Tre Fiori vs Larne preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Stadio Olimpico di Serravalle Tue, 7 Jul - 6:30 PM
Champions League
Tre FioriTFI
0 1
LarneLARN
Full Time Tue, 7 Jul 6:30 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Tre Fiori faced Larne in the opening leg of a two-match knockout series. The home side, considered the stronger team, fell to a narrow 0-1 loss. Larne scored in the first half and defended their lead effectively until the end. At halftime the score was already 0-1 in favor of the visitors. Possession statistics highlighted Larne's control, holding 66 percent of the ball while Tre Fiori managed 34 percent. No players were sent off during the contest, keeping the teams at full strength throughout. This outcome represents a significant deviation from pre-match projections favoring the home side. Larne's efficiency proved decisive in securing the victory away from home. The first leg result sets up an intriguing second leg for both sides.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Larne recorded a significant 35.3 percent deviation from expected performance levels.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with the overall match dynamics.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable for outcome alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: The final result aligned with market projections for the away side.
  • xG expectations: No xG metrics were recorded to compare against actual expectations.
  • Event impact: Larne's first half goal proved decisive in the 0-1 victory.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion occurred in team compositions.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Gasparyan
A. Gasparyan
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
M. Ghazaryan
M. Ghazaryan
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Hakobjanyan
A. Hakobjanyan
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
H. Nalbandyan
H. Nalbandyan
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Tre Fiori D. Girolomoni
D. Girolomoni
VS
Larne G. Haveron
G. Haveron
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Tre Fiori
13.89%
Draw
21.46%
Away Larne
64.65%

Movement

Changes since opening
Tre Fiori
+13.26%
Draw
+17.78%
Larne
-31.04%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Tre Fiori
Larne
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Tre Fiori — Opponent-weighted form score
Larne — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Tre Fiori Larne

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Tre Fiori

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Larne

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Tre Fiori ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Larne
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
14.26
22.42
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.42
14.26
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Tre Fiori -0.69 Efficiency Index
vs
Larne +0.69 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Tre Fiori
Larne
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Tre Fiori ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Larne
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Tre Fiori Larne
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Tre Fiori Larne
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Tre Fiori
Larne
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Tre Fiori
vs
Larne
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Tre Fiori Larne
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Tre Fiori 0.04
Larne 0.14
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Tre Fiori Larne
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Tre Fiori 0.01
Larne 0.00
Tre Fiori
Larne
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LARN had peak pressure around 22'.
  • TFI started the game with stronger pressure.
TFI Pressure LARN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LARN reached the top pressure at 22' (56.77).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 07, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Stadio Olimpico di Serravalle
Capacity
6664
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Artem Gasparyan
Mesrop Ghazaryan
Arman Hakobjanyan
Henrik Nalbandyan

Statistics

Possession
TFI
43%
LARN
57%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
2 Shots 7
57 Dangerous attacks 76
34 Possession 66
2 Corners 5
19 Free kicks 17
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 6
14 Throwins 19

Attacking

80 Attacks 86

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
10 Fouls 5

Lineup

Referee : Artem Gasparyan

Starting XI ▼

17
Michele Nardi
Michele Nardi Goalkeeper
6.12
2
Alessandro D'Addario
Alessandro D'Addario Defender
6.26
99
Giulio Ponticelli
Giulio Ponticelli
Defender57'
6.5
5
Simone Rea
Simone Rea Defender
6.26
12
Federico Pesaresi
Federico Pesaresi
Defender63'
6.5
6
Tom Syku
Tom Syku Defender
6.26
23
Alex Sirri
Alex Sirri Defender
6.26
24
Pietro Mengucci
Pietro Mengucci Defender
6.26
3
Mattia Sancisi
Mattia Sancisi
Defender56'
6.5
4
Brando Sami
Brando Sami Midfielder
6.37
20
Federico Benedettini
Federico Benedettini Midfielder
6.37
16
Federico Dolcini
Federico Dolcini
Midfielder78'
6.5
29
Romeo Bertani
Romeo Bertani Midfielder
6.37
9
Matteo Prandelli
Matteo Prandelli (C) Attacker
6.42
10
Tommaso Bernardi
Tommaso Bernardi Attacker
6.46
76
Nico Manara
Nico Manara
Attacker78'
6.5
Referee : Artem Gasparyan

Starting XI ▼

1
Rohan Ferguson
Rohan Ferguson Goalkeeper
6.5
3
Matt Ridley
Matt Ridley Defender
6.5
4
Aaron Donnelly
Aaron Donnelly Defender
6.5
5
Sam McClelland
Sam McClelland Defender
6.6
14
Benji Magee
Benji Magee
Midfielder46'
6.5
11
Sean Graham
Sean Graham Defender
6.49
47
James Simpson
James Simpson
Midfielder88'
23
Tomas Cosgrove
Tomas Cosgrove (C) Defender
6.5
6
Chris Gallagher
Chris Gallagher Midfielder
6.5
15
Ronan Doherty
Ronan Doherty Midfielder
6.5
22
Jordan McEneff
Jordan McEneff
Midfielder63'
6.5
26
Dan Bent
Dan Bent Midfielder
6.5
30
Matthew Lusty
Matthew Lusty Attacker
6.86
19
Kevin O'Hara
Kevin O'Hara
Attacker78'
6.5
45
Montel Gibson
Montel Gibson Attacker
6.5
17
Josh Ukek
Josh Ukek
Midfielder63'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
88'
Event
James Simpson → Sean Graham
10th Substitution
Event
Federico Dolcini → Federico Benedettini
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Nico Manara → Tommaso Bernardi
8th Substitution
78'
78'
Event
Kevin O'Hara → Matthew Lusty
9th Substitution
77'
Event
Matthew Lusty
Foul / Goal Disallowed
Event
Danilo Girolomoni
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
66'
Event
Federico Pesaresi → Simone Rea
5th Substitution
63'
63'
Event
Jordan McEneff → Ronan Doherty
4th Substitution
63'
Event
Josh Ukek → Montel Gibson
6th Substitution
Event
Matteo Prandelli 
Dangerous play / 3rd Yellowcard
58'
Event
Giulio Ponticelli → Alessandro D'Addario
3rd Substitution
57'
Event
Mattia Sancisi → Pietro Mengucci
2nd Substitution
56'
46'
Event
Benji Magee → Sam McClelland
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Matthew Lusty
Field Goal / 1st Goal
19'
Event
Sam McClelland
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
10'
Event
Sean Graham
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

88
Update Update
On Kevin O'Hara, off Matthew Lusty.
78
Update Update
Federico Dolcini replaces Federico Benedettini.
78
Update Update
Nico Manara comes on for Tommaso Leon Bernardi.
78
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Matthew Lusty scores, making it 0-2.
77
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-2.
63
Update Update
On Joshua Ukek, off Montel Gibson.
63
Substitution Substitution
Jordan McEneff is substituted on for Ronan Doherty.
63
Update Update
Federico Pesaresi is on, and Simone Rea is off.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Matteo Prandelli.
57
Update Update
Giulio Ponticelli comes on for Alessandro D'Addario.
56
Update Update
Mattia Sancisi comes on for Pietro Mengucci.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Benjamin Magee comes on for Sam McClelland.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
19
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Sam McClelland.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
10
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sean Graham receives a yellow card.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Artem Gasparyan.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Tre Fiori 0-1 Larne. Structural assessment: Larne exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.