th Substitution
78'
78'
Event
Patryk Makuch
Field Goal / 4th Goal
68'
Event
Mahir Emreli → Tomasz Pienko
8th Substitution
68'
Event
Erick Otieno → Michael Ameyaw
9th Substitution
Event
Matthias Ellul → Manuel Morello
6th Substitution
67'
67'
Event
Abraham Ojo → Oskar Repka
7th Substitution
Event
Petar Sekulovic
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
60'
Event
Keyon Ewurum → Roko Prsa
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Bruno Gomes → Alex Tanque
3rd Substitution
58'
58'
Event
Jakub Jendryka → Jean Carlos Silva
4th Substitution
58'
Event
Oliwier Kwiatkowski → Ádin Molnár
5th Substitution
54'
Event
Ádin Molnár
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
Event
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
53'
Event
Andrea Zammit → Thaylor
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Petar Sekulovic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45+1'
Event
Sava Radić
4th Yellowcard
45+1'
Event
Thaylor
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
39'
31'
Event
Tomasz Pienko
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
22'
Event
Michael Ameyaw
Field Goal / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Patryk Makuch scores, making it 0-4.
78
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-4.
68
Update Update
Mahir Madatov is on, and Tomasz Pienko is off.
68
Update Update
Erick Ouma Otieno is on, and Michael Ameyaw is off.
67
Update Update
On comes Ojo Abraham, off goes Oskar Repka.
67
Update Update
Matthias Ellul replaces Manuel Morello.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Second yellow card issued to Petar Sekulovic.
60
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card issued.
58
Update Update
On Bruno Gomes de Oliveira Conceicao, Off A. Bruno Gomes de Oliveira Conceicao.
58
Update Update
Oliwier Kwiatkowski comes on for Adin Molnar.
58
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card issued.
57
Update Update
On Bruno Gomes de Oliveira Conceicao, off A. Bruno Gomes de Oliveira Conceicao.
55
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-3.
53
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Andrea Zammit comes on for Brian Thaylor.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sava Radic receives a yellow card.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Brian Thaylor Lubanzadio Aldama.
31
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Tomasz Pienko scores, making it 0-2.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
22
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Pavle Ilic.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Valletta 0-4 Raków Częstochowa. Structural assessment: Raków Częstochowa exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.