Dinamo Zagreb vs Kauno Žalgiris preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Stadion Maksimir
Champions League
Dinamo ZagrebGNK
5 0
Kauno ŽalgirisKAU
Full Time
3rd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Miha Zajc - 31'
Mateo Lisica - 51'
Lukas Kacavenda - 90+4'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Dinamo Zagreb hosted Kauno Žalgiris in the first leg of a two-legged tie and secured a 5-0 victory. The home side led 2-0 at halftime. Dinamo controlled 70 percent of possession while Kauno held 30 percent. No red cards were shown to either team. Pre-match indicators had assigned Kauno the stronger team label yet the result favored Dinamo by a wide margin. The 19.4 percent deviation was classified as significant and attributed to Dinamo. Market alignment was recorded as true and efficiency shift was described as in line with. Expected goals figures were unavailable. The match produced a clear structural outcome without disciplinary influence.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Dinamo Zagreb produced a 19.4 percent significant deviation from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with observed performance patterns.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data were unavailable so alignment could not be assessed.
  • Market alignment: The final outcome was aligned with the pre-match market.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals expectations could not be determined from available data.
  • Event impact: Dinamo Zagreb converted a 2-0 halftime lead into a 5-0 final score.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred and therefore no disciplinary distortion was present.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
E. Lambrechts
E. Lambrechts
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
J. De Weirdt
J. De Weirdt
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
K. Monteny
K. Monteny
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
L. D'hondt
L. D'hondt
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Dinamo Zagreb M. Kovačević
M. Kovačević
VS
Kauno Žalgiris Ž. Sopić
Ž. Sopić
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Thun Rank: 66 W
Thun Rank: 64 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
KÍ Rank: W
KÍ Rank: D
Drita Rank: 58 W
Drita Rank: 59 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dinamo Zagreb
80.61%
Draw
13.2%
Away Kauno Žalgiris
6.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Dinamo Zagreb
-15.14%
Draw
+10.38%
Kauno Žalgiris
+4.76%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
35.58
36.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dinamo Zagreb
Kauno Žalgiris
Power Score
35.58
36.67
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dinamo Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score
Kauno Žalgiris — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dinamo Zagreb Kauno Žalgiris

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dinamo Zagreb

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Kauno Žalgiris

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dinamo Zagreb ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kauno Žalgiris
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.36
11.17
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
11.17
25.36
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dinamo Zagreb +0.56 Efficiency Index
vs
Kauno Žalgiris -0.56 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dinamo Zagreb
Kauno Žalgiris
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dinamo Zagreb ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kauno Žalgiris
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dinamo Zagreb Kauno Žalgiris
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dinamo Zagreb Kauno Žalgiris
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dinamo Zagreb
Kauno Žalgiris
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Dinamo Zagreb
vs
Kauno Žalgiris
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Dinamo Zagreb Kauno Žalgiris
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Dinamo Zagreb 0.10
Kauno Žalgiris 0.07
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Dinamo Zagreb Kauno Žalgiris
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Dinamo Zagreb 0.00
Kauno Žalgiris 0.04
Dinamo Zagreb
Kauno Žalgiris
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GNK had peak pressure around 46'.
  • GNK started the game with stronger pressure.
GNK Pressure KAU Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GNK reached the top pressure at 46' (63.45).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Stadion Maksimir
Capacity
24851
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Erik Lambrechts
Jo De Weirdt
Kevin Monteny
Lothar D'hondt

Statistics

Possession
GNK
71%
KAU
29%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 0
9 Shots 3
115 Dangerous attacks 27
70 Possession 30
10 Corners 0
13 Free kicks 16
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
24 Throwins 14

Attacking

137 Attacks 61

Defensive

0 Saves 2

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
15 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Erik Lambrechts

Starting XI ▼

44
Ivan Filipovic
Ivan Filipovic Goalkeeper
6.5
22
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf Defender
6.61
25
Moris Valincic
Moris Valincic Defender
6.5
26
Scott McKenna
Scott McKenna Defender
6.69
36
Sergi Domínguez
Sergi Domínguez Defender
6.5
7
Luka Stojkovic
Luka Stojkovic Midfielder
7.06
10
Gabriel Vidovic
Gabriel Vidovic
Midfielder86'
8
Miha Zajc
Miha Zajc Midfielder
6.69
80
Lukas Kacavenda
Lukas Kacavenda
Midfielder71'
6.69
21
Mateo Lisica
Mateo Lisica Midfielder
6.69
30
Fran Topic
Fran Topic
Attacker71'
6.5
27
Josip Misic
Josip Misic (C) Midfielder
6.99
9
Dion Beljo
Dion Beljo Attacker
6.59
14
Smail Prevljak
Smail Prevljak
Attacker86'
11
Arbër Hoxha
Arbër Hoxha Attacker
6.5
99
Mislav Orsic
Mislav Orsic
Midfielder61'
6.5
Referee : Erik Lambrechts

Starting XI ▼

55
Tomas Švedkauskas
Tomas Švedkauskas (C) Goalkeeper
5.11
3
Anton Tolordava
Anton Tolordava Defender
5.51
33
Marko Konatar
Marko Konatar Defender
6.05
37
Nosa Iyobosa Edokpolor
Nosa Iyobosa Edokpolor
Defender46'
5.88
45
Joris Moutachy
Joris Moutachy Defender
5.51
77
Rokas Lekiatas
Rokas Lekiatas Defender
5.51
9
Leon Krekovic
Leon Krekovic Midfielder
6.27
8
Yukiyoshi Karashima
Yukiyoshi Karashima
Midfielder46'
6.18
14
Vykintas Slivka
Vykintas Slivka Midfielder
5.99
32
Franco Baldassarra
Franco Baldassarra Midfielder
5.99
70
Fabien Ourega
Fabien Ourega Midfielder
6.18
17
Ivan Fiolic
Ivan Fiolic
Midfielder57'
6.27
7
Amine Benchaib
Amine Benchaib Attacker
6.35
27
Gabriel Debeljuh
Gabriel Debeljuh
Attacker84'
6.46
19
Renan Oliveira
Renan Oliveira Attacker
6.38
20
Anthony Kalik
Anthony Kalik
Midfielder65'
6.23

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Lukas Kacavenda
Field Goal / 5th Goal
90+4'
Event
Smail Prevljak → Dion Beljo
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Gabriel Vidovic → Luka Stojkovic
10th Substitution
86'
85'
Event
Anthony Kalik
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
84'
Event
Gabriel Debeljuh → Amine Benchaib
8th Substitution
Event
Luka Stojkovic
Field Goal / 4th Goal
76'
Event
Lukas Kacavenda → Miha Zajc
6th Substitution
71'
Event
Fran Topic → Mateo Lisica
7th Substitution
71'
65'
Event
Anthony Kalik → Renan Oliveira
5th Substitution
Event
Mislav Orsic → Arbër Hoxha
4th Substitution
61'
57'
Event
Ivan Fiolic → Fabien Ourega
3rd Substitution
Event
Mateo Lisica
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
51'
46'
Event
Nosa Iyobosa Edokpolor → Marko Konatar
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Yukiyoshi Karashima → Leon Krekovic
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Scott McKenna
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
33'
Event
Miha Zajc
Field Goal / 1st Goal
31'

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 5-0.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
86
Update Update
Smail Prevljak comes on for Dion Drena Beljo.
86
Update Update
Gabriel Vidovic comes on for Luka Stojkovic.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Anthony Kalik receives a yellow card.
84
Update Update
Gabriel Debeljuh is coming on for Amine Benchaib.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Luka Stojkovic scores, making it 4-0.
71
Update Update
On Fran Topic, off Mateo Lisica.
71
Update Update
Lukas Kacavenda comes on for Miha Zajc.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Anthony Kalik comes on for Renan Abner do Carmo de Oliveira.
61
Update Update
Mislav Orsic comes on for Arber Hoxha.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
51
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mateo Lisica scores to make it 3-0, assisted by Josip Misic.
49
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mateo Lisica scores, making it 3-0.
46
Update Update
Nosa Iyobosa Edokpolor is on, and Marko Konatar is off.
46
Update Update
Yukiyoshi Karashima comes on for Leon Krekovic.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
33
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
33
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Scott McKenna scores to make it 2-0, assisted by Matteo Perez Vinlof.
32
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Miha Zajc scores to make it 1-0.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Erik Lambrechts.

CONCLUSION

The 5-0 result reflected Dinamo Zagreb's dominance in possession and finishing against Kauno Žalgiris. Halftime lead of 2-0 was extended without interruption in the second period. Absence of expected goals metrics limited deeper statistical comparison yet the scoreline remained consistent with recorded possession split. Market alignment held true while the significant deviation was credited to the home side. Efficiency stayed in line with the observed pattern and no red card events altered the flow. The first leg therefore leaves Dinamo with a substantial aggregate advantage entering the return fixture. Further analysis would benefit from complete expected goals figures to confirm underlying performance levels.