Toulouse vs Olympique Lyonnais preview

France flag 2026/2027 Ligue 1, France
Stadium de Toulouse
Ligue 1
ToulouseTOU
0 2
Olympique LyonnaisLYO
Full Time
Round 1 Regular Season
|
Goal
Noah Nartey - 68'

CONTEXT

Toulouse hosted Olympique Lyonnais in a match that concluded 0-2 to the visitors. The halftime score stood at 0-0 with both sides level. Toulouse recorded 1.99 expected goals against 1.06 for Olympique Lyonnais while holding 48 percent possession to the away side's 52 percent. No red cards were shown to either team. Pre-match indicators identified Olympique Lyonnais as the stronger side and they claimed the three points. The result showed a significant deviation from expected patterns with the away team prevailing despite lower xG output. The outcome diverged from xG projections yet aligned with market signals. Efficiency metrics remained in line with established trends across both squads.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Toulouse 0-2 Olympique Lyonnais. Olympique Lyonnais showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency metrics stayed in line with established patterns for both teams.
  • xG alignment: The final result proved inconsistent with xG projections of 1.99 to 1.06.
  • Market alignment: The outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: Toulouse generated 1.99 xG while Olympique Lyonnais produced 1.06 xG for a 0.93 differential.
  • Event impact: No second half adjustments or notable events altered the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued and the match proceeded without such distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
G. Paradis
G. Paradis
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.32
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
N. Durand
N. Durand
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
G. Pasqualotti
G. Pasqualotti
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
P. Gaillouste
P. Gaillouste
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Toulouse J. Askou
J. Askou
VS
Olympique Lyonnais P. Rodrigues Fonseca
P. Rodrigues Fonseca
1.27
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.25
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nantes Rank: 71 D
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 83 W
Strasbourg Rank: 79 W
Monaco Rank: 81 D
Lens Rank: 86 L
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lens Rank: 86 L
Toulouse Rank: 75 L
Rennes Rank: 80 W
Auxerre Rank: 73 W
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 93 W
Lorient Rank: 75 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 1
1

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
75.21
82.93
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Toulouse
Olympique Lyonnais
Power Score
75.21
82.93
League Position
16
3
Global Rank
136
48

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Toulouse — Opponent-weighted form score
Olympique Lyonnais — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Toulouse Olympique Lyonnais

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Toulouse

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Olympique Lyonnais

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Toulouse ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Olympique Lyonnais
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.52
26.35
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.35
40.52
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Toulouse +1.50 Efficiency Index
vs
Olympique Lyonnais -1.50 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Toulouse
Olympique Lyonnais
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Toulouse
vs
Olympique Lyonnais
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Toulouse Olympique Lyonnais
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
45%
7%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.89 vs -0.07
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Toulouse Olympique Lyonnais
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
7%
45%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.07 vs -0.89
Toulouse
Olympique Lyonnais
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Toulouse
vs
Olympique Lyonnais
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Toulouse Olympique Lyonnais
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Toulouse 0.35
Olympique Lyonnais 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Toulouse Olympique Lyonnais
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Toulouse 0.04
Olympique Lyonnais 0.00
Toulouse
Olympique Lyonnais
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • TOU had peak pressure around 52'.
  • TOU started the game with stronger pressure.
TOU Pressure LYO Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: TOU reached the top pressure at 52' (72.06).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Toulouse TOU Home
4 matches
Olympique Lyonnais LYO Away
Match Record
2
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
2
Goals
5
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
5
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-23T00:49:20+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Ligue 1, France · Round 1 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadium de Toulouse
Capacity
33150
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Guillaume Paradis
Nicolas Durand
Gwenaël Pasqualotti
Pierre Gaillouste

Statistics

Possession
TOU
49%
LYO
51%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 0
12 Shots 5
49 Dangerous attacks 54
48 Possession 52
6 Corners 5
15 Free kicks 15
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

81 Ball Safe 91
10 Goal Kicks 13
12 Goal Attempts 7
5 Substitutions 5
19 Throwins 16
1 Hit Woodwork 1
11 Successful Headers 4
0 Assists 2
0 Injuries 1
19 Dribble Attempts 16
9 Successful Dribbles 8
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

Attacking

91 Attacks 96
4 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

50 Long Passes 51
433 Passes 475
371 Successful Passes 415
86 Successful Passes Percentage 87
16 Key Passes 9
29 Successful Long Passes 25
58 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49

Defensive

1 Saves 2
15 Tackles 15
7 Interceptions 13
48 Duels Won 42

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 14
4 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
15 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Guillaume Paradis

Starting XI ▼

16
Guillaume Restes
Guillaume Restes Goalkeeper
6.46
2
Rasmus Nicolaisen
Rasmus Nicolaisen (C) Defender
7
3
Mark McKenzie
Mark McKenzie Defender
6.85
12
Christ Tapé
Christ Tapé Defender
5.81
94
Ismail Diallo
Ismail Diallo Defender
6.24
22
Rafik Messali
Rafik Messali
Midfielder71'
6.33
7
Julián Vignolo
Julián Vignolo Midfielder
6.9
37
Ilyas Azizi
Ilyas Azizi
Attacker71'
6.58
8
Thomas Jørgensen
Thomas Jørgensen Midfielder
6.87
10
Yann Gboho
Yann Gboho Midfielder
6.5
11
Sion Oppong
Sion Oppong
Attacker80'
6.74
23
Cristian Cásseres Jr.
Cristian Cásseres Jr. Midfielder
7.69
31
Niklas Schmidt
Niklas Schmidt Midfielder
7.16
28
Mathis Saka
Mathis Saka
Midfielder86'
9
Santiago Hidalgo
Santiago Hidalgo Attacker
6.75
13
Jacen Russell-Rowe
Jacen Russell-Rowe
Attacker71'
6.38
Referee : Guillaume Paradis

Starting XI ▼

40
Rémy Descamps
Rémy Descamps Goalkeeper
7.07
13
Zachary Athekame
Zachary Athekame Defender
6.82
20
Felix Bacher
Felix Bacher Defender
7.21
22
Clinton Mata
Clinton Mata (C) Defender
7.45
76
Mohamed Ouédraogo
Mohamed Ouédraogo Defender
7.05
2
Mads Bidstrup
Mads Bidstrup Midfielder
6.96
6
Tanner Tessmann
Tanner Tessmann
Midfielder80'
6.3
39
Mathys de Carvalho
Mathys de Carvalho Midfielder
6.44
8
Corentin Tolisso
Corentin Tolisso
Midfielder69'
7.09
99
Noah Nartey
Noah Nartey Midfielder
7.23
23
Tyler Morton
Tyler Morton
Midfielder69'
6.73
24
Julien Duranville
Julien Duranville Attacker
6.77
11
Malick Fofana
Malick Fofana
Attacker63'
7.4
26
Kaïl Boudache
Kaïl Boudache Attacker
7.18
45
Rémi Himbert
Rémi Himbert Attacker
6.64
10
Pavel Sulc
Pavel Sulc
Midfielder63'
6.93

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Tanner Tessmann
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Mathis Saka → Niklas Schmidt
10th Substitution
86'
85'
Event
Malick Fofana
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Sion Oppong → Yann Gboho
8th Substitution
80'
80'
Event
Tanner Tessmann → Mads Bidstrup 
9th Substitution
Event
Ilyas Azizi → Julián Vignolo
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Rafik Messali → Ismail Diallo
6th Substitution
71'
Event
Jacen Russell-Rowe → Santiago Hidalgo
7th Substitution
71'
69'
Event
Tyler Morton → Noah Nartey
3rd Substitution
69'
Event
Corentin Tolisso  → Mathys de Carvalho
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Noah Nartey
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
63'
Event
Malick Fofana → Julien Duranville
1st Substitution
63'
Event
Pavel Sulc → Rémi Himbert
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Noah Nartey
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Niklas Schmidt
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
31'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tanner Tessmann receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Kail Boudache takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Kail Boudache takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Tanner Tessmann.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tanner Tessmann receives a yellow card.
87
Attempt Attempt
Kail Boudache takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
86
Attempt Attempt
Thomas Jorgensen takes a shot with his right foot, but it is blocked.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
85
Attempt Attempt
Corentin Tolisso takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Malick Fofana scores with a right-footed shot.
80
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Malick Fofana scores to make it 0-2, assisted by Corentin Tolisso.
80
Update Update
Sion Oppong comes on for Yann Gboho.
74
Update Update
Tanner Tessmann is on, and Mads Bidstrup is off.
71
Update Update
Sion Oppong is on, and Yann Gboho is off.
71
Update Update
Tanner Tessmann is on, and Mads Bidstrup is off.
71
Substitution Substitution
Jacen Russell-Rowe is substituted for Santiago Hidalgo.
69
Substitution Substitution
Jacen Russell-Rowe is substituted off for Santiago Hidalgo.
69
Update Update
Rafik Messali comes on for Ismail Diallo.
68
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Ilyas Azizi replaces Julian Vignolo.
68
Update Update
Tyler Morton comes on for Noah Nartey.
65
Update Update
Corentin Tolisso comes on for Mathys de Carvalho.
63
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Noah Nartey scores with a right-footed shot.
63
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Noah Nartey scores to make it 0-1, assisted by Pavel Sulc.
60
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Hidalgo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
60
Update Update
Pavel Sulc is coming on for Remi Himbert.
60
Update Update
Tyler Morton comes on for Noah Nartey.
59
Update Update
Corentin Tolisso comes on for Mathys de Carvalho.
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Noah Nartey scores with a right-footed shot.
53
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Noah Nartey scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Pavel Sulc.
53
Attempt Attempt
Kail Boudache takes a left-footed shot but misses.
53
Attempt Attempt
Kail Boudache takes a left-footed shot but misses.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
48
Attempt Attempt
Cristhian Casseres Jr. takes a right-footed shot but misses.
47
Update Update
Offside.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Noah Nartey receives a yellow card.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Noah Nartey receives a yellow card.
43
Update Update
Offside.
31
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Niklas Schmidt receives a yellow card.
31
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Niklas Schmidt receives a yellow card.
29
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Niklas Schmidt receives a yellow card.
27
Attempt Attempt
Thomas Jorgensen takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
26
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Niklas Schmidt receives a yellow card.
26
Attempt Attempt
Christ Tape takes a shot, but it misses the target.
25
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Niklas Schmidt receives a yellow card.
24
Attempt Attempt
Christ Tape takes a shot, but it misses the target.
24
Attempt Attempt
Rasmus Nicolaisen attempts a header but misses the shot.
21
Attempt Attempt
Kail Boudache takes a left-footed shot but misses.
15
Attempt Attempt
Kail Boudache takes a left-footed shot but misses.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
11
Attempt Attempt
Remi Himbert takes a left-footed shot but misses.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
4
Attempt Attempt
Julian Vignolo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
3
Attempt Attempt
Yann Gboho takes a right-footed shot but misses.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Guillaume Paradis.

CONCLUSION

Olympique Lyonnais secured a 0-2 victory over Toulouse despite generating lower expected goals. The visitors capitalized on opportunities while the home side failed to convert their xG advantage into goals. Possession remained balanced throughout and the absence of red cards allowed both teams to maintain full squads. The result reflected a clear deviation from xG data yet matched broader market alignment. Efficiency levels showed no notable shifts from prior benchmarks. This outcome highlights how finishing quality can override underlying metrics in determining the final scoreline. Further analysis of individual player contributions would provide additional context on the performance gap.