Hearts vs SK Rapid preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Tynecastle Park
Europa Conference League
HeartsHEA
2 – 2
SK RapidSCR
Full Time
Play-offs Leg 1 of 2
Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao - 55' (Own Goal)
James Wilson - 62'
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

In a tightly contested encounter, Hearts and SK Rapid played out a 2-2 draw at home. The match began with SK Rapid asserting early dominance, securing a 1-0 lead by halftime. Hearts, identified as the stronger team, struggled to convert their opportunities in the opening period. The second half witnessed a dramatic turnaround as both sides traded goals, ultimately sharing the points. Possession statistics highlighted SK Rapid's control at 61 percent, leaving Hearts with 39 percent. Expected goals were nearly even, with Hearts at 0.97 and SK Rapid at 1.13. This outcome aligns with the xG data, underscoring the competitive nature of the fixture. The absence of any red cards allowed for a full-strength battle throughout the ninety minutes. Fans witnessed an engaging display that promises excitement for the return leg.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Hearts 2-2 SK Rapid. Hearts showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with the overall performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome proved consistent with the expected goals alignment.
  • Market alignment: The result showed no alignment with market projections.
  • xG expectations: Hearts generated 0.97 xG while SK Rapid produced 1.13 xG in the encounter.
  • Event impact: The draw occurred without major disruptive events altering the flow.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards ensured no distortion from disciplinary actions.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Lukjančukas
M. Lukjančukas
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.32
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
M. Mirauskas
M. Mirauskas
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Stepanovas
A. Stepanovas
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
V. Paulauskas
V. Paulauskas
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Hearts W. Vrancken
W. Vrancken
VS
SK Rapid J. Hoff Thorup
J. Hoff Thorup
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Paide Rank: W
Paide Rank: W
FC Santa Coloma Rank: W
FC Santa Coloma Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hearts
39.41%
Draw
26.21%
Away SK Rapid
34.38%

Movement

Changes since opening
Hearts
+33.43%
Draw
-60.91%
SK Rapid
+27.48%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.28
65.22
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hearts
SK Rapid
Power Score
73.28
65.22
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
172
384

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hearts — Opponent-weighted form score
SK Rapid — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hearts SK Rapid

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hearts

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

SK Rapid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hearts ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy SK Rapid
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
48.97
19.02
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.02
48.97
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hearts +2.33 Efficiency Index
vs
SK Rapid -2.33 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hearts
SK Rapid
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hearts
vs
SK Rapid
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hearts SK Rapid
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
26%
21%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.26 vs -0.24
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hearts SK Rapid
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
21%
26%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.24 vs -0.26
Hearts
SK Rapid
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Hearts
vs
SK Rapid
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Hearts SK Rapid
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Hearts 0.40
SK Rapid 0.17
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hearts SK Rapid
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Hearts 0.04
SK Rapid 0.05
Hearts
SK Rapid
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • HEA had peak pressure around 65'.
  • HEA started the game with stronger pressure.
HEA Pressure SCR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: HEA reached the top pressure at 65' (73.84).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · Play-offs · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Tynecastle Park
Capacity
19852
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Manfredas Lukjančukas
Mangirdas Mirauskas
Aleksandras Stepanovas
Vilius Paulauskas

Statistics

Possession
HEA
45%
SCR
55%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 3
8 Shots 2
42 Dangerous attacks 52
39 Possession 61
4 Corners 5
17 Free kicks 8
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

4 Goal Kicks 8
3 Substitutions 4
17 Throwins 18
1 Assists 2
29 Dribble Attempts 9
16 Successful Dribbles 2
55 Successful Dribbles Percentage 22

Attacking

115 Attacks 122
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

63 Long Passes 51
418 Passes 651
346 Successful Passes 563
83 Successful Passes Percentage 86
14 Key Passes 8
36 Successful Long Passes 15
57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 29

Defensive

4 Saves 3
18 Tackles 21
13 Interceptions 10

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 13
4 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
8 Fouls 17

Lineup

Referee : Manfredas Lukjančukas

Starting XI ▼

1
Beau Reus
Beau Reus Goalkeeper
6.57
5
Jamie McCart
Jamie McCart Defender
7.02
6
Oisin McEntee
Oisin McEntee Defender
7.41
17
Stuart Findlay
Stuart Findlay Defender
7.25
23
Jordi Altena
Jordi Altena Defender
6.73
7
Calvin Miller
Calvin Miller Midfielder
6.7
10
Cláudio Braga
Cláudio Braga Midfielder
7
12
Tom Renaud
Tom Renaud Midfielder
6.98
22
Tómas Bent Magnússon
Tómas Bent Magnússon
Midfielder80'
6.5
15
Josh McPake
Josh McPake Midfielder
7.33
74
Rogers Mato
Rogers Mato
Attacker73'
6.28
16
Blair Spittal
Blair Spittal (C) Midfielder
7.72
11
Pierre Landry Kaboré
Pierre Landry Kaboré Attacker
6.54
21
James Wilson
James Wilson
Attacker56'
7.11
Referee : Manfredas Lukjančukas

Starting XI ▼

1
Niklas Hedl
Niklas Hedl Goalkeeper
6.51
6
Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao
Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao Defender
7.07
38
Jannes Horn
Jannes Horn Defender
6.58
55
Nenad Cvetkovic
Nenad Cvetkovic Defender
7.08
77
Bendegúz Bolla
Bendegúz Bolla Defender
6.8
8
Tonni Adamsen
Tonni Adamsen Midfielder
6.75
30
Nicolas Bajlicz
Nicolas Bajlicz
Midfielder77'
6.76
10
Petter Nosa Dahl
Petter Nosa Dahl Midfielder
5.87
15
Nikolaus Wurmbrand
Nikolaus Wurmbrand
Attacker76'
7.01
18
Matthias Seidl
Matthias Seidl (C) Midfielder
7.19
22
Yusuf Demir
Yusuf Demir Midfielder
6.62
7
Marco Tilio
Marco Tilio
Attacker83'
6.43
29
Romeo Amane
Romeo Amane Midfielder
6.75
43
Moulaye Haïdara
Moulaye Haïdara
Attacker90+3'
9
Ercan Kara
Ercan Kara Attacker
6.65

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Nicolas Bajlicz
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Moulaye Haïdara → Romeo Amane
7th Substitution
87'
Event
Romeo Amane
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
83'
Event
Marco Tilio → Yusuf Demir
6th Substitution
Event
Tómas Bent Magnússon → Tom Renaud
5th Substitution
80'
79'
Event
Nikolaus Wurmbrand
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
77'
Event
Nicolas Bajlicz → Tonni Adamsen
4th Substitution
76'
Event
Nikolaus Wurmbrand → Petter Nosa Dahl
3rd Substitution
Event
Rogers Mato → Josh McPake
2nd Substitution
73'
65'
Event
Petter Nosa Dahl
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
James Wilson
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
62'
Event
James Wilson → Pierre Landry Kaboré
1st Substitution
56'
Event
Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
55'
Event
Pierre Landry Kaboré
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
50'
1ST-HALF
30'
Event
Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Nicolas Bajlicz.
90
Update Update
Moulaye Haidara is on, and Amane Romeo is off.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Amane Romeo.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
80
Update Update
On comes Tomas Bent Magnusson, off goes Tom Renaud.
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Nikolaus Wurmbrand scores with a left-footed shot.
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nikolaus Wurmbrand scores to make it 2-2, assisted by Nicolas Bajlicz.
78
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nikolaus Wurmbrand scores, bringing the match to 2-2.
77
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
76
Update Update
Nicolas Bajlicz is on, and Tonni Adamsen is off.
76
Update Update
Nikolaus Wurmbrand is on, and Petter Nosa Dahl is off.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
73
Update Update
On comes Rogers Mato Kassim, off goes Joshua McPake.
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Petter Nosa Dahl.
62
GOAL! GOAL! Important
James Wilson scores with a right-footed shot.
62
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! James Wilson scores to make it 2-1, assisted by Claudio Braga.
61
Attempt Attempt
Oisin McEntee takes a shot with his head but misses.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
60
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! James Wilson scores, making it 2-1.
56
Update Update
James Wilson replaces Pierre Kabore.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! An own goal by Serge Raux Yao levels the score at 1-1.
56
Update Update
James Wilson replaces Pierre Kabore.
55
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! An own goal by Serge Raux Yao levels the score at 1-1.
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
52
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Claudio Braga receives a yellow card.
48
Attempt Attempt
Matthias Seidl takes a left-footed shot but misses.
47
Attempt Attempt
Joshua McPake takes a right-footed shot but misses.
47
Attempt Attempt
Claudio Braga takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Attempt Attempt
Tom Renaud takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
44
Attempt Attempt
Pierre Kabore takes a left-footed shot but misses.
39
Attempt Attempt
Claudio Braga takes a right-footed shot but misses.
37
Attempt Attempt
Joshua McPake takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
34
Attempt Attempt
Stuart Findlay takes a left-footed shot but misses.
31
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Serge Raux Yao scores to make it 0-1, assisted by Matthias Seidl.
30
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ercan Kara scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Matthias Seidl.
30
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
16
Attempt Attempt
Tom Renaud takes a right-footed shot but misses.
16
Attempt Attempt
Tom Renaud takes a right-footed shot but misses.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
13
Attempt Attempt
Bendeguz Bolla attempts a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
12
Attempt Attempt
Oisin McEntee takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
9
Attempt Attempt
Matthias Seidl takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
3
Attempt Attempt
Joshua McPake takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
3
Attempt Attempt
Joshua McPake takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
3
Attempt Attempt
Petter Nosa Dahl's header is saved.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Manfredas Lukjancukas.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Hearts 2-2 SK Rapid. Structural assessment: Hearts exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.