Ararat-Armenia vs Shamrock Rovers preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium Tue, 21 Jul - 4:00 PM
Champions League
Ararat-ArmeniaARAR2
2 0
Shamrock RoversSHA
Full Time Tue, 21 Jul 4:00 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Sandro Lima - 51'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Ararat-Armenia hosted Shamrock Rovers in the first leg of their two-legged tie and emerged victorious with a 2-0 scoreline. The game was level at 0-0 when the teams went into the halftime break. Despite holding only 42 percent of the possession compared to their opponents 58 percent Ararat-Armenia managed to find the net twice in the second half to claim the win. The stronger team according to pre-match assessment delivered on expectations by securing the three points. No red cards were shown to players from either side throughout the contest. The outcome highlighted a notable deviation in performance metrics for the home side amounting to 58.1 percent. This result sets up an interesting second leg for both teams involved in the competition.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Ararat-Armenia showed a significant structural deviation of 58.1 percent from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the overall match performance.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable preventing any alignment evaluation.
  • Market alignment: The final result was aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals metrics were provided to assess expectations.
  • Event impact: The match remained scoreless at halftime before Ararat-Armenia secured a 2-0 victory.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued during the match resulting in no distortion effects.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Dickinson
D. Dickinson
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
D. McGeachie
D. McGeachie
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Bell
J. Bell
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
C. Scott
C. Scott
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Ararat-Armenia M. da Silva Cruz
M. da Silva Cruz
VS
Shamrock Rovers S. Bradley
S. Bradley
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.5
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Riga Rank: L
Riga Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Floriana Rank: W
Floriana Rank: L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Ararat-Armenia
41.9%
Draw
27.66%
Away Shamrock Rovers
30.43%

Movement

Changes since opening
Ararat-Armenia
-55.42%
Draw
+25.75%
Shamrock Rovers
+29.66%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
30
30
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Ararat-Armenia
Shamrock Rovers
Power Score
30
30
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Ararat-Armenia — Opponent-weighted form score
Shamrock Rovers — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ararat-Armenia Shamrock Rovers

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Ararat-Armenia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Shamrock Rovers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Ararat-Armenia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Shamrock Rovers
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
18.57
14.05
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
14.05
18.57
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Ararat-Armenia +0.38 Efficiency Index
vs
Shamrock Rovers -0.38 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Ararat-Armenia
Shamrock Rovers
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Ararat-Armenia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Shamrock Rovers
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Ararat-Armenia Shamrock Rovers
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Ararat-Armenia Shamrock Rovers
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Ararat-Armenia
Shamrock Rovers
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Ararat-Armenia
vs
Shamrock Rovers
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Ararat-Armenia Shamrock Rovers
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Ararat-Armenia 0.05
Shamrock Rovers 0.03
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Ararat-Armenia Shamrock Rovers
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Ararat-Armenia 0.00
Shamrock Rovers 0.03
Ararat-Armenia
Shamrock Rovers
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ARAR2 had peak pressure around 73'.
  • SHA started the game with stronger pressure.
ARAR2 Pressure SHA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ARAR2 reached the top pressure at 73' (56.89).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 21, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium
Capacity
15000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
David Dickinson
David McGeachie
Jonathan Bell
Calum Scott

Statistics

Possession
ARAR2
43%
SHA
57%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
5 Shots 2
76 Dangerous attacks 103
42 Possession 58
4 Corners 7
8 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 4
13 Throwins 25

Attacking

101 Attacks 144

Defensive

1 Saves 0

Discipline

9 Fouls 6

Lineup

Referee : David Dickinson

Starting XI ▼

98
João Bravim
João Bravim Goalkeeper
6.5
2
Hugo Oliveira
Hugo Oliveira Defender
6.5
3
Junior Julio
Junior Julio Defender
6.49
13
Kamo Hovhannisyan
Kamo Hovhannisyan Defender
6.5
5
Luis Felipe
Luis Felipe
Defender75'
6.5
14
Bruno Pereira
Bruno Pereira Defender
6.5
17
Maxence Carlier
Maxence Carlier
Midfielder60'
6.5
43
Bruno Wilson
Bruno Wilson Defender
6.5
7
Zhirayr Shaghoyan
Zhirayr Shaghoyan Midfielder
6.5
95
Carlos França
Carlos França
Midfielder65'
6.61
19
Karen Muradyan
Karen Muradyan (C) Midfielder
6.5
20
Alwyn Tera
Alwyn Tera Midfielder
6.5
11
Zidane Banjaqui
Zidane Banjaqui
Midfielder65'
6.65
77
Artur Serobyan
Artur Serobyan Midfielder
6.5
90
Paul Ayongo
Paul Ayongo
Attacker76'
6.5
91
Sandro Lima
Sandro Lima Attacker
6.86
Referee : David Dickinson

Starting XI ▼

1
Ed McGinty
Ed McGinty Goalkeeper
5.88
4
Roberto Lopes
Roberto Lopes (C) Defender
6.05
5
Lee Grace
Lee Grace Defender
6.25
17
Luke O'Regan
Luke O'Regan
Defender67'
6.26
22
Tunmise Sobowale
Tunmise Sobowale Defender
6.05
27
Cory O'Sullivan
Cory O'Sullivan Defender
6.05
7
Dylan Watts
Dylan Watts Midfielder
6.27
8
Matthew Healy
Matthew Healy Midfielder
6.23
19
Adam Brennan
Adam Brennan Midfielder
6.37
11
Jake Mulraney
Jake Mulraney
Midfielder67'
6.37
29
Jack Byrne
Jack Byrne Midfielder
6.27
28
Naj Razi
Naj Razi
Midfielder90+1'
9
Aaron Greene
Aaron Greene Attacker
6.46
18
Jonathan Afolabi
Jonathan Afolabi
Attacker67'
6.42
10
Graham Burke
Graham Burke Attacker
6.43

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Zidane Banjaqui
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+5'
90+1'
Event
Naj Razi → Jack Byrne
9th Substitution
Event
Junior Julio
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
89'
89'
Event
Jonathan Afolabi
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
81'
Event
Matthew Healy
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Zidane Banjaqui
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
80'
Event
Paul Ayongo → Artur Serobyan
8th Substitution
76'
Event
Luis Felipe → Kamo Hovhannisyan
7th Substitution
75'
67'
Event
Jonathan Afolabi → Aaron Greene
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Jake Mulraney → Adam Brennan
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Luke O'Regan → Lee Grace
6th Substitution
Event
Zidane Banjaqui → Alwyn Tera
2nd Substitution
65'
Event
Carlos França → Zhirayr Shaghoyan
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Maxence Carlier → Bruno Pereira
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Sandro Lima
Field Goal / 1st Goal
51'
1ST-HALF
40'
Event
Lee Grace
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Zidane Banjaqui.
90
Update Update
On comes Naj Razi, and off goes Jack Byrne.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bruno Wilson receives a yellow card.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Jonathan Afolabi.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Matthew Healy receives a yellow card.
80
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-0.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
76
Substitution Substitution
Paul Ayongo is substituted for Artur Serobyan.
75
Substitution Substitution
Luis Felipe Hungria Martins is substituted off for Kamo Hovhannisyan.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
65
Substitution Substitution
Carlos Franca is substituted for Zhirayr Shaghoyan.
65
Update Update
Carlos Franca is coming on for Zhirayr Shaghoyan.
60
Update Update
Maxence Carlier comes on for Bruno Pereira.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
51
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
40
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lee Grace receives a yellow card.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
30
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is David Dickinson.

CONCLUSION

Following their 2-0 triumph in the opening leg Ararat-Armenia will carry a valuable advantage into the return fixture against Shamrock Rovers. The home side demonstrated resilience by overcoming a possession deficit to secure the clean sheet victory. With the aggregate score now favoring them they can approach the second leg with confidence while remaining cautious of their opponents capabilities. The absence of any dismissals ensured the match flowed without major interruptions allowing both teams to showcase their tactical setups. This result aligns well with the designation of Ararat-Armenia as the stronger side prior to kickoff. Fans can anticipate an engaging conclusion to the tie in the upcoming encounter where Shamrock Rovers will seek to overturn the deficit.