Universitatea Craiova vs ML Vitebsk preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Stadionul Ion Oblemenco (Craiova) Wed, 15 Jul - 5:30 PM
Champions League
Universitatea CraiovaUCR
1 0
ML VitebskML Vitebsk
Full Time Wed, 15 Jul 5:30 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 5 - 1
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Universitatea Craiova 1–0 ML Vitebsk. The result saw Universitatea Craiova take the points. Universitatea Craiova showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 49%–51%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: A significant 30.7 percent deviation occurred for Universitatea Craiova relative to pre-match indicators.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expectations across both teams.
  • xG alignment: No xG data was recorded preventing any alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: The final outcome aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals values were unavailable for this fixture.
  • Event impact: The second-half goal produced the 1-0 result and 6-1 aggregate.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred to influence match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Rúsz
M. Rúsz
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
B. Buzás
B. Buzás
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
G. Vígh-Tarsonyi
G. Vígh-Tarsonyi
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
G. Bogár
G. Bogár
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Universitatea Craiova F. Amaral Rino Coelho
F. Amaral Rino Coelho
VS
ML Vitebsk F. Sokolinskiy
F. Sokolinskiy
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
ML Vitebsk Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Universitatea Craiova Rank: 74 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Universitatea Craiova
69.34%
Draw
19.77%
Away ML Vitebsk
10.89%

Movement

Changes since opening
Universitatea Craiova
-24.96%
Draw
+14.71%
ML Vitebsk
+10.25%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Universitatea Craiova
ML Vitebsk
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Universitatea Craiova — Opponent-weighted form score
ML Vitebsk — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Universitatea Craiova ML Vitebsk

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Universitatea Craiova

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

ML Vitebsk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Universitatea Craiova ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy ML Vitebsk
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
46.12
28.92
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.92
46.12
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Universitatea Craiova +1.46 Efficiency Index
vs
ML Vitebsk -1.46 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Universitatea Craiova
ML Vitebsk
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Universitatea Craiova ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy ML Vitebsk
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Universitatea Craiova ML Vitebsk
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Universitatea Craiova ML Vitebsk
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Universitatea Craiova
ML Vitebsk
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Universitatea Craiova
vs
ML Vitebsk
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Universitatea Craiova ML Vitebsk
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Universitatea Craiova 0.26
ML Vitebsk 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Universitatea Craiova ML Vitebsk
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Universitatea Craiova 0.00
ML Vitebsk 0.01
Universitatea Craiova
ML Vitebsk
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • UCR had peak pressure around 17'.
  • UCR started the game with stronger pressure.
UCR Pressure ML Vitebsk Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: UCR reached the top pressure at 17' (61.48).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Universitatea Craiova UCR Home
1 matches
ML Vitebsk ML Vitebsk Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
4
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-16T00:00:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 15, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 5 - 1
Stadium
Stadionul Ion Oblemenco (Craiova)
Capacity
30944
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Márton Rúsz
Balázs Buzás
Gergő Vígh-Tarsonyi
Gergő Bogár

Statistics

Possession
UCR
53%
ML Vitebsk
47%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
10 Shots 7
72 Dangerous attacks 55
49 Possession 51
8 Corners 6
14 Free kicks 16
3 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

77 Ball Safe 79
20 Goal Attempts 12
5 Substitutions 5
20 Throwins 17
0 Injuries 2

Attacking

95 Attacks 88

Defensive

8 Saves 13

Discipline

2 Offsides 5
16 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Márton Rúsz

Starting XI ▼

21
Laurențiu Popescu
Laurențiu Popescu Goalkeeper
6.5
3
Oleksandr Romanchuk
Oleksandr Romanchuk Defender
6.5
24
Nikola Stevanovic
Nikola Stevanovic
Defender46'
6.5
15
Juraj Badelj
Juraj Badelj Defender
6.5
28
Adrian Rus
Adrian Rus Defender
6.49
8
Tudor Băluță
Tudor Băluță Midfielder
6.5
11
Nicușor Bancu
Nicușor Bancu
Midfielder73'
6.69
17
Carlos Mora
Carlos Mora Midfielder
6.5
20
Alexandru Cicâldău
Alexandru Cicâldău Midfielder
6.5
23
Samuel Teles
Samuel Teles Midfielder
6.5
5
Anzor Mekvabishvili
Anzor Mekvabishvili
Midfielder86'
6.61
9
Assad Al-Hamlawi
Assad Al-Hamlawi Attacker
6.46
22
Simon Elisor
Simon Elisor
Attacker46'
6.5
10
Ștefan Baiaram
Ștefan Baiaram Attacker
6.5
12
Monday Etim
Monday Etim Attacker
6.46
19
Heri Tavares
Heri Tavares
Attacker46'
6.5
Referee : Márton Rúsz

Starting XI ▼

1
Pavel Pavlyuchenko
Pavel Pavlyuchenko Goalkeeper
6.12
6
Kirill Gomanov
Kirill Gomanov Defender
6.26
20
Zakhar Volkov
Zakhar Volkov Defender
6.26
10
Denilho Cleonise
Denilho Cleonise Midfielder
6.37
12
Radivoj Bosic
Radivoj Bosic Midfielder
6.37
15
Valeriy Bocherov
Valeriy Bocherov Midfielder
6.5
8
Silas Gnaka
Silas Gnaka
Midfielder56'
6.37
22
Yan Skibskiy
Yan Skibskiy Midfielder
6.5
18
Vladislav Zhuk
Vladislav Zhuk
Midfielder76'
6.37
23
Sergey Balanovich
Sergey Balanovich Midfielder
6.5
45
Ilya Moskalenchik
Ilya Moskalenchik
Defender56'
6.26
27
Aleksandar Mesarovic
Aleksandar Mesarovic Midfielder
6.5
7
Timur Ivanov
Timur Ivanov
Attacker53'
6.46
55
Valeriy Gromyko
Valeriy Gromyko Midfielder
6.5
11
Shamar Nicholson
Shamar Nicholson
Attacker76'
6.46
80
Artem Kontsevoy
Artem Kontsevoy Midfielder
6.37

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Nicușor Bancu 
Field Goal / 1st Goal
90+1'
Event
Anzor Mekvabishvili → Samuel Teles
10th Substitution
86'
Event
Adrian Rus
Holding / 3rd Yellowcard
86'
76'
Event
Shamar Nicholson → Valeriy Gromyko
8th Substitution
76'
Event
Vladislav Zhuk → Yan Skibskiy
9th Substitution
Event
Nicușor Bancu  → Tudor Băluță
7th Substitution
73'
56'
Event
Silas Gnaka → Valeriy Bocherov
5th Substitution
56'
Event
Ilya Moskalenchik → Sergey Balanovich 
6th Substitution
53'
Event
Timur Ivanov → Aleksandar Mesarovic
4th Substitution
Event
Simon Elisor → Assad Al-Hamlawi
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Nikola Stevanovic → Oleksandr Romanchuk
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Heri Tavares → Monday Etim
3rd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Monday Etim
Roughing / 2nd Yellowcard
42'
Event
Assad Al-Hamlawi
Roughing / 1st Yellowcard
39'

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nicusor Bancu scores to make it 1-0.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
86
Update Update
Anzor Mekvabishvili comes on for Samuel Teles Pereira Nunes Silva.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Adrian Rusu receives a yellow card.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
76
Substitution Substitution
Vladislav Zhuk is substituted for Yan Skibskiy.
76
Update Update
Shamar Nicholson is on, and Valeriy Gromyko is off.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
73
Update Update
Nicusor Bancu is on, and Cristian Baluta is off.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
56
Update Update
Silas Gnaka is on, and Valeriy Bocherov is off.
56
Update Update
Ilya Moskalenchik is on, and Sergey Balanovich is off.
53
Update Update
Timur Ivanov comes on for Aleksandar Mesarovic.
47
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Simon Elisor comes on for Assad Al Hamlawi.
46
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Update Update
Heriberto Tavares is on, and Monday Etim is off.
46
Update Update
Nikola Stevanovic comes on for Oleksandr Romanchuk.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
42
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Monday Etim receives a yellow card.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Assad Al Hamlawi.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Marton Rusz.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Universitatea Craiova 1-0 ML Vitebsk. Structural assessment: Universitatea Craiova exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.