Uruguay vs Spain preview

2026 World Cup, World
Guadalajara Stadium Tomorrow - 12:00 AM
World Cup
Uruguay URU
Spain ESP
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 12:00 AM
Round 3 Group Stage

CONTEXT

The 2026 World Cup group stage brings Uruguay and Spain together at Guadalajara Stadium for a contest that highlights contrasting team profiles. Spain arrives with the higher power score of 20.74, establishing a 4.4-point edge that underscores their overall strength. Uruguay sits in second place in domestic standings while Spain occupies the top spot. Recent form metrics favor Spain at 13.83 over Uruguay's 8.33, suggesting greater consistency heading into the fixture. Both sides operate without detailed efficiency or set-piece metrics, relying instead on broader indicators. The match offers a platform for Spain to leverage their structural superiority while Uruguay seeks to exploit any openings through organized play. This group-stage encounter promises tactical depth as the teams navigate early tournament objectives.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Spain holds a 4.4-point power score advantage with 20.74 compared to Uruguay's 16.3.
  • Form: Spain shows stronger recent form at 13.83 versus Uruguay's 8.33.
  • Squad: Uruguay ranks second domestically while Spain leads the standings.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics remain unavailable for both teams ahead of the match.
  • Transition: Transition metrics are not provided in the current data set.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece data relies on low-confidence proxies for Uruguay and Spain.
  • xVariable: Spain is identified as the stronger team by a 4.4-point margin.
  • Market: Uruguay 13.4% (Δ+0.3%) | Draw 24.4% (Δ+0.5%) | Spain 62.2% (Δ-0.9%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Uruguay M. Bielsa Caldera
M. Bielsa Caldera
VS
Spain L. De la Fuente Castillo
L. De la Fuente Castillo
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cape Verde Islands Rank: D
Saudi Arabia Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Saudi Arabia Rank: W
Cape Verde Islands Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Uruguay
13.41%
Draw
24.42%
Away Spain
62.17%

Movement

Changes since opening
Uruguay
+0.31%
Draw
+0.54%
Spain
-0.85%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
16.3
20.74
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Uruguay
Spain
Power Score
16.3
20.74
League Position
2
1
Global Rank
17
2

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Uruguay — Opponent-weighted form score
Spain — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Uruguay Spain

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Uruguay URU Home
0 matches
Spain ESP Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-06-26T00:01:37+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
N. Muslera Micol
Uruguay
23 N. Muslera Micol
G. Varela Olivera
Uruguay
13 G. Varela Olivera
S. Cáceres Ramos
Uruguay
3 S. Cáceres Ramos
M. Olivera Miramontes
Uruguay
16 M. Olivera Miramontes
J. Sanabria Magole
Uruguay
25 J. Sanabria Magole
R. Bentancur Colmán
Uruguay
6 R. Bentancur Colmán
M. Ugarte Ribeiro
Uruguay
5 M. Ugarte Ribeiro
A. Canobbio Graviz
Uruguay
14 A. Canobbio Graviz
F. Valverde Dipetta
Uruguay
8 F. Valverde Dipetta
M. Araújo Vilches
Uruguay
20 M. Araújo Vilches
F. Viñas Barboza
Uruguay
21 F. Viñas Barboza
U. Simón Mendibil
Spain
23 U. Simón Mendibil
M. Cucurella
Spain
24 M. Cucurella
A. Laporte
Spain
14 A. Laporte
P. Cubarsí Paredes
Spain
22 P. Cubarsí Paredes
P. Porro Sauceda
Spain
12 P. Porro Sauceda
Rodri
Spain
16 Rodri
P. López
Spain
20 P. López
D. Olmo Carvajal
Spain
10 D. Olmo Carvajal
N. Williams Arthuer
Spain
17 N. Williams Arthuer
M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
Spain
21 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
L. Yamal Nasraoui Ebana
Spain
19 L. Yamal Nasraoui Ebana

General Information

Date & Time
Jun 27, 2026, 12:00 AM
Competition
2026 World Cup, World · Round 3 · Group Stage
Stadium
Guadalajara Stadium
Capacity
45664
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ismail Elfath
Corey Parker
Kyle Atkins
Juan Calderón

Lineup

Referee : Ismail Elfath

Starting XI ▼

23
Fernando Muslera
Fernando Muslera Goalkeeper
5.95
3
Sebastián Cáceres
Sebastián Cáceres Defender
6.67
13
Guillermo Varela
Guillermo Varela Defender
6.87
16
Mathías Olivera
Mathías Olivera Defender
7.13
25
Juan Manuel Sanabria
Juan Manuel Sanabria Defender
6.64
5
Manuel Ugarte
Manuel Ugarte Midfielder
6.73
6
Rodrigo Bentancur
Rodrigo Bentancur Midfielder
7.32
8
Federico Valverde
Federico Valverde Midfielder
7.18
14
Agustín Canobbio
Agustín Canobbio Attacker
7.06
20
Maxi Araújo
Maxi Araújo Attacker
8.05
21
Federico Viñas
Federico Viñas Attacker
6.69
Referee : Ismail Elfath

Starting XI ▼

23
Unai Simón
Unai Simón Goalkeeper
6.98
12
Pedro Porro
Pedro Porro Defender
8.18
14
Aymeric Laporte
Aymeric Laporte Defender
7.41
22
Pau Cubarsí
Pau Cubarsí Defender
7.5
24
Marc Cucurella
Marc Cucurella Defender
7.36
10
Dani Olmo
Dani Olmo Midfielder
6.97
16
Rodri
Rodri Midfielder
7.91
20
Pedri
Pedri Midfielder
7.94
17
Nico Williams
Nico Williams Attacker
6.32
19
Lamine Yamal
Lamine Yamal Attacker
7.52
21
Mikel Oyarzabal
Mikel Oyarzabal Attacker
8.25

CONCLUSION

Spain enters the Guadalajara fixture with measurable edges in power and form that shape expectations for controlled possession and structured attacks. Uruguay will look to maintain defensive shape and capitalize on transitions to offset the gap. Domestic positioning adds context to squad depth and preparation levels for both sides. Limited efficiency and set-piece insights shift focus toward overall game management and adaptability. The group-stage setting rewards balanced approaches that blend caution with opportunistic play. Spain's structural lead positions them to dictate tempo while Uruguay aims to disrupt rhythm through compact organization. Observers can anticipate a measured contest defined by tactical discipline rather than open exchanges.