Vålerenga vs Lillestrøm preview
2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Intility Arena
Sun, 19 Apr - 12:30 PM
Round 5 ·
Regular Season
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Aug 13
CONTEXT
Lillestrøm claimed a convincing 2-0 away victory over Vålerenga in a match marked by their clear dominance. The first half ended goalless, with both teams locked at 0-0 despite Lillestrøm holding 60% possession to Vålerenga's 40%. The second half saw Lillestrøm break through, scoring twice without reply, showcasing their superior control and finishing. No red cards were shown, ensuring uninterrupted play, and as the pre-identified stronger team, Lillestrøm delivered a performance that significantly deviated from pre-match market structure by 63.5%. Vålerenga struggled to create chances, unable to capitalize on home advantage. Efficiency metrics aligned with expectations, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. This result underscores Lillestrøm's tactical edge and second-half execution.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: The match result showed a significant 63.5% structural deviation favoring Lillestrøm.
-
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match expectations.
-
xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
-
Market alignment: Market alignment was not achieved.
-
xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
-
Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the outcome.
-
Red card distortion: Absence of red cards caused no distortion to the result.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Røvig Sletner
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
18.27
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.22
?. Simon Ytterland
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
18.27
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.22
K. Haglund
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
18.27
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.22
S. Kringstad
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
18.27
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.22
G. Bakke
VS
H. Ødegaard
1.4
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
2.5
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fredrikstad
Rank:
D
Viking
Rank:
L
Rosenborg
Rank:
W
Sandefjord
Rank:
W
Viking
Rank:
L
Kristiansund
Rank:
D
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Tromsø
Rank:
D
Start
Rank:
W
Molde
Rank:
W
Aalesund
Rank:
W
13
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 10 - 13
13
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Vålerenga
37.58%
Draw
25.92%
Lillestrøm
36.49%
Movement
Changes since opening
Vålerenga
+37.2%
Draw
+17.24%
Lillestrøm
-54.45%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.35
32.82
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Vålerenga
Lillestrøm
Power Score
24.35
32.82
League Position
6
2
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Vålerenga
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Lillestrøm
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Vålerenga Lillestrøm
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Vålerenga
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Lillestrøm
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Vålerenga
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Lillestrøm
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
52.50
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.25
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Vålerenga
+2.16
Efficiency Index
vs
Lillestrøm
-2.16
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Vålerenga
Lillestrøm
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Vålerenga
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Lillestrøm
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Vålerenga
Lillestrøm
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Vålerenga
Lillestrøm
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Vålerenga
Lillestrøm
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Vålerenga
vs
Lillestrøm
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
Vålerenga
Lillestrøm
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
Vålerenga
0.30
Lillestrøm
0.37
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
Vålerenga
Lillestrøm
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
Vålerenga
0.05
Lillestrøm
0.00
Vålerenga
Lillestrøm
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- VIF had peak pressure around 73'.
- VIF started the game with stronger pressure.
VIF Pressure
LILL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
VIF reached the top pressure at 73' (95.70).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 36 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Vålerenga
VIF
Home
36
matches
Lillestrøm
LILL
Away
Match Record
13
Wins
13
10
Draws
10
13
Losses
13
Goals
45
Goals Scored
43
43
Goals Conceded
45
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:02:36+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
4-4-2
Match Formation
4-1-4-1
12 P. Dahlberg
26 Y. Paintsil
5 S. Foss
29 Y. Ibrahimaj
C. Jebara
#1980'
17 E. Bugale Kitolano
15 S. Drammeh
General Information
Date & Time
Apr 19, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 5 · Regular Season
Stadium
Intility Arena
Capacity
3000
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Stian Røvig Sletner
Øystein Simon Ytterland
Kim Haglund
Sigurd Smehus Kringstad
Next Match
Vålerenga
vs
Molde
League: Eliteserien
Kickoff: Sun, 26 Apr - 12:30 PM
Venue: Aker Stadion
Lillestrøm
vs
Bodø / Glimt
League: Eliteserien
Kickoff: Sun, 26 Apr - 5:15 PM
Venue: Åråsen Stadion
Statistics
Possession
VIF
44%
LILL
56%
Top Statistics
0
Goals
2
0
Big Chances Created
1
5
Shots
3
60
Dangerous attacks
43
40
Possession
60
13
Corners
6
7
Free kicks
10
3
Yellow Cards
5
Match Overview
11
Dribble Attempts
16
3
Successful Dribbles
5
6
Goal Kicks
11
22
Throwins
17
73
Ball Safe
87
27
Successful Dribbles Percentage
31
10
Goal Attempts
13
0
Injuries
1
5
Substitutions
6
0
Assists
2
Attacking
75
Attacks
100
9
Counter Attacks
4
Possession
13
Key Passes
14
325
Passes
524
59
Long Passes
45
29
Successful Long Passes
19
75
Successful Passes Percentage
83
49
Successful Long Passes Percentage
42
244
Successful Passes
434
Defensive
45
Duels Won
43
20
Tackles
15
10
Interceptions
4
4
Saves
3
Build-up
38
Total Crosses
10
8
Accurate Crosses
3
Discipline
10
Fouls
7
1
Offsides
0
Lineup
Referee :
Sigurd Smehus Kringstad
Manager ▼
G. Bakke
Coach
Starting XI ▼
Substitutes ▼
Referee :
Sigurd Smehus Kringstad
Manager ▼
H. Ødegaard
Coach
Starting XI ▼
17
Eric Kitolano
Midfielder
6.84 19Camil Jebara
6.7Attacker80'
Substitutes ▼
1
Stefan Hagerup
Goalkeeper
22
John Kitolano
Defender
6
Harald Woxen
Midfielder
7
Linus Alperud
Midfielder
Events
2ND-HALF
90+14'
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+14'
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
90+11'
90+11'
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
90+10'
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+6'
10th Substitution
9th Substitution
90+1'
8th Substitution
90'
90'
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
87'
7th Substitution
86'
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
5th Substitution
80'
80'
Camil Jebara → Felix Vá
6th Substitution
80'
4th Substitution
3rd Substitution
79'
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
45+4'
9th Yellowcard
45+4'
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45'
39'
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Penalty disallowed
16'
CONCLUSION
Lillestrøm's 2-0 win over Vålerenga exemplifies their superiority, converting 60% possession into decisive second-half goals after a cautious first half. The significant 63.5% deviation from market structure highlights an underappreciated edge for the away side, who were marginally favored pre-match. Without red cards or disruptions, the result reflects pure execution, with efficiency in line despite missing xG insights. Vålerenga's home effort fell short, exposing vulnerabilities in chance creation. This outcome reinforces Lillestrøm's status as the stronger team, providing a clear post-match narrative of dominance and opportunism.
