Tobol vs Panevėžys preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Astana Arena
Europa Conference League
TobolTOB
1 – 1
PanevėžysPAN
Full Time: Finished on Penalties
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 2 - 2
Amine Talal - 45+3'
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Tobol 1–1 Panevėžys. The match ended in a draw. Tobol showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 57%–43%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Tobol recorded a significant deviation of 80.6 percent from pre-match indicators.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with available performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed because expected goals data was unavailable.
  • Market alignment: The final result was not aligned with pre-match market indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were unavailable due to missing expected goals figures.
  • Event impact: The 1-1 draw in leg two preserved the aggregate tie at 3-3.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so disciplinary events created no distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Shurman
D. Shurman
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
O. Myronov
O. Myronov
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
H. Svitlana
H. Svitlana
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
O. Shandor
O. Shandor
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Tobol M. Romashchenko
M. Romashchenko
VS
Panevėžys T. Korkeakunnas
T. Korkeakunnas
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Panevėžys Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Tobol Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Tobol
71.88%
Draw
19.39%
Away Panevėžys
8.74%

Movement

Changes since opening
Tobol
+66.47%
Draw
-70.82%
Panevėžys
+4.36%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
23.33
23.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Tobol
Panevėžys
Power Score
23.33
23.33
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Tobol — Opponent-weighted form score
Panevėžys — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Tobol Panevėžys

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Tobol

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Panevėžys

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Tobol ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Panevėžys
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.12
25.23
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.23
39.12
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Tobol +1.13 Efficiency Index
vs
Panevėžys -1.13 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Tobol
Panevėžys
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Tobol ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Panevėžys
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Tobol Panevėžys
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
5.00 5.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Tobol Panevėžys
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
5.00 5.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Tobol
Panevėžys
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Tobol
vs
Panevėžys
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Tobol Panevėžys
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Tobol 0.21
Panevėžys 0.14
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Tobol Panevėžys
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Tobol 0.05
Panevėžys 0.05
Tobol
Panevėžys
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • TOB had peak pressure around 18'.
  • PAN started the game with stronger pressure.
TOB Pressure PAN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: TOB reached the top pressure at 18' (66.33).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Tobol TOB Home
1 matches
Panevėžys PAN Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
1
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-31T00:00:55+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 2 - 2
Stadium
Astana Arena
Capacity
14356
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Denys Shurman
Oleksiy Myronov
Hrushko Svitlana
Oleksandr Shandor

Statistics

Possession
TOB
55%
PAN
45%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
13 Shots 5
86 Dangerous attacks 57
57 Possession 43
7 Corners 6
25 Free kicks 20
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

93 Ball Safe 105
12 Goal Attempts 7
6 Substitutions 6
38 Throwins 31

Attacking

123 Attacks 100

Discipline

5 Offsides 5
15 Fouls 22

Lineup

Referee : Denys Shurman

Starting XI ▼

44
Danil Ustimenko
Danil Ustimenko Goalkeeper
6.12
5
Pape-Alioune Ndiaye
Pape-Alioune Ndiaye Defender
6.26
25
Antonio Borsic
Antonio Borsic Defender
6.26
3
Roman Asrankulov
Roman Asrankulov
Defender77'
6.5
72
Rayan Senhadji
Rayan Senhadji Defender
6.26
4
Nemanja Cavnic
Nemanja Cavnic
Defender106'
6.5
6
Maksim Myakish
Maksim Myakish Midfielder
6.33
13
Abdoulaye Cissé
Abdoulaye Cissé
Midfielder77'
6.5
8
Askhat Tagybergen
Askhat Tagybergen (C) Midfielder
6.37
10
Islam Chesnokov
Islam Chesnokov Midfielder
6.48
14
Amine Talal
Amine Talal Midfielder
6.57
17
Aleksandr Zuev
Aleksandr Zuev Midfielder
6.37
19
Dauren Zhumat
Dauren Zhumat
Attacker98'
6.5
21
Nauryzbek Zhagorov
Nauryzbek Zhagorov Midfielder
6.37
56
Emin Musaev
Emin Musaev
Midfielder115'
6.5
18
Uros Milovanović
Uros Milovanović Attacker
6.46
30
Luis Guerra
Luis Guerra
Midfielder63'
6.45
Referee : Denys Shurman

Starting XI ▼

1
Vytautas Černiauskas
Vytautas Černiauskas (C) Goalkeeper
6.12
13
Strahinja Kerkez
Strahinja Kerkez Defender
6.26
33
Seydine Keita
Seydine Keita Defender
6.26
66
Dovydas Balsys
Dovydas Balsys Defender
6.26
8
Salomon Kouadio
Salomon Kouadio
Midfielder106'
6.5
6
Matas Ramanauskas
Matas Ramanauskas Midfielder
6.33
27
Kwadwo Asamoah
Kwadwo Asamoah Midfielder
6.33
5
Miano van den Bos
Miano van den Bos
Defender84'
6.49
34
Isaac Asante
Isaac Asante Midfielder
6.61
32
Rokas Rasimavičius
Rokas Rasimavičius
Defender35'
6.26
77
Parfait Bizoza
Parfait Bizoza Midfielder
6.37
95
Joël Bopesu
Joël Bopesu
Defender84'
6.5
79
Valdas Paulauskas
Valdas Paulauskas Midfielder
6.33
17
Oleksandr Kurtsev
Oleksandr Kurtsev
Midfielder65'
6.5
24
Nauris Petkevičius
Nauris Petkevičius Attacker
6.82
16
Marko Bačanin
Marko Bačanin
Attacker65'
6.5
28
Ernestas Burdzilauskas
Ernestas Burdzilauskas Attacker
6.46

Events

2ND-HALF
118'
Event
Miano van den Bos
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Emin Musaev → Nauryzbek Zhagorov
12th Substitution
115'
Event
Nemanja Cavnic → Rayan Senhadji
10th Substitution
106'
106'
Event
Salomon Kouadio → Dovydas Balsys
11th Substitution
Event
Dauren Zhumat → Aleksandr Zuev
9th Substitution
98'
Event
Luis Guerra
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90'
84'
Event
Joël Bopesu → Parfait Bizoza
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Miano van den Bos → Kwadwo Asamoah
8th Substitution
84'
Event
Toni Korkeakunnas
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Roman Asrankulov → Antonio Borsic
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Abdoulaye Cissé → Maksim Myakish
6th Substitution
77'
65'
Event
Marko Bačanin → Nauris Petkevičius
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Oleksandr Kurtsev → Valdas Paulauskas
4th Substitution
Event
Luis Guerra → Uros Milovanović
2nd Substitution
63'
57'
Event
Kwadwo Asamoah
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
52'
Event
Valdas Paulauskas
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Amine Talal
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
45+3'
35'
Event
Rokas Rasimavičius → Isaac Asante
1st Substitution
34'
Event
Matas Ramanauskas
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
33'
Event
Nauris Petkevičius
Field Goal / 1st Goal
Event
Maksim Myakish
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
31'
10'
Event
Marko Bačanin
Goalkeeper save
Event
Roman Asrankulov
Goalkeeper save
9'
8'
Event
Seydine Keita
Goalkeeper save
Event
Pape-Alioune Ndiaye
Goalkeeper save
7'
6'
Event
Oleksandr Kurtsev
Scored
Event
Askhat Tagybergen 
Scored
5'
4'
Event
Matas Ramanauskas
Scored
Event
Nemanja Cavnic
Scored
3'
2'
Event
Rokas Rasimavičius
Off target
Event
Luis Guerra
Scored
1'

Match Commentary

125
Update Update
Penalty miss for Marko Bacanin. The score remains 3-2.
125
Update Update
Penalty miss by Roman Asrankulov. The score remains 3-2.
125
Update Update
Penalty miss by Seydina Keita. The score remains 3-2.
125
Update Update
Penalty miss by Pape Alioune Ndiaye. The score remains 3-2.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Oleksandr Kurtsev scores, making it 3-2.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Askhat Tagybergen scores, bringing the tally to 3-1.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Penalty goal! Matas Ramanauskas scores, making it 2-1.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Nemanja Cavnic scores, making it 2-0.
125
Update Update
Penalty miss by Rokas Rasimavicius. The score remains 1-0.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Luis Guerra scores, making it 1-0.
118
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Miano van den Bos.
115
Update Update
Emin Musaev comes on for Nauryzbek Zhagorov.
108
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
106
Update Update
Salomon Kouadio replaces Dovydas Balsys.
106
Update Update
Nemanja Cavnic is on, and Rayan Senhadji is off.
103
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
98
Update Update
Dauren Zhumat comes on for Aleksandr Zuev.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Luis Guerra.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
84
Update Update
Miano van den Bos is on, and Kwadwo Asamoah is off.
84
Update Update
Miano van den Bos is on, and Kwadwo Asamoah is off.
77
Update Update
Abdoulaye Cisse comes on for Maksim Myakish.
77
Update Update
Roman Asrankulov is on, and Antonio Borsic is off.
65
Update Update
Oleksandr Kurtsev is on, and Valdas Paulauskas is off.
65
Update Update
On Marko Bacanin, off Nauris Petkevicius.
63
Substitution Substitution
Luis Guerra is substituted off for Uros Milovanovic.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kwadwo Asamoah receives a yellow card.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
52
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Valdas Paulauskas receives a yellow card.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mohamed Amine Talal scores, making it 1-1.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
38
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
35
Update Update
Rokas Rasimavicius is on, and Isaac Asante is off.
34
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Matas Ramanauskas.
33
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nauris Petkevicius scores to make it 1-0.
31
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Maksim Myakish.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Denys Shurman.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 result in the second leg produced an aggregate deadlock that requires further resolution. Tobol maintained greater possession yet could not convert territorial advantage into a decisive lead. Both sides scored once before the interval and once after to keep the scores level. Absence of expected goals metrics limited deeper performance evaluation while the recorded deviation highlighted inconsistency with prior indicators. The lack of red cards ensured the contest proceeded without disciplinary interruptions. This draw extends the tie and underscores the competitive balance between the sides across both legs.