Thun vs Dinamo Zagreb preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Stockhorn Arena Tue, 21 Jul - 6:00 PM
Champions League
ThunTHU
1 – 1
Dinamo ZagrebGNK
Full Time Tue, 21 Jul 6:00 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Goal
|
Goal
Miha Zajc - 86'

CONTEXT

In the opening leg of the knockout tie, Thun and Dinamo Zagreb played out a 1-1 draw at the final whistle. Thun secured a halftime lead of 1-0 before the visitors equalized in the second period. Dinamo Zagreb enjoyed greater possession with 57 percent but generated an xG of 1.14, narrowly ahead of Thun's 0.92. No dismissals took place during the encounter. Pre-match assessments identified Dinamo Zagreb as the stronger side, and the draw result matched the xG projections while showing market alignment despite a moderate deviation of 12.1 percent for the away team. Efficiency levels stayed consistent with anticipated patterns across both halves.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Dinamo Zagreb showed a moderate deviation of 12.1 percent from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the expected performance levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with the xG values of 0.92 for Thun and 1.14 for Dinamo Zagreb.
  • Market alignment: The draw result was aligned with market projections.
  • xG expectations: Dinamo Zagreb held a slight xG advantage of 0.22 over Thun.
  • Event impact: The match concluded as a 1-1 draw in the first leg of the tie.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, producing no distortion to the game flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
B. Saryev
B. Saryev
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
S. Vasyutin
S. Vasyutin
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Labashov
D. Labashov
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Gorda
D. Gorda
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Thun G. Privitelli
G. Privitelli
VS
Dinamo Zagreb M. Kovačević
M. Kovačević
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Thun
6.04%
Draw
87.92%
Away Dinamo Zagreb
6.04%

Movement

Changes since opening
Thun
-0.87%
Draw
+2.32%
Dinamo Zagreb
-1.45%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.16
82.49
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Thun
Dinamo Zagreb
Power Score
64.16
82.49
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
394
51

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Thun — Opponent-weighted form score
Dinamo Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Thun Dinamo Zagreb

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Thun

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dinamo Zagreb

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Thun ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo Zagreb
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.21
39.74
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
39.74
42.21
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Thun +0.21 Efficiency Index
vs
Dinamo Zagreb -0.21 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Thun
Dinamo Zagreb
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Thun
vs
Dinamo Zagreb
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Thun Dinamo Zagreb
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
54%
23%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.49 vs -0.27
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Thun Dinamo Zagreb
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
23%
54%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.27 vs -0.49
Thun
Dinamo Zagreb
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Thun
vs
Dinamo Zagreb
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Thun Dinamo Zagreb
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Thun 0.37
Dinamo Zagreb 0.38
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Thun Dinamo Zagreb
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Thun 0.02
Dinamo Zagreb 0.02
Thun
Dinamo Zagreb
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • THU had peak pressure around 37'.
  • GNK started the game with stronger pressure.
THU Pressure GNK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: THU reached the top pressure at 37' (89.02).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 21, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Stockhorn Arena
Capacity
10398
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Bulat Saryev
Sergey Vasyutin
Denis Labashov
Danil Gorda

Statistics

Possession
THU
43%
GNK
57%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 9
43 Dangerous attacks 53
43 Possession 57
9 Corners 5
13 Free kicks 19
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

9 Goal Kicks 7
5 Substitutions 3
24 Throwins 26
1 Assists 1
9 Dribble Attempts 19
3 Successful Dribbles 7
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 37

Attacking

73 Attacks 114
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

52 Long Passes 72
305 Passes 411
222 Successful Passes 331
73 Successful Passes Percentage 81
10 Key Passes 18
21 Successful Long Passes 37
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51

Defensive

3 Saves 2
24 Tackles 20
15 Interceptions 7
58 Duels Won 68

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 21
4 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

3 Offsides 3
19 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Bulat Saryev

Starting XI ▼

1
Niklas Steffen
Niklas Steffen Goalkeeper
6.97
19
Jan Bamert
Jan Bamert Defender
6.62
23
Marco Bürki
Marco Bürki (C) Defender
6.2
27
Michael Heule
Michael Heule Defender
7.5
37
Lucien Dähler
Lucien Dähler
Defender90'
47
Fabio Fehr
Fabio Fehr Defender
8.94
16
Justin Roth
Justin Roth Midfielder
6.9
30
Nico Maier
Nico Maier Midfielder
6.99
13
Nassim Zoukit
Nassim Zoukit
Midfielder56'
6.64
70
Nils Reichmuth
Nils Reichmuth Midfielder
6.41
5
Nicolas Bürgy
Nicolas Bürgy
Defender79'
6.24
78
Valmir Matoshi
Valmir Matoshi Midfielder
6.99
9
Furkan Dursun
Furkan Dursun Attacker
5.93
33
Marc Gutbub
Marc Gutbub
Attacker56'
6.44
96
Brighton Labeau
Brighton Labeau Attacker
7.4
18
Christopher Ibayi
Christopher Ibayi
Attacker79'
6.5
Referee : Bulat Saryev

Starting XI ▼

44
Ivan Filipovic
Ivan Filipovic Goalkeeper
6.64
3
Bruno Goda
Bruno Goda Defender
6.97
25
Moris Valincic
Moris Valincic Defender
6.87
26
Scott McKenna
Scott McKenna Defender
7.65
36
Sergi Domínguez
Sergi Domínguez Defender
7.63
8
Miha Zajc
Miha Zajc Midfielder
8.34
10
Gabriel Vidovic
Gabriel Vidovic Midfielder
6.89
80
Lukas Kacavenda
Lukas Kacavenda
Midfielder80'
6.53
21
Mateo Lisica
Mateo Lisica Midfielder
6.6
11
Arbër Hoxha
Arbër Hoxha
Attacker65'
6.21
27
Josip Misic
Josip Misic (C) Midfielder
7.32
99
Mislav Orsic
Mislav Orsic Midfielder
7.03
30
Fran Topic
Fran Topic
Attacker80'
6.98
9
Dion Beljo
Dion Beljo Attacker
6.83

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Fabio Fehr
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Lucien Dähler → Michael Heule
8th Substitution
90'
86'
Event
Miha Zajc
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
80'
Event
Lukas Kacavenda → Gabriel Vidovic
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Fran Topic → Mislav Orsic
7th Substitution
Event
Nicolas Bürgy → Nils Reichmuth
4th Substitution
79'
Event
Christopher Ibayi → Brighton Labeau
5th Substitution
79'
Event
Justin Roth
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
70'
Event
Marco Bürki 
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
66'
65'
Event
Arbër Hoxha → Mateo Lisica
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Mateo Lisica
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Marc Gutbub → Furkan Dursun
1st Substitution
56'
Event
Nassim Zoukit → Nico Maier
2nd Substitution
56'
1ST-HALF
Event
Brighton Labeau
Header / 1st Goal
20'
2'
Event
Miha Zajc
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Fran Topic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Fabio Fehr receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Lucien Dahler comes on for Michael Heule.
86
Update Update
On comes Lucien Dahler, off goes Michael Heule.
86
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Miha Zajc scores, bringing the score to 1-1.
84
Attempt Attempt
Josip Misic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
82
Attempt Attempt
Michael Heule takes a left-footed shot but misses.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
80
Update Update
Lukas Kacavenda comes on for Gabriel Vidovic.
80
Update Update
On Fran Topic, off Mislav Orsic.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Christopher Ibayi comes on for Brighton Labeau.
79
Update Update
Nicolas Burgy is on, and Nils Reichmuth is off.
76
Update Update
Offside.
74
Update Update
Offside.
73
Update Update
Offside.
70
Update Update
Offside.
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Justin Roth.
67
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marco Burki receives a yellow card.
65
Attempt Attempt
Miha Zajc takes a right-footed shot but misses.
65
Attempt Attempt
Mateo Lisica takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Justin Roth.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marco Burki receives a yellow card.
65
Update Update
Arber Hoxha is on, and Mateo Lisica is off.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Marco Burki.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Marco Burki.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Mateo Lisica.
61
Attempt Attempt
Nassim Zoukit's right-footed shot is blocked.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
57
Attempt Attempt
Mislav Orsic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
56
Substitution Substitution
Marc Gutbub is substituted for Furkan Dursun.
56
Substitution Substitution
Marc Gutbub is substituted for Furkan Dursun.
55
Update Update
Nassim Zoukit is on, and Nico Maier is off.
54
Attempt Attempt
Scott McKenna takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
52
Attempt Attempt
Josip Misic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
47
Update Update
Offside.
45
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Vidovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
43
Attempt Attempt
Miha Zajc takes a right-footed shot but misses.
43
Attempt Attempt
Furkan Dursun takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
42
Attempt Attempt
Scott McKenna attempts a header but misses the shot.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
35
Attempt Attempt
Brighton Labeau takes a shot, but it is blocked.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
34
Update Update
Brighton Labeau's header is blocked.
32
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
32
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
29
Attempt Attempt
Furkan Dursun attempts a header but misses the shot.
28
Attempt Attempt
Moris Valincic takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
25
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
22
Attempt Attempt
Dion Drena Beljo takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
20
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Brighton Labeau Head Shot Goal
20
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Brighton Labeau scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Fabio Fehr.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
19
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Brighton takes the lead with Labeau scoring to make it 1-0.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
17
Attempt Attempt
Mateo Lisica takes a right-footed shot but misses.
15
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Vidovic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
15
Update Update
Offside.
11
Update Update
Offside.
10
Update Update
Offside.
2
Attempt Attempt
Mateo Lisica takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
2
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Miha Zajc receives a yellow card.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Bulat Sariyev.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 result in leg one leaves the tie finely balanced ahead of the return fixture. Thun's early goal provided them with a platform, but Dinamo Zagreb's response ensured parity on the scoreboard. With xG figures close and possession favoring the visitors, the performance metrics suggest both teams have room to adjust tactics for the second leg. The absence of any red cards maintained a full complement of players for both sides, avoiding any numerical imbalances. Overall consistency between expected goals and the actual outcome indicates a fair reflection of the match dynamics. Teams will likely focus on set-piece efficiency and midfield control when they meet again.