Union Saint-Gilloise vs Mechelen preview

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stade Joseph Mariën Sun, 10 May - 4:30 PM
Pro League
Union Saint-GilloiseUSG
MechelenMEC
KICKOFF : Sun, 10 May - 4:30 PM
Round 7 Championship Round

CONTEXT

Union Saint-Gilloise hosts Mechelen at Stade Joseph Mariën in the Pro League Championship Round of the 2025/2026 season. The home side commands a significant 15.9-point power advantage, with their 85.78 rating towering over Mechelen's 69.88, underscoring structural superiority. League standings reinforce this, as Union occupies 2nd place while Mechelen languishes in 5th. Form metrics further highlight the disparity, Union's 44.28 score more than doubling Mechelen's 22.22. Lacking recent outing details, focus shifts to overall momentum in this crucial phase. Home strength promises dominance, yet Mechelen's resilience could test defenses. Limited data on efficiency, transitions, and set pieces leaves room for surprises, but Union's edge positions them as favorites in a match pivotal for top finishes.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Union Saint-Gilloise possesses a 15.9-point power advantage with 85.78 rating over Mechelen's 69.88.
  • Form: Union Saint-Gilloise's form score stands at 44.28, surpassing Mechelen's 22.22.
  • Squad: Union Saint-Gilloise ranks 2nd domestically, ahead of Mechelen in 5th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data remains unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition statistics are not provided in current analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece metrics use low-confidence proxies without xG availability.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable due to data limitations.
  • Market: Union Saint-Gilloise 65.7% (Δ+0%) | Draw 21.2% (Δ+0%) | Mechelen 13.1% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Union Saint-Gilloise D. Hubert
D. Hubert
VS
Mechelen F. Vanderbiest
F. Vanderbiest
2.09
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.27
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sint-Truiden Rank: 77 L
Anderlecht Rank: 73 W
Gent Rank: 72 D
Club Brugge Rank: 84 W
Mechelen Rank: 70 W
Sint-Truiden Rank: 78 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gent Rank: 72 W
Sint-Truiden Rank: 76 L
Club Brugge Rank: 84 L
Anderlecht Rank: 73 L
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 86 L
Gent Rank: 71 D
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 2 - 5
5
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Union Saint-Gilloise
65.65%
Draw
21.22%
Away Mechelen
13.13%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
85.78
69.88
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Union Saint-Gilloise
Mechelen
Power Score
85.78
69.88
League Position
2
5
Global Rank
34
213

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Union Saint-Gilloise — Opponent-weighted form score
Mechelen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Union Saint-Gilloise Mechelen

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Union Saint-Gilloise USG Home
13 matches
Mechelen MEC Away
Match Record
6
Wins
5
2
Draws
2
5
Losses
6
Goals
13
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
13
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T01:38:16+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
I. Mirás Blanco
13 I. Mirás Blanco
J. Martinez Marsà
3 J. Martinez Marsà
R. Halhal
2 R. Halhal
T. St. Jago
33 T. St. Jago
T. Koudou
7 T. Koudou
M. Servais
17 M. Servais
F. Hammar
6 F. Hammar
B. Antonio
38 B. Antonio
K. Mrabti
19 K. Mrabti
M. van Brederode
9 M. van Brederode
B. Boersma
28 B. Boersma

General Information

Date & Time
May 10, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 7 · Championship Round
Stadium
Stade Joseph Mariën
Capacity
50093
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Erik Lambrechts
Jo De Weirdt
Q. Blaise
Anthony Letellier

Expected Lineup

Referee : Erik Lambrechts

Starting XI ▼

37
Kjell Scherpen
Kjell Scherpen Goalkeeper
6.94
22
Ousseynou Niang
Ousseynou Niang Midfielder
6.82
25
Anan Khalaili
Anan Khalaili Midfielder
7.14
10
Anouar Ait El Hadj
Anouar Ait El Hadj Attacker
6.97
13
Kevin Rodríguez
Kevin Rodríguez Centre Forward
7
11
Guilherme Smith
Guilherme Smith Attacker
6.92
26
Ross Sykes
Ross Sykes Left Back
7.27
29
Massiré Sylla
Massiré Sylla Right Back
5.46
17
Rob Schoofs
Rob Schoofs Central Midfield
6.96
6
Kamiel Van De Perre
Kamiel Van De Perre Central Midfield
6.9
48
Fedde Leysen
Fedde Leysen Centre Back
6.9
Referee : Erik Lambrechts

Starting XI ▼

13
Nacho Miras
Nacho Miras Goalkeeper
7.17
38
Bill Antonio
Bill Antonio Midfielder
6.52
7
Thérence Koudou
Thérence Koudou Midfielder
6.76
9
Myron van Brederode
Myron van Brederode Attacker
7.14
28
Bouke Boersma
Bouke Boersma Attacker
6.76
6
Fredrik Hammar
Fredrik Hammar Central Midfield
7.03
17
Mathis Servais
Mathis Servais Central Midfield
6.99
19
Kerim Mrabti
Kerim Mrabti Attacking Midfield
6.88
33
Tommy St. Jago
Tommy St. Jago Right Back
6.81
2
Redouane Halhal
Redouane Halhal Centre Back
6.9
3
José Marsà
José Marsà Left Back
6.7

CONCLUSION

Union Saint-Gilloise enters as clear frontrunners, leveraging superior power, form, and positioning against a Mechelen side struggling to match pace. The 15.9-point gap signals potential for home control, especially in transitions and open play where data gaps exist but overall metrics favor Union. Mechelen must disrupt through set pieces or counters, though low-confidence info tempers expectations. Stadium atmosphere at Stade Joseph Mariën amplifies Union's push for vital points in the Championship Round. This fixture likely tilts decisively homeward, barring upsets from visitor grit.