Ararat-Armenia vs Celje preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium Tue, 4 Aug - 4:00 PM
Champions League
Ararat-ArmeniaARAR2
2 1
CeljeCEL
Full Time Tue, 4 Aug 4:00 PM
3rd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Goal
|
Goal
Svit Seslar - 22' (P)

CONTEXT

In the opening leg of their two-legged encounter Ararat-Armenia defeated Celje 2-1 at home. The sides were level at 1-1 after the first half with each team finding the net once. Despite Celje controlling 62 percent of possession Ararat-Armenia created enough moments to claim the winner after the interval. Celje entered as the stronger side yet the hosts produced a result that stood out from pre-match projections. No red cards were shown and the contest remained eleven versus eleven throughout. The narrow victory gives Ararat-Armenia a slight advantage heading into the return fixture while Celje must respond away from home. The match highlighted how possession dominance does not always translate into goals.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Ararat-Armenia 2-1 Celje. Ararat-Armenia showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the overall performance metrics observed.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable to determine alignment with the match outcome.
  • Market alignment: The result was not aligned with market expectations given the stronger team designation.
  • xG expectations: No xG data was provided to set expectations for the teams' performances.
  • Event impact: The match being the first leg of two influenced the strategic approach of both sides.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued, resulting in no distortion to the game's flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
I. Kružliak
I. Kružliak
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
B. Hancko
B. Hancko
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Pozor
J. Pozor
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
P. Kralovic
P. Kralovic
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Ararat-Armenia M. da Silva Cruz
M. da Silva Cruz
VS
Celje V. de Carvalho Campelos
V. de Carvalho Campelos
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Shamrock Rovers Rank: L
Shamrock Rovers Rank: W
Riga Rank: L
Riga Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Egnatia Rrogozhinë Rank: 51 D
Egnatia Rrogozhinë Rank: 49 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Ararat-Armenia
31.19%
Draw
28.98%
Away Celje
39.83%

Movement

Changes since opening
Ararat-Armenia
-63.62%
Draw
+24.42%
Celje
+39.2%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
30
35.92
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Ararat-Armenia
Celje
Power Score
30
35.92
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Ararat-Armenia — Opponent-weighted form score
Celje — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ararat-Armenia Celje

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Ararat-Armenia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Celje

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Ararat-Armenia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Celje
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.55
32.42
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.42
28.55
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Ararat-Armenia -0.33 Efficiency Index
vs
Celje +0.33 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Ararat-Armenia
Celje
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Ararat-Armenia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Celje
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Ararat-Armenia Celje
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Ararat-Armenia Celje
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Ararat-Armenia
Celje
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Ararat-Armenia
vs
Celje
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Ararat-Armenia Celje
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Ararat-Armenia 0.14
Celje 0.15
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Ararat-Armenia Celje
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Ararat-Armenia 0.01
Celje 0.04
Ararat-Armenia
Celje
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CEL had peak pressure around 21'.
  • CEL started the game with stronger pressure.
ARAR2 Pressure CEL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CEL reached the top pressure at 21' (56.30).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ararat-Armenia ARAR2 Home
1 matches
Celje CEL Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
1
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
1
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-05T00:00:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 04, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium
Capacity
14403
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ivan Kružliak
Branislav Hancko
Ján Pozor
Peter Kralovic

Statistics

Possession
ARAR2
39%
CEL
61%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
6 Shots 10
57 Dangerous attacks 102
38 Possession 62
3 Corners 4
13 Free kicks 13
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

0 Penalties 1
5 Substitutions 4
13 Throwins 19

Attacking

75 Attacks 126

Defensive

4 Saves 0

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
11 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Ivan Kružliak

Starting XI ▼

98
João Bravim
João Bravim Goalkeeper
6.12
2
Hugo Oliveira
Hugo Oliveira Defender
6.26
25
Alioune Ndour
Alioune Ndour
Attacker90'
3
Junior Julio
Junior Julio Defender
6.26
16
Edgar Grigoryan
Edgar Grigoryan Defender
6.37
43
Bruno Wilson
Bruno Wilson Defender
6.26
47
Alexandros Malis
Alexandros Malis Defender
6.26
11
Zidane Banjaqui
Zidane Banjaqui Midfielder
6.37
6
Michel Ayvazyan
Michel Ayvazyan
Midfielder83'
6.5
17
Maxence Carlier
Maxence Carlier Midfielder
6.37
20
Alwyn Tera
Alwyn Tera
Midfielder59'
6.5
19
Karen Muradyan
Karen Muradyan (C) Midfielder
6.37
77
Artur Serobyan
Artur Serobyan Midfielder
6.57
95
Carlos França
Carlos França
Midfielder59'
6.69
91
Sandro Lima
Sandro Lima Attacker
6.46
90
Paul Ayongo
Paul Ayongo
Attacker90'
Referee : Ivan Kružliak

Starting XI ▼

1
Zan-Luk Leban
Zan-Luk Leban Goalkeeper
5.88
2
Pijus Širvys
Pijus Širvys Defender
6.05
6
Artemijus Tutyškinas
Artemijus Tutyškinas Defender
6.05
4
Darko Hrka
Darko Hrka Midfielder
6.27
8
Mario Kvesic
Mario Kvesic Midfielder
6.23
10
Svit Seslar
Svit Seslar Midfielder
6.41
17
Andrej Kotnik
Andrej Kotnik
Attacker64'
6.46
11
Milot Avdyli
Milot Avdyli Midfielder
6.27
13
Papa Daniel
Papa Daniel Midfielder
6.23
99
Matej Poplatnik
Matej Poplatnik
Attacker90+5'
19
Mark Zabukovnik
Mark Zabukovnik (C) Midfielder
6.27
25
Veton Tusha
Veton Tusha Midfielder
6.37
91
Yaya Dukuly
Yaya Dukuly
Midfielder46'
6.37
47
Armandas Kučys
Armandas Kučys Attacker
6.46
94
Rudi Pozeg Vancas
Rudi Pozeg Vancas
Midfielder64'
6.37

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Matej Poplatnik → Papa Daniel
9th Substitution
90+5'
Event
Papa Daniel
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Paul Ayongo → Sandro Lima
7th Substitution
90'
Event
Alioune Ndour → Hugo Oliveira
8th Substitution
90'
Event
Michel Ayvazyan → Zidane Banjaqui
6th Substitution
83'
Event
Carlos França
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
70'
64'
Event
Andrej Kotnik → Svit Seslar
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Rudi Pozeg Vancas → Armandas Kučys
5th Substitution
Event
Carlos França → Artur Serobyan
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Alwyn Tera → Maxence Carlier
3rd Substitution
59'
58'
Event
Mario Kvesic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
46'
Event
Yaya Dukuly → Veton Tusha
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Manuel Tulipa
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
42'
Event
Artur Serobyan
Field Goal / 1st Goal
38'
22'
Event
Svit Seslar
Penalty / 1st Penalty

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Update Update
Matej Poplatnik comes on for Papa Daniel.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Papa Daniel.
90
Update Update
Alioune Ndour comes on for Hugo Oliveira.
90
Substitution Substitution
Paul Ayongo is substituted off for Sandro Cesar Cordovil de Lima.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
64
Update Update
On comes Rudi Pozeg Vancas, off goes Armandas Kucys.
64
Update Update
On Rudi Pozeg Vancas, off Armandas Kucys.
59
Update Update
On comes Alwyn Tera, off goes Maxence Carlier.
59
Update Update
Carlos Franca comes on for Artur Serobyan.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mario Kvesic receives a yellow card.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Substitution Substitution
Yaya Dukuly is substituted off for Veton Tusha.
43
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
38
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Artur Serobyan scores, making it 1-1.
22
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
21
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
20
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Ivan Kruzliak.

CONCLUSION

Ararat-Armenia secured a valuable 2-1 win in the first leg despite trailing in possession and facing the stronger opponent on paper. Their ability to strike twice while limiting Celje to a single goal sets a positive tone for the return match. The even halftime score of 1-1 showed both teams could break each other down yet the hosts proved more clinical after the break. With no dismissals the contest stayed balanced and open until the final whistle. This outcome leaves Celje needing a strong response in the second leg to overturn the deficit and advance. Overall the result underscores how determination can overcome statistical disadvantages in knockout ties.