FC Midtjylland vs Rijeka preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
MCH Arena
Europa Conference League
FC MidtjyllandFCM
2 0
RijekaRIJ
Full Time
Play-offs Leg 1 of 2
Gue-sung Cho - 20'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

FC Midtjylland defeated Rijeka 2-0 in the first leg of their tie. The home side led 1-0 at halftime after establishing control through sustained possession at 60 percent. They created an xG total of 1.35 while limiting the visitors to 0.39. The stronger team maintained structural advantages throughout and converted opportunities without conceding. No red cards occurred and the second half saw continued dominance that produced the final margin. The result followed the expected pattern for the higher xG side and aligned with pre-match indicators of team strength. Possession and chance creation favored the winners consistently across both halves.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: FC Midtjylland recorded a significant structural deviation of 39.4 percent as the stronger side.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with the performance levels of both teams.
  • xG alignment: Outcome remained consistent with xG as the home side won 2-0.
  • Market alignment: Result stayed aligned with pre-match indicators for the stronger team.
  • xG expectations: FC Midtjylland posted 1.35 xG against Rijeka's 0.39 xG.
  • Event impact: The halftime goal at 1-0 shaped the controlled second half progression.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion to overall match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
B. Berke
B. Berke
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.32
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
V. Toth
V. Toth
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
B. Szert
B. Szert
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
B. Csonka
B. Csonka
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
FC Midtjylland M. Tullberg
M. Tullberg
VS
Rijeka M. Kek
M. Kek
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bohemians Rank: W
Bohemians Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ilves Rank: D
Ilves Rank: W
Derry City Rank: W
Derry City Rank: W
Strasbourg Rank: 80 D
Strasbourg Rank: 80 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC Midtjylland
60.56%
Draw
23.17%
Away Rijeka
16.27%

Movement

Changes since opening
FC Midtjylland
-36.76%
Draw
+21.26%
Rijeka
+15.5%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
79.01
71.83
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Midtjylland
Rijeka
Power Score
79.01
71.83
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
84
206

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC Midtjylland — Opponent-weighted form score
Rijeka — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC Midtjylland Rijeka

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FC Midtjylland

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rijeka

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FC Midtjylland ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rijeka
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.67
27.13
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.13
35.67
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FC Midtjylland +0.66 Efficiency Index
vs
Rijeka -0.66 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FC Midtjylland
Rijeka
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FC Midtjylland
vs
Rijeka
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FC Midtjylland Rijeka
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
45%
19%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.61 vs -0.08
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FC Midtjylland Rijeka
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
19%
45%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.08 vs -0.61
FC Midtjylland
Rijeka
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
FC Midtjylland
vs
Rijeka
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
FC Midtjylland Rijeka
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
FC Midtjylland 0.26
Rijeka 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
FC Midtjylland Rijeka
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
FC Midtjylland 0.00
Rijeka 0.03
FC Midtjylland
Rijeka
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FCM had peak pressure around 51'.
  • FCM started the game with stronger pressure.
FCM Pressure RIJ Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FCM reached the top pressure at 51' (100.00).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · Play-offs · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
MCH Arena
Capacity
12152
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Balazs Berke
Vencel Toth
Balázs Szert
Bence Csonka

Statistics

Possession
FCM
60%
RIJ
40%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
5 Big Chances Created 0
5 Shots 3
68 Dangerous attacks 37
60 Possession 40
5 Corners 4
19 Free kicks 17
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

100 Ball Safe 99
9 Goal Kicks 11
10 Goal Attempts 4
4 Substitutions 5
19 Throwins 16
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Assists 0
21 Dribble Attempts 9
6 Successful Dribbles 5
29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56

Attacking

139 Attacks 81
3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

87 Long Passes 65
457 Passes 298
371 Successful Passes 207
81 Successful Passes Percentage 69
14 Key Passes 8
51 Successful Long Passes 19
59 Successful Long Passes Percentage 29

Defensive

1 Saves 8
17 Tackles 18
6 Interceptions 7

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 13
11 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
17 Fouls 19

Lineup

Referee : Balazs Berke

Starting XI ▼

1
Elías Ólafsson
Elías Ólafsson Goalkeeper
6.86
3
Magnus Jensen
Magnus Jensen Defender
8.09
8
Philip Billing
Philip Billing Defender
7.75
22
Mads Bech Sørensen
Mads Bech Sørensen Defender
7.62
5
Rasmus Nissen Kristensen
Rasmus Nissen Kristensen (C) Midfielder
7.27
11
Darío Osorio
Darío Osorio Midfielder
7.03
13
Adam Gabriel
Adam Gabriel
Defender89'
19
Pedro Bravo
Pedro Bravo Midfielder
6.72
20
Valdemar Byskov
Valdemar Byskov Midfielder
6.81
27
Sofus Johannesen
Sofus Johannesen
Midfielder46'
7.6
21
Denil Castillo
Denil Castillo Midfielder
6.48
29
Kjell Wätjen
Kjell Wätjen
Midfielder59'
6.91
7
Franculino
Franculino Attacker
7.09
18
Stanley Iheanacho
Stanley Iheanacho
Attacker46'
6.68
10
Gue-sung Cho
Gue-sung Cho Attacker
7.59
90
Friday Etim
Friday Etim
Attacker74'
6.55
Referee : Balazs Berke

Starting XI ▼

99
Aleksa Todorovic
Aleksa Todorovic Goalkeeper
7.67
5
Alfonso Barco
Alfonso Barco Defender
6.47
22
Ante Orec
Ante Orec Defender
7.15
34
Mladen Devetak
Mladen Devetak Defender
6.29
45
Ante Majstorovic
Ante Majstorovic (C) Defender
6.25
4
Niko Jankovic
Niko Jankovic Midfielder
6.3
7
Yusuf Kabadayi
Yusuf Kabadayi
Attacker74'
6.7
6
Branko Pavic
Branko Pavic Midfielder
6.3
8
Ivan Cubelic
Ivan Cubelic Midfielder
6.95
14
Amer Gojak
Amer Gojak
Midfielder74'
6.52
10
Toni Fruk
Toni Fruk Midfielder
6.14
23
Justas Lasickas
Justas Lasickas
Defender87'
26
Tiago Dantas
Tiago Dantas Midfielder
6.67
21
Jakov Puljic
Jakov Puljic
Attacker67'
6.52
18
Daniel Adu-Adjei
Daniel Adu-Adjei Attacker
6.11
77
Ante Matej Juric
Ante Matej Juric
Attacker87'
6.63

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Adam Gabriel → Darío Osorio
10th Substitution
89'
89'
Event
Alfonso Barco
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
87'
Event
Ante Matej Juric → Daniel Adu-Adjei
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Justas Lasickas → Toni Fruk
9th Substitution
Event
Friday Etim → Gue-sung Cho
5th Substitution
74'
74'
Event
Amer Gojak → Ivan Cubelic
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Yusuf Kabadayi → Niko Jankovic
7th Substitution
67'
Event
Jakov Puljic → Tiago Dantas
4th Substitution
Event
Sofus Johannesen
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
60'
Event
Kjell Wätjen → Denil Castillo
3rd Substitution
59'
50'
Event
Toni Fruk
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Sofus Johannesen
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
48'
Event
Stanley Iheanacho → Franculino
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Sofus Johannesen → Valdemar Byskov
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
36'
Event
Ivan Cubelic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Gue-sung Cho
Header / 1st Goal
20'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Magnus Jensen attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Justas Lasickas takes a right-footed shot, but it misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ante Matej Juric takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jakov Puljic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Magnus Jensen's header is saved.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Attempt Attempt
Phillip Billing takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
89
Update Update
Adam Gabriel is on, and Dario Esteban Osorio is off.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card.
87
Update Update
Ante Matej Juric is on, and Toni Fruk is off.
87
Update Update
Justas Lasickas comes on for Daniel Adu Adjei.
86
Attempt Attempt
Friday Ubi Etim takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
86
Attempt Attempt
Kjell Watjen takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
80
Update Update
Offside.
79
Update Update
Offside.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Yusuf Kabadayi comes on for Niko Jankovic.
74
Update Update
Amer Gojak replaces Ivan Cubelic.
74
Update Update
On Friday, Ubi Etim replaced Cho Gue-Sung.
73
Attempt Attempt
Niko Jankovic's right-footed shot is blocked.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
72
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Ivan Cubelic with his left foot is saved.
68
Attempt Attempt
Dario Esteban Osorio takes a left-footed shot but misses.
68
Attempt Attempt
Dario Esteban Osorio takes a left-footed shot but misses.
67
Update Update
Jakov Puljic replaces Tiago Dantas.
66
Update Update
Offside.
65
Attempt Attempt
Stanley Iheanacho takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sofus Johannesen receives a yellow card.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
51
Attempt Attempt
Sofus Johannesen takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Toni Fruk receives a yellow card.
49
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
49
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sofus Johannesen scores to make it 2-0, assisted by Stanley Iheanacho.
48
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Sofus Johannesen takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
48
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sofus Johannesen scores, making it 2-0.
46
Attempt Attempt
Stanley Iheanacho takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Sofus Johannesen is on, and Valdemar Andreasen is off.
46
Update Update
Stanley Iheanacho is on, and Franculino Gluda Dju is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ante Majstorovic attempts a header but misses the shot.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
42
Attempt Attempt
Magnus Jensen takes a header shot, but it misses the target.
42
Attempt Attempt
Franculino Gluda Dju takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
38
Attempt Attempt
Niko Jankovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
36
Attempt Attempt
Rasmus Nissen Kristensen takes a header shot but misses.
36
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Ivan Cubelic.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
31
Update Update
Offside.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
27
Attempt Attempt
Toni Fruk takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
26
Update Update
Offside.
23
Attempt Attempt
Denil Castillo attempts a header but misses the shot.
20
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot from Cho Gue-Sung with a header results in a goal.
20
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Cho Gue-Sung scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Franculino Gluda Dju.
20
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Cho Gue-Sung scores, making it 1-0.
7
Attempt Attempt
Denil Castillo attempts a header but misses the shot.
3
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Balazs Berke.

CONCLUSION

The 2-0 scoreline reflected FC Midtjylland's superior chance creation and defensive organization against a Rijeka side that managed limited opportunities. With 60 percent possession the home team dictated tempo from the opening minutes and carried a 1-0 lead into the interval. The xG differential of 0.96 underscored the gap in quality and execution. No disciplinary events altered the flow and the visitors remained unable to mount sustained pressure. The outcome reinforced the pre-match assessment of team strength while demonstrating consistent efficiency from the winners. Further legs will require Rijeka to improve creation metrics substantially to close the aggregate gap.