Tondela vs Moreirense preview

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio João Cardoso Mon, 11 May - 7:15 PM
Liga Portugal
TondelaCDT
MoreirenseMFC
KICKOFF : Mon, 11 May - 7:15 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Tondela welcomes Moreirense to Estádio João Cardoso in a Liga Portugal regular season encounter during the 2025/2026 campaign. Hosting side Tondela occupies 17th position in the domestic standings, grappling with challenges at the lower end, while visitors Moreirense sit comfortably in 8th, showcasing greater consistency. Power ratings underscore Moreirense's edge, with a 68.11 score surpassing Tondela's 53.58 by 14.5 points, marking them as the stronger outfit overall. Both teams register identical form scores of zero, reflecting limited recent competitive action or neutral momentum entering this fixture. Home advantage could bolster Tondela's efforts in front of their supporters, yet Moreirense's superior underlying metrics suggest potential dominance. League positions highlight the disparity, as Moreirense aims to climb further while Tondela battles relegation pressures. This matchup pits resilience against quality in a venue known for passionate atmospheres.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Moreirense possesses a 68.11 power score, exceeding Tondela's 53.58 by 14.5 points, confirming their status as the stronger team.
  • Form: Tondela and Moreirense both hold form scores of zero with no recent outings recorded.
  • Squad: League standings place Tondela 17th and Moreirense 8th, reflecting squad depth differences.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics remain unavailable for both teams in this analysis.
  • Transition: Transition play data is not provided for Tondela or Moreirense.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance lacks xG data due to low confidence and proxy usage for both sides.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables are unavailable as the add-on is not enabled.
  • Market: Tondela 51.1% (Δ+0%) | Draw 26.9% (Δ+0%) | Moreirense 22% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Tondela G. Feio
G. Feio
VS
Moreirense V. de Albuquerque Botelho da Costa
V. de Albuquerque Botelho da Costa
0.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.14
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Casa Pia Rank: 62 W
Sporting CP Rank: 88 D
Nacional Rank: 64 L
Porto Rank: 86 L
Gil Vicente Rank: 70 D
Vitória Guimarães Rank: 72 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Estrela Amadora Rank: 59 W
Benfica Rank: 87 L
Estoril Rank: 68 W
Famalicão Rank: 74 D
Sporting Braga Rank: 81 L
Arouca Rank: 65 L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 4 - 5
5
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Tondela
51.09%
Draw
26.91%
Away Moreirense
22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
53.58
68.11
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Tondela
Moreirense
Power Score
53.58
68.11
League Position
17
8
Global Rank
462
252

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Tondela — Opponent-weighted form score
Moreirense — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Tondela Moreirense

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
B. Parise Fontes
31 B. Parise Fontes
T. Silva Manso
48 T. Silva Manso
C. Marques
4 C. Marques
J. Antunes da Silva
44 J. Antunes da Silva
R. Fernandes Conceição
27 R. Fernandes Conceição
C. Alves Santana
97 C. Alves Santana
J. Rodríguez López
32 J. Rodríguez López
P. Pereira dos Santos
7 P. Pereira dos Santos
H. Sequeira
79 H. Sequeira
M. Aiko
90 M. Aiko
M. Mesquita Lopes
16 M. Mesquita Lopes

General Information

Date & Time
May 11, 2026, 07:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estádio João Cardoso
Capacity
30127
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ricardo Baixinho
Ricardo Jorge Gomes Carreira
Hugo Alexandre França Luís Coimbra
Sérgio José dos Santos Guelho

Expected Lineup

Referee : Ricardo Baixinho

Starting XI ▼

31
Bernardo
Bernardo Goalkeeper
6.95
16
Rony Lopes
Rony Lopes Centre Forward
6.97
7
Maranhão
Maranhão Right Wing
6.91
27
Rodrigo Conceição
Rodrigo Conceição Left Back
6.59
44
João Silva
João Silva Left Back
6.73
48
Tiago Manso
Tiago Manso Right Back
6.66
90
Makan Aïko
Makan Aïko Left Wing
6.76
32
Juanse
Juanse Defensive Midfield
6.69
79
Hugo Félix
Hugo Félix Attacking Midfield
6.79
97
Cícero
Cícero Defensive Midfield
6.74
4
Christian Marques
Christian Marques Right Back
6.68
Referee : Ricardo Baixinho

Starting XI ▼

22
Caio Gobbo Secco
Caio Gobbo Secco Goalkeeper
6.83
11
Alan de Souza Guimarães
Alan de Souza Guimarães Centre Forward
7.02
10
Francisco Miguel Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
Francisco Miguel Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso Right Wing
6.66
25
Afonso Assis Cunha Almeida
Afonso Assis Cunha Almeida Defensive Midfield
6.59
78
Landerson
Landerson Left Wing
6.46
2
Travassos
Travassos Left Back
6.89
70
Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva
Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva Right Back
6.39
99
Yan Lincon Farias de Sousa
Yan Lincon Farias de Sousa Defensive Midfield
6.52
8
Mateja Stjepanović
Mateja Stjepanović Attacking Midfield
6.64
26
Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga
Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga Right Back
6.83
66
Gilberto Dambi Batista
Gilberto Dambi Batista Left Back
6.68

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Moreirense holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Moreirense a 14.5-point edge. External projection is Tondela 49.7%, draw 27%, and Moreirense 23.3%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.