Tobol vs Partizan preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Astana Arena
Europa Conference League
TobolTOB
1 2
PartizanPAR
Full Time
3rd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 1 - 5
Goal
|
Goal
Chaka Traorè - 90+2'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Tobol 1–2 Partizan. The result saw Partizan take the points. Partizan showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 55%–45%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Minimal deviation of 5.2 percent occurred with Partizan as the affected side.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match team profiles throughout the contest.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable so alignment could not be confirmed.
  • Market alignment: The final outcome proved consistent with pre-match indicators for the tie.
  • xG expectations: No xG figures were recorded leaving expectations without numerical backing.
  • Event impact: Partizan overturned the halftime deficit to win 2-1 and advance on aggregate.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards left match dynamics free from disciplinary distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Chiffi
D. Chiffi
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
G. Baccini
G. Baccini
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
P. Dei Giudici
P. Dei Giudici
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Perenzoni
D. Perenzoni
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Tobol M. Romashchenko
M. Romashchenko
VS
Partizan S. Ilić
S. Ilić
0.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Partizan Rank: L
Panevėžys Rank: D
Panevėžys Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Tobol Rank: W
UNA Strassen Rank: W
UNA Strassen Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Tobol
0.63%
Draw
4.56%
Away Partizan
94.81%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
18.89
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Tobol
Partizan
Power Score
18.89
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Tobol — Opponent-weighted form score
Partizan — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Tobol Partizan

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Tobol

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Partizan

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Tobol ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Partizan
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
4.09
3.56
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
3.56
4.09
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Tobol +0.04 Efficiency Index
vs
Partizan -0.04 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Tobol
Partizan
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Tobol ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Partizan
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Tobol Partizan
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Tobol Partizan
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Tobol
Partizan
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Tobol
vs
Partizan
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Tobol Partizan
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Tobol 0.00
Partizan 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Tobol Partizan
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Tobol 0.06
Partizan 0.02
Tobol
Partizan
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • TOB had peak pressure around 73'.
  • TOB started the game with stronger pressure.
TOB Pressure PAR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: TOB reached the top pressure at 73' (72.16).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Tobol TOB Home
1 matches
Partizan PAR Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
0
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-14T00:00:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 1 - 5
Stadium
Astana Arena
Capacity
14356
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Daniele Chiffi
Giovanni Baccini
Pietro Dei Giudici
Daniele Perenzoni

Statistics

Possession
TOB
53%
PAR
47%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
6 Shots 5
45 Dangerous attacks 32
55 Possession 45
11 Corners 10
13 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

9 Goal Kicks 10
3 Substitutions 5
25 Throwins 26

Attacking

81 Attacks 76

Discipline

3 Offsides 2
12 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Daniele Chiffi

Starting XI ▼

1
Sultan Busurmanov
Sultan Busurmanov Goalkeeper
5.88
3
Roman Asrankulov
Roman Asrankulov Defender
6.26
25
Antonio Borsic
Antonio Borsic
Defender63'
6.26
5
Pape-Alioune Ndiaye
Pape-Alioune Ndiaye Defender
6.05
72
Rayan Senhadji
Rayan Senhadji Defender
6.05
8
Askhat Tagybergen
Askhat Tagybergen (C) Midfielder
6.37
14
Amine Talal
Amine Talal
Midfielder63'
6.37
10
Islam Chesnokov
Islam Chesnokov Midfielder
6.47
13
Abdoulaye Cissé
Abdoulaye Cissé Midfielder
6.27
21
Nauryzbek Zhagorov
Nauryzbek Zhagorov Midfielder
6.23
30
Luis Guerra
Luis Guerra Midfielder
6.38
18
Uros Milovanović
Uros Milovanović Attacker
6.46
17
Aleksandr Zuev
Aleksandr Zuev
Midfielder78'
6.37
99
Vitaliy Lisakovich
Vitaliy Lisakovich Attacker
6.43
Referee : Daniele Chiffi

Starting XI ▼

31
Milos Krunic
Milos Krunic Goalkeeper
6.12
23
Stefan Mitrovic
Stefan Mitrovic Defender
6.45
24
Vukasin Djurdjevic
Vukasin Djurdjevic Defender
6.26
30
Milan Roganovic
Milan Roganovic Defender
6.26
44
Stefan Milic
Stefan Milic Defender
6.25
11
Milan Vukotic
Milan Vukotic (C) Midfielder
6.48
20
Samson Nwulu
Samson Nwulu
Midfielder81'
6.45
19
Demba Seck
Demba Seck Midfielder
6.37
32
Nemanja Trifunovic
Nemanja Trifunovic Midfielder
6.33
39
Ibrahim Zubairu
Ibrahim Zubairu
Midfielder46'
6.61
90
Zoran Alilovic
Zoran Alilovic Midfielder
6.33
8
Aleks Zekovic
Aleks Zekovic
Midfielder46'
6.5
99
Bogdan Kostic
Bogdan Kostic Midfielder
6.37
7
Chaka Traorè
Chaka Traorè
Midfielder70'
6.69
9
Erik Kojzek
Erik Kojzek Attacker
6.46
89
Jeh
Jeh
Attacker46'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Chaka Traorè
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
Event
Abdoulaye Cissé
5th Yellowcard
86'
85'
Event
Samson Nwulu
4th Yellowcard
81'
Event
Samson Nwulu → Milan Vukotic
8th Substitution
Event
Aleksandr Zuev → Uros Milovanović
7th Substitution
78'
70'
Event
Chaka Traorè → Bogdan Kostic
6th Substitution
Event
Antonio Borsic → Roman Asrankulov
4th Substitution
63'
Event
Amine Talal → Askhat Tagybergen 
5th Substitution
63'
63'
Event
Stefan Milic
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
47'
Event
Stefan Mitrovic
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
46'
Event
Jeh → Erik Kojzek
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Aleks Zekovic → Zoran Alilovic
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Ibrahim Zubairu → Nemanja Trifunovic
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
44'
Event
Nemanja Trifunovic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
40'
Event
Zoran Alilovic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Islam Chesnokov
Field Goal / 1st Goal
7'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Nauryzbek Zhagorov.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
81
Substitution Substitution
Samson Nwulu is substituted off for Milan Vukotic.
81
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
78
Update Update
Aleksandr Zuev is on, and Uros Milovanovic is off.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
70
Update Update
Chaka Traore comes on for Bogdan Kostic.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
63
Substitution Substitution
Antonio Borsic is substituted off for Roman Asrankulov.
63
Update Update
Mohamed Amine Talal comes on for Askhat Tagybergen.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Stefan Milic receives a yellow card.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
47
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Stefan Mitrovic scores to make it 1-1, assisted by Milan Vukotic.
47
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
46
Update Update
Aleks Zekovic comes on for Zoran Alilovic.
46
Update Update
Jeferson Marinho dos Santos comes on for Erik Kojzek.
46
Update Update
Zubairu Ibrahim comes on for Nemanja Trifunovic.
44
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
40
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
33
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
24
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
7
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Islam Chesnokov scores to make it 1-0.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Daniele Chiffi.

CONCLUSION

Partizan completed the necessary recovery after trailing at the interval to claim a 2-1 win and eliminate Tobol from the tie. The visitors managed the second half with composure despite lower possession and converted opportunities efficiently. Tobol started brightly with a halftime lead but faded against the stronger opponent once the game opened up. Aggregate control remained firmly with Partizan throughout both legs ensuring safe progression. The clean disciplinary record allowed both teams to focus purely on tactical execution without numerical disadvantages. Overall the result reflected the quality gap between the sides and confirmed Partizan as the deserved qualifier for the next stage.