FC Twente vs Qarabağ preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
De Grolsch Veste
Europa Conference League
FC TwenteTWE
0 1
QarabağQAR
Full Time
Play-offs Leg 1 of 2
|
Goal
Kady Borges - 52'

CONTEXT

In the opening leg of their two-legged knockout encounter FC Twente hosted Qarabağ and fell to a 0-1 defeat. The home side held 61 percent possession yet produced 1.3 expected goals while the visitors generated 0.46. The scoreline stayed level through a goalless first half before Qarabağ scored the only goal of the contest after the interval. Although designated the stronger side the away team recorded a significant deviation from pre-match projections. No red cards were shown and the outcome proved inconsistent with the expected-goal distribution. The result leaves the aggregate finely balanced ahead of the return fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Qarabağ recorded an 84.8 percent deviation from pre-match indicators in securing the win.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency metrics remained in line with the final result throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: The outcome was inconsistent with xG values as the home side held the higher total.
  • Market alignment: The result did not align with pre-match market indicators.
  • xG expectations: FC Twente posted 1.3 expected goals against Qarabağ's 0.46.
  • Event impact: A single second-half goal proved decisive after a 0-0 halftime score.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued and therefore no distortion occurred.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Xhaja
J. Xhaja
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.32
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
R. Avdo
R. Avdo
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Shazivari
M. Shazivari
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
E. Rusta
E. Rusta
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
FC Twente J. van den Brom
J. van den Brom
VS
Qarabağ Q. Qurbanov
Q. Qurbanov
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.5
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dunajská Streda Rank: 77 D
Dunajská Streda Rank: 78 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 70 W
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 70 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 3 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC Twente
63.6%
Draw
21.24%
Away Qarabağ
15.16%

Movement

Changes since opening
FC Twente
+62.96%
Draw
+16.18%
Qarabağ
-79.14%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
25.77
32.7
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Twente
Qarabağ
Power Score
25.77
32.7
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC Twente — Opponent-weighted form score
Qarabağ — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC Twente Qarabağ

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FC Twente

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Qarabağ

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FC Twente ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Qarabağ
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.98
21.67
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.67
40.98
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FC Twente +1.50 Efficiency Index
vs
Qarabağ -1.50 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FC Twente
Qarabağ
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FC Twente
vs
Qarabağ
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FC Twente Qarabağ
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
2%
14%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.02 vs -0.07
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FC Twente Qarabağ
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
14%
2%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.07 vs -0.02
FC Twente
Qarabağ
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
FC Twente
vs
Qarabağ
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
FC Twente Qarabağ
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
FC Twente 0.26
Qarabağ 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
FC Twente Qarabağ
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
FC Twente 0.03
Qarabağ 0.00
FC Twente
Qarabağ
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • TWE had peak pressure around 75'.
  • TWE started the game with stronger pressure.
TWE Pressure QAR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: TWE reached the top pressure at 75' (77.96).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FC Twente TWE Home
4 matches
Qarabağ QAR Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
3
Draws
3
0
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
4
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-21T00:06:28+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · Play-offs · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
De Grolsch Veste
Capacity
30205
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Juxhin Xhaja
Rejdi Avdo
Mario Shazivari
Emanuela Rusta

Statistics

Possession
TWE
60%
QAR
40%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 3
80 Dangerous attacks 29
61 Possession 39
5 Corners 3
4 Free kicks 13
5 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

61 Ball Safe 87
4 Goal Kicks 11
11 Goal Attempts 7
5 Substitutions 1
30 Throwins 26
0 Hit Woodwork 1
0 Assists 1
1 Injuries 1
16 Dribble Attempts 20
8 Successful Dribbles 7
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 35

Attacking

152 Attacks 68
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

53 Long Passes 67
523 Passes 343
438 Successful Passes 260
84 Successful Passes Percentage 76
15 Key Passes 6
31 Successful Long Passes 26
58 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39

Defensive

3 Saves 5
19 Tackles 17
6 Interceptions 13

Build-up

25 Total Crosses 8
8 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
13 Fouls 4

Lineup

Referee : Juxhin Xhaja

Starting XI ▼

1
Lars Unnerstall
Lars Unnerstall Goalkeeper
6.78
3
Robin Pröpper
Robin Pröpper (C) Defender
6.64
38
Max Bruns
Max Bruns
Defender46'
6.48
28
Bart van Rooij
Bart van Rooij Defender
6.98
29
Aske Adelgaard
Aske Adelgaard Defender
6.73
17
Filip Thorvaldsen
Filip Thorvaldsen
Attacker83'
6.58
43
Ruud Nijstad
Ruud Nijstad Defender
6.81
6
Ramiz Zerrouki
Ramiz Zerrouki Midfielder
7.18
7
Marko Pjaca
Marko Pjaca Midfielder
6.59
14
Kristian Hlynsson
Kristian Hlynsson
Midfielder61'
6.84
11
Daan Rots
Daan Rots Midfielder
6.14
27
Sondre Ørjasæter
Sondre Ørjasæter Midfielder
7.09
42
Daouda Weidmann
Daouda Weidmann Midfielder
7.28
25
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink
Attacker83'
6.51
9
Wout Weghorst
Wout Weghorst Attacker
6.62
10
Sam Lammers
Sam Lammers
Attacker61'
6.91
Referee : Juxhin Xhaja

Starting XI ▼

23
Martin Zlomislic
Martin Zlomislic Goalkeeper
7.87
2
Matheus Silva
Matheus Silva Defender
6.53
4
Bence Várkonyi
Bence Várkonyi Defender
6.96
5
Bruno Langa
Bruno Langa Defender
7.89
55
Badavi Hüseynov
Badavi Hüseynov (C) Defender
7.05
7
Jaly Mouaddib
Jaly Mouaddib Midfielder
7.36
8
Marko Jankovic
Marko Jankovic Midfielder
7.01
20
Kady Borges
Kady Borges Midfielder
7.68
21
Oleksiy Kashchuk
Oleksiy Kashchuk Midfielder
6.88
88
Samuel Lobato
Samuel Lobato Midfielder
6.68
22
Musa Qurbanly
Musa Qurbanly Attacker
6.71
18
Dani Bolt
Dani Bolt
Defender75'
6.47

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink → Daouda Weidmann
5th Substitution
83'
Event
Filip Thorvaldsen → Aske Adelgaard
6th Substitution
83'
75'
Event
Dani Bolt → Musa Qurbanly
4th Substitution
Event
Daan Rots
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
66'
Event
Kristian Hlynsson → Marko Pjaca
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Sam Lammers → Wout Weghorst
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Ramiz Zerrouki
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
58'
52'
Event
Kady Borges
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Max Bruns → Robin Pröpper 
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Daouda Weidmann
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
34'
Event
Aske Adelgaard
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
28'
28'
Event
Matheus Silva
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Robin Pröpper 
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
23'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Ramiz Zerrouki takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Attempt Attempt
Filip Erik Thorvaldsen takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Filip Erik Thorvaldsen takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
89
Attempt Attempt
Sondre Holmlund Orjasaeter takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
87
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Sam Lammers Head Shot Missed
83
Substitution Substitution
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink is substituted off for Daouda Weidmann.
83
Update Update
Filip Erik Thorvaldsen is on, and Adelgaard Aske is off.
82
Attempt Attempt
Adelgaard Aske takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
81
Attempt Attempt
Oleksii Kashchuk takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
78
Attempt Attempt
Kristian Hlynsson takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
76
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
75
Substitution Substitution
Daniel Lima de Castro is substituted off for Musa Qurbanly.
72
Attempt Attempt
Daouda Weidmann takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
70
Attempt Attempt
Sondre Holmlund Orjasaeter takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
70
Attempt Attempt
Bart van Rooij takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
68
Attempt Attempt
Adelgaard Aske takes a left-footed shot but misses.
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Daan Rots.
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Sam Lammers.
64
Attempt Attempt
Daouda Weidmann takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
61
Update Update
On comes Sam Lammers, and Wout Weghorst goes off.
61
Update Update
Kristian Hlynsson replaces Marko Pjaca.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Ramiz Zerrouki.
55
Attempt Attempt
Sondre Holmlund Orjasaeter attempts a header but misses the shot.
55
Attempt Attempt
Daan Rots takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
52
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Kady Iuri Borges Malinowski takes a shot with his left foot and scores a goal.
52
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
46
Attempt Attempt
Kady Iuri Borges Malinowski takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
46
Substitution Substitution
Max Bruns is substituted off for Robin Propper.
45
Attempt Attempt
Daouda Weidmann takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Oleksii Kashchuk with his right foot is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Jaly Mouaddib takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
45
Attempt Attempt
Jaly Mouaddib takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
42
Attempt Attempt
Jaly Mouaddib takes a right-footed shot but misses.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
38
Attempt Attempt
Marko Pjaca takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
36
Attempt Attempt
Daouda Weidmann takes a right-footed shot but misses.
34
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Daouda Weidmann.
31
Attempt Attempt
Marko Pjaca takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
31
Attempt Attempt
Bart van Rooij takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
28
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Matheus Silva.
28
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Aske Adelgaard.
23
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Robin Propper.
7
Attempt Attempt
Sondre Holmlund Orjasaeter takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Juxhin Xhaja.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: FC Twente 0-1 Qarabağ. Structural assessment: Qarabağ exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.