Thun vs Lugano preview

Switzerland flag 2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stockhorn Arena Sat, 25 Apr - 6:30 PM
Super League
ThunTHU
LuganoLugano
KICKOFF : Sat, 25 Apr - 6:30 PM
Championship Round

CONTEXT

Thun host Lugano in Super League (Championship Round) at Stockhorn Arena. Domestically, Thun sit 5th in the table while Lugano are 3th. Power ranking favours Thun by 0.3 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Thun holds a 0.3-point power advantage over Lugano at 26.17 to 25.86.
  • Form: Thun's form score of 21.56 exceeds Lugano's 17.17.
  • Squad: Lugano ranks 3rd in the league while Thun sits 5th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition data not provided in available stats.
  • Set pieces: Set piece xG data unavailable with low confidence and proxy metrics used for both teams.
  • xVariable: xG statistics absent, limiting advanced variable analysis.
  • Market: Thun 49.3% (Δ+0%) | Draw 24.7% (Δ+0%) | Lugano 26% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Thun M. Lustrinelli
M. Lustrinelli
VS
Lugano M. Croci-Torti
M. Croci-Torti
2.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.83
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Basel Rank: W
Lugano Rank: L
Zürich Rank: L
Grasshopper Rank: W
Young Boys Rank: W
St. Gallen Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zürich Rank: W
Thun Rank: W
Young Boys Rank: D
St. Gallen Rank: D
Luzern Rank: L
Sion Rank: W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 7 - 8
8
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Thun
49.32%
Draw
24.66%
Away Lugano
26.03%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
26.17
25.86
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Thun
Lugano
Power Score
26.17
25.86
League Position
5
3
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Thun — Opponent-weighted form score
Lugano — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Thun Lugano

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Thun THU Home
23 matches
Lugano Lugano Away
Match Record
8
Wins
8
7
Draws
7
8
Losses
8
Goals
32
Goals Scored
34
34
Goals Conceded
32
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-24T01:01:08+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
N. Steffen
24 N. Steffen
F. Fehr
47 F. Fehr
G. Montolio Lafuente
4 G. Montolio Lafuente
J. Bamert
19 J. Bamert
M. Heule
27 M. Heule
F. Meichtry
77 F. Meichtry
L. Bertone
6 L. Bertone
J. Roth
16 J. Roth
K. Imeri
7 K. Imeri
C. Ibayi
18 C. Ibayi
E. Rastoder
74 E. Rastoder

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland · Championship Round
Stadium
Stockhorn Arena
Capacity
10398
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

24
Niklas Steffen
Niklas Steffen Goalkeeper
6.93
7
Kastriot Imeri
Kastriot Imeri Midfielder
7
77
Franz-Ethan Meichtry
Franz-Ethan Meichtry Midfielder
6.82
18
Christopher Ibayi
Christopher Ibayi Attacker
6.98
74
Elmin Rastoder
Elmin Rastoder Attacker
7.08
6
Leonardo Bertone
Leonardo Bertone Central Midfield
7.05
4
Genís Montolio
Genís Montolio Right Back
7.1
16
Justin Roth
Justin Roth Central Midfield
6.79
19
Jan Bamert
Jan Bamert Left Back
7.01
27
Michael Heule
Michael Heule Left Back
7.06
47
Fabio Fehr
Fabio Fehr Right Back
7.11

Starting XI ▼

1
Amir Saipi
Amir Saipi Goalkeeper
7.29
21
Yanis Cimignani
Yanis Cimignani Midfielder
6.9
27
Daniel Dos Santos
Daniel Dos Santos Midfielder
6.91
9
Georgios Koutsias
Georgios Koutsias Attacker
6.74
11
Renato Steffen
Renato Steffen Attacker
7.05
6
Antonios Papadopoulos
Antonios Papadopoulos Right Back
7.06
8
Anto Grgic
Anto Grgic Central Midfield
7.3
26
Martim Marques
Martim Marques Left Back
6.62
46
Mattia Zanotti
Mattia Zanotti Right Back
7.06
3
Hannes Delcroix
Hannes Delcroix Left Back
6.92
25
Uran Bislimi
Uran Bislimi Central Midfield
7.18

CONCLUSION

Thun's slight power and form edges position them well for success against Lugano in this Championship Round fixture. Home advantage at Stockhorn Arena could tip the scales in a matchup where Lugano's higher league standing meets Thun's superior recent metrics. Without granular xG or set piece insights, the contest hinges on overall strength and execution. Projections reflect Thun's 49.6% likelihood, underscoring a tight but home-favored battle. Lugano must counter with positional quality to overcome the gap. Anticipate tactical discipline from both as stakes rise in the Super League.