Uruguay vs Spain preview

2026 World Cup, World
Guadalajara Stadium Sat, 27 Jun - 12:00 AM
World Cup
UruguayURU
0 1
SpainESP
Full Time Sat, 27 Jun 12:00 AM
Round 3 Group Stage
|
Goal
Álex Baena - 42'
Agustín Canobbio 90+5' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

The match between Uruguay and Spain ended in a 0-1 victory for the visitors. Spain scored in the first half to lead 0-1 at the break. A red card to Uruguay in the second half further tilted the game. Spain dominated possession with 67 percent compared to Uruguay's 33 percent. The expected goals stood at 0.28 for the home team and 0.66 for the away side. Despite the low scoring nature, the outcome reflected the underlying metrics accurately. Spain's control and the numerical advantage after the sending off ensured they secured the points without much trouble. The game showcased Spain's efficiency in capitalizing on their opportunities while Uruguay found it difficult to break down the defense.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Uruguay 0-1 Spain. Spain showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with overall team performance indicators.
  • xG alignment: Outcome proved consistent with xG values of 0.28 against 0.66.
  • Market alignment: Final result stayed aligned with pre-match projections for Spain.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations showed a -0.38 differential favoring the away team.
  • Event impact: Spain's win delivered a clear positive impact on their campaign standing.
  • Red card distortion: Red card to Uruguay introduced second half distortion to game flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
I. Elfath
I. Elfath
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
C. Parker
C. Parker
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
K. Atkins
K. Atkins
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Calderón
J. Calderón
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Uruguay M. Bielsa Caldera
M. Bielsa Caldera
VS
Spain L. De la Fuente Castillo
L. De la Fuente Castillo
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cape Verde Islands Rank: D
Saudi Arabia Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Saudi Arabia Rank: W
Cape Verde Islands Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Uruguay
16.92%
Draw
26.76%
Away Spain
56.32%

Movement

Changes since opening
Uruguay
+16.73%
Draw
+22.56%
Spain
-39.29%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
16.3
23.7
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Uruguay
Spain
Power Score
16.3
23.7
League Position
3
1
Global Rank
17
2

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Uruguay — Opponent-weighted form score
Spain — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Uruguay Spain

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Uruguay

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Spain

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Uruguay ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Spain
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.52
11.72
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
11.72
21.52
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Uruguay +0.88 Efficiency Index
vs
Spain -0.88 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Uruguay
Spain
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Uruguay
vs
Spain
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Uruguay Spain
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
16%
21%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.05 vs -0.14
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Uruguay Spain
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
21%
16%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.14 vs -0.05
Uruguay
Spain
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Uruguay
vs
Spain
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Uruguay Spain
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Uruguay 0.12
Spain 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Uruguay Spain
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Uruguay 0.03
Spain 0.00
Uruguay
Spain
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ESP had peak pressure around 46'.
  • ESP started the game with stronger pressure.
URU Pressure ESP Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ESP reached the top pressure at 46' (82.55).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
N. Muslera Micol
Substitution
Uruguay
23 N. Muslera Micol
G. Varela Olivera
Uruguay
13 G. Varela Olivera
S. Cáceres Ramos
Uruguay
3 S. Cáceres Ramos
M. Olivera Miramontes
Uruguay
16 M. Olivera Miramontes
J. Sanabria Magole
Substitution
Uruguay
25 J. Sanabria Magole
M. Ugarte Ribeiro
Substitution
Uruguay
5 M. Ugarte Ribeiro
A. Canobbio Graviz
Uruguay
14 A. Canobbio Graviz
R. Bentancur Colmán
Uruguay
6 R. Bentancur Colmán
F. Valverde Dipetta
Substitution
Uruguay
8 (C) F. Valverde Dipetta
M. Araújo Vilches
Uruguay
20 M. Araújo Vilches
D. Núñez Ribeiro
Uruguay
9 D. Núñez Ribeiro

General Information

Date & Time
Jun 27, 2026, 12:00 AM
Competition
2026 World Cup, World · Round 3 · Group Stage
Stadium
Guadalajara Stadium
Capacity
45664
Attendance
45065
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ismail Elfath
Corey Parker
Kyle Atkins
Juan Calderón

Statistics

Possession
URU
38%
ESP
62%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 4
42 Dangerous attacks 37
33 Possession 67
1 Corners 6
16 Free kicks 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

56 Ball Safe 73
5 Goal Kicks 6
5 Goal Attempts 4
4 Substitutions 5
17 Throwins 10
0 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Successful Headers 16
0 Assists 1
1 Injuries 3
15 Dribble Attempts 22
7 Successful Dribbles 10
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45

Attacking

94 Attacks 107
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

43 Long Passes 34
301 Passes 623
228 Successful Passes 553
76 Successful Passes Percentage 89
5 Key Passes 6
15 Successful Long Passes 18
35 Successful Long Passes Percentage 53

Defensive

0 Saves 2
25 Tackles 17
14 Interceptions 9
50 Duels Won 56

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 12
1 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

5 Offsides 2
14 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Ismail Elfath

Starting XI ▼

23
Fernando Muslera
Fernando Muslera Goalkeeper
5.78
1
Sergio Rochet
Sergio Rochet
Goalkeeper46'
6.5
3
Sebastián Cáceres
Sebastián Cáceres Defender
6.35
13
Guillermo Varela
Guillermo Varela Defender
6.58
16
Mathías Olivera
Mathías Olivera Defender
6.88
25
Juan Manuel Sanabria
Juan Manuel Sanabria Defender
6.78
18
Brian Rodríguez
Brian Rodríguez
Attacker70'
6.3
5
Manuel Ugarte
Manuel Ugarte Midfielder
6.7
7
Nicolás de la Cruz
Nicolás de la Cruz
Midfielder45'
6.7
6
Rodrigo Bentancur
Rodrigo Bentancur Midfielder
6.87
8
Federico Valverde
Federico Valverde (C) Midfielder
6.67
21
Federico Viñas
Federico Viñas
Attacker57'
6.79
14
Agustín Canobbio
Agustín Canobbio Midfielder
6.27
20
Maxi Araújo
Maxi Araújo Midfielder
6.82
9
Darwin Núñez
Darwin Núñez Attacker
6.44
Referee : Ismail Elfath

Starting XI ▼

23
Unai Simón
Unai Simón Goalkeeper
7.12
5
Marcos Llorente
Marcos Llorente Defender
7.41
14
Aymeric Laporte
Aymeric Laporte Defender
7.32
22
Pau Cubarsí
Pau Cubarsí Defender
7.18
24
Marc Cucurella
Marc Cucurella Defender
6.76
6
Mikel Merino
Mikel Merino Midfielder
6.63
10
Dani Olmo
Dani Olmo
Midfielder60'
6.96
15
Álex Baena
Álex Baena Midfielder
7.23
11
Yéremy Pino
Yéremy Pino
Midfielder66'
6.31
16
Rodri
Rodri (C) Midfielder
6.86
19
Lamine Yamal
Lamine Yamal Midfielder
6.48
17
Nico Williams
Nico Williams
Attacker76'
6.56
20
Pedri
Pedri Midfielder
7.16
8
Fabián Ruiz
Fabián Ruiz
Midfielder60'
6.81
21
Mikel Oyarzabal
Mikel Oyarzabal Attacker
6.44
7
Ferran Torres
Ferran Torres
Attacker76'
6.37

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Agustín Canobbio
Foul / 1st Redcard
90+5'
Event
Nicolás de la Cruz
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+3'
76'
Event
Ferran Torres → Mikel Oyarzabal
8th Substitution
76'
Event
Nico Williams → Lamine Yamal
9th Substitution
Event
Brian Rodríguez → Juan Manuel Sanabria
7th Substitution
70'
66'
Event
Yéremy Pino → Álex Baena
6th Substitution
60'
Event
Dani Olmo → Mikel Merino
4th Substitution
60'
Event
Fabián Ruiz → Pedri
5th Substitution
Event
Guillermo Varela
Off the ball foul / 3rd Yellowcard
58'
Event
Federico Viñas → Federico Valverde
3rd Substitution
57'
Event
Juan Manuel Sanabria
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
54'
Event
Sergio Rochet → Fernando Muslera
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Álex Baena
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Nicolás de la Cruz → Manuel Ugarte
1st Substitution
45'
42'
Event
Álex Baena
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Red Card Red Card Important
Agustín Canobbio from Uruguay receives a red card.
90
Update Update
Agustín Canobbio commits a foul for Uruguay.
90
Update Update
Pau Cubarsí from Spain is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Nicolás de la Cruz commits a foul for Uruguay.
90
Update Update
Nico Williams wins a free kick for Spain in the defensive half.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nicolás de la Cruz from Uruguay receives a yellow card for a foul.
90
Update Update
Nico Williams is caught offside for Spain.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Federico Viñas commits a foul for Uruguay.
90
Update Update
Dani Olmo from Spain is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
89
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
87
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Yéremy Pino from Spain.
86
Attempt Attempt
Ferran Torres from Spain hits the bar with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, assisted by Fabián Ruiz.
85
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Nicolás de la Cruz from Uruguay has his right-footed shot from outside the box saved in the bottom left corner by Unai Simón from Spain. Darwin Núñez provided the assist.
85
Update Update
Darwin Núñez is caught offside for Uruguay.
84
Update Update
Mathías Olivera commits a foul for Uruguay.
84
Update Update
Ferran Torres wins a free kick for Spain in the defensive half.
82
Corner Corner
Uruguay is awarded a corner after Unai Simón concedes.
81
Update Update
Agustín Canobbio commits a foul for Uruguay.
81
Update Update
Marc Cucurella from Spain is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
80
Update Update
Federico Viñas from Uruguay is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
80
Update Update
Rodri commits a foul for Spain.
78
Update Update
Agustín Canobbio of Uruguay is caught offside.
77
Update Update
Federico Viñas commits a foul for Uruguay.
77
Update Update
Aymeric Laporte from Spain is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
77
Update Update
Rodrigo Bentancur wins a free kick for Uruguay in the attacking half.
77
Update Update
Rodri commits a foul for Spain.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Spain: Nico Williams comes on for Lamine Yamal.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Spain: Ferran Torres comes on for Mikel Oyarzabal.
76
Update Update
Mathías Olivera commits a foul for Uruguay.
76
Update Update
Dani Olmo wins a free kick for Spain in the defensive half.
75
Update Update
Nicolás de la Cruz from Uruguay is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
75
Update Update
Dani Olmo commits a foul for Spain.
74
Update Update
Federico Viñas from Uruguay is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
74
Update Update
Rodri commits a foul for Spain.
70
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Uruguay: Brian Rodríguez comes on for Juan Manuel Sanabria.
68
Update Update
The match is currently on hold for a drinks break.
66
Update Update
Fabián Ruiz wins a free kick for Spain in the defensive half.
66
Update Update
Nicolás de la Cruz commits a foul for Uruguay.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Spain: Yéremy Pino comes on for Álex Baena.
64
Attempt Attempt
Federico Viñas from Uruguay misses an attempt with a left-footed shot from the left side of the six-yard box, sending it high and wide to the left. The assist came from Maxi Araújo's cross.
63
Attempt Attempt
Dani Olmo from Spain misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Spain: Fabián Ruiz comes on for Pedri.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Spain: Dani Olmo comes on for Mikel Merino.
59
Update Update
Rodrigo Bentancur commits a foul for Uruguay.
59
Update Update
Mikel Merino wins a free kick for Spain in the attacking half.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Guillermo Varela from Uruguay receives a yellow card.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Spain after Sebastián Cáceres concedes.
57
Update Update
Federico Viñas commits a handball for Uruguay.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Uruguay: Federico Viñas comes on for Federico Valverde.
56
Update Update
Maxi Araújo from Uruguay wins a free kick in the attacking half.
56
Update Update
Foul committed by Pau Cubarsí from Spain.
54
Update Update
Foul committed by Juan Manuel Sanabria of Uruguay.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Juan Manuel Sanabria of Uruguay receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
54
Update Update
Lamine Yamal wins a free kick for Spain in the defensive half.
48
Update Update
Maxi Araújo of Uruguay is caught offside.
46
Update Update
Agustín Canobbio wins a free kick for Uruguay on the right wing.
46
Update Update
Álex Baena commits a foul for Spain.
46
Update Update
Agustín Canobbio from Uruguay wins a free kick on the right wing.
46
Update Update
Álex Baena commits a foul for Spain.
46
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Álex Baena of Spain receives a yellow card for a foul.
46
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Uruguay 0, Spain 1.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Uruguay: Sergio Rochet comes on for Fernando Muslera.
45
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Mikel Oyarzabal's left-footed shot from outside the box goes wide to the right, assisted by Aymeric Laporte.
45
Update Update
Maxi Araújo from Uruguay wins a free kick on the left wing.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Mikel Merino (Spain).
45
Update Update
Rodrigo Bentancur commits a foul for Uruguay.
45
Update Update
Pedri wins a free kick for Spain in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
Agustín Canobbio commits a foul for Uruguay.
45
Update Update
Pedri from Spain wins a free kick in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
Guillermo Varela from Uruguay is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
45
Update Update
Pedri commits a foul for Spain.
45
Update Update
Maxi Araújo of Uruguay is caught offside.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 8 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Uruguay: Nicolás de la Cruz comes on for Manuel Ugarte due to an injury.
42
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Federico Valverde from Uruguay.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Spain leads 1-0 against Uruguay. Álex Baena scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
40
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
39
Attempt Attempt
Darwin Núñez from Uruguay misses a right-footed shot from over 35 yards to the left, assisted by Manuel Ugarte during a fast break.
39
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Mikel Oyarzabal from Spain.
37
Update Update
Maxi Araújo from Uruguay wins a free kick in the attacking half.
37
Update Update
Marcos Llorente commits a foul for Spain.
36
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Rodrigo Bentancur from Uruguay, who took a right-footed shot from outside the box.
32
Attempt Attempt
Agustín Canobbio's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked.
32
Update Update
Agustín Canobbio from Uruguay is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
32
Update Update
Álex Baena commits a foul for Spain.
26
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
23
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
20
Corner Corner
Spain wins a corner after Agustín Canobbio concedes.
19
Attempt Attempt
Lamine Yamal's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Pedri.
17
Corner Corner
Attempt missed. Pau Cubarsí's header from the center of the box goes to the right. He was assisted by Álex Baena, who delivered a cross after a corner.
16
Corner Corner
Spain wins a corner after Manuel Ugarte concedes.
13
Update Update
Pedri from Spain wins a free kick in the defensive half.
13
Update Update
Rodrigo Bentancur commits a foul for Uruguay.
12
Update Update
Agustín Canobbio from Uruguay is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
12
Update Update
Marc Cucurella commits a foul for Spain.
12
Update Update
Darwin Núñez is caught offside for Uruguay.
11
Update Update
Lamine Yamal is caught offside for Spain.
8
Corner Corner
Spain wins a corner after Juan Manuel Sanabria concedes.
8
Corner Corner
Spain wins a corner after Guillermo Varela concedes.
6
Update Update
Foul committed by Mikel Merino (Spain).
6
Update Update
Rodrigo Bentancur wins a free kick for Uruguay in the attacking half.
4
Update Update
Darwin Núñez from Uruguay wins a free kick in the attacking half.
4
Update Update
Foul committed by Aymeric Laporte (Spain).
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Ismail Elfath.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Uruguay 0-1 Spain. Structural assessment: Spain exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.