Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United preview

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium Mon, 11 May - 7:00 PM
Premier League
Tottenham HotspurTOT
Leeds UnitedLEE
KICKOFF : Mon, 11 May - 7:00 PM
Round 36 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Tottenham Hotspur host Leeds United at the iconic Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in a Premier League regular season fixture during the 2025/2026 campaign. Both clubs languish in the lower reaches, with Spurs in 17th and Leeds just above in 16th, heightening the stakes for early points. Leeds emerge as the marginally stronger side, holding a power score of 87.27 to Tottenham's 84.58—a 2.7-point edge. Projections align closely with home advantage, assigning Spurs a 51.5% chance, draw 24.7%, and visitors 23.8%. Form metrics sit at zero for each, reflecting scant early-season action and null recent outings. League positions underscore domestic struggles, yet Tottenham's fortress-like venue could shift dynamics. Set piece insights rely on low-confidence proxies without xG data, leaving efficiency and transitions opaque. This battle tests resilience amid sparse stats.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Leeds United carries a 2.7-point power advantage over Tottenham Hotspur into this home fixture.
  • Form: Both squads register a form score of zero absent recent outing details.
  • Squad: Squad specifics remain unavailable for preview analysis.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable for either team.
  • Transition: Transition metrics absent from current datasets.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats employ low-confidence proxies without xG availability.
  • xVariable: xVariable evaluation pending xG data activation.
  • Market: Tottenham Hotspur 52.9% (Δ-0.4%) | Draw 24.7% (Δ+0.1%) | Leeds United 22.4% (Δ+0.3%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Tottenham Hotspur R. De Zerbi
R. De Zerbi
VS
Leeds United D. Farke
D. Farke
0.79
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.33
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Aston Villa Rank: 91 W
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: 79 W
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: 89 D
Sunderland Rank: 81 L
Nottingham Forest Rank: 88 L
Liverpool Rank: 92 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Burnley Rank: 77 W
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 89 D
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: 79 W
Manchester United Rank: 92 W
Brentford Rank: 88 D
Crystal Palace Rank: 86 D
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 2 - 5
5
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Tottenham Hotspur
52.92%
Draw
24.72%
Away Leeds United
22.36%

Movement

Changes since opening
Tottenham Hotspur
-0.41%
Draw
+0.12%
Leeds United
+0.29%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
84.58
87.27
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Tottenham Hotspur
Leeds United
Power Score
84.58
87.27
League Position
17
16
Global Rank
39
23

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Tottenham Hotspur — Opponent-weighted form score
Leeds United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Tottenham Hotspur Leeds United

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
May 11, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Capacity
62850
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jarred Gillett
Steve Meredith
Neil Davies
Thomas Kirk

Lineup

Referee : Jarred Gillett

Starting XI ▼

31
Antonín Kinský
Antonín Kinský Goalkeeper
6.54
4
Kevin Danso
Kevin Danso Defender
6.75
13
Destiny Udogie
Destiny Udogie Defender
6.53
23
Pedro Porro
Pedro Porro Defender
6.97
37
Micky van de Ven
Micky van de Ven Defender
6.76
6
João Palhinha
João Palhinha Midfielder
6.89
22
Conor Gallagher
Conor Gallagher Midfielder
6.77
30
Rodrigo Bentancur
Rodrigo Bentancur Midfielder
6.86
9
Richarlison
Richarlison Attacker
6.95
11
Mathys Tel
Mathys Tel Attacker
6.73
39
Randal Kolo Muani
Randal Kolo Muani Attacker
6.52
Referee : Jarred Gillett

Starting XI ▼

26
Karl Darlow
Karl Darlow Goalkeeper
6.82
6
Joe Rodon
Joe Rodon Defender
6.75
15
Jaka Bijol
Jaka Bijol Defender
6.9
23
Sebastiaan Bornauw
Sebastiaan Bornauw Defender
6.67
2
Jayden Bogle
Jayden Bogle Midfielder
6.6
4
Ethan Ampadu
Ethan Ampadu Midfielder
6.98
18
Anton Stach
Anton Stach Midfielder
7.27
22
Ao Tanaka
Ao Tanaka Midfielder
6.81
24
James Justin
James Justin Midfielder
6.9
7
Daniel James
Daniel James Attacker
6.55
9
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Dominic Calvert-Lewin Attacker
6.91

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Leeds United holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Leeds United a 2.7-point edge. External projection is Tottenham Hotspur 51.5%, draw 24.7%, and Leeds United 23.8%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.