Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Sabah preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Stadionul Valentin Stănescu
Champions League
Hapoel Be'er ShevaHBS
2 1
SabahSABA
Full Time
Play-offs Leg 1 of 2
Javon East - 43'
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Hapoel Be'er Sheva defeated Sabah 2-1 in the first leg of their tie. The match was level at 1-1 after the first half. Hapoel Be'er Sheva held 67 percent possession compared to Sabah's 33 percent. Expected goals stood at 1.72 for the home side and 0.65 for the visitors, producing a differential of 1.07. The outcome aligned with the expected goals projection. No red cards were issued during the contest. Pre-match market indicators showed a significant deviation of 63.6 percent favoring Hapoel Be'er Sheva despite Sabah being designated the stronger team on paper.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hapoel Be'er Sheva produced a significant 63.6 percent deviation from pre-match indicators.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiency remained in line with underlying performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: The final result proved consistent with the expected goals distribution.
  • Market alignment: The observed outcome matched pre-match market alignment indicators.
  • xG expectations: Hapoel Be'er Sheva generated an expected goals advantage of 1.07 over Sabah.
  • Event impact: The 2-1 scoreline reflected the home side's second-half adjustments after a 1-1 interval.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, leaving match dynamics free of disciplinary distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Massa
D. Massa
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.32
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
F. Meli
F. Meli
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Berti
A. Berti
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Marcenaro
M. Marcenaro
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Hapoel Be'er Sheva R. Kozuch
R. Kozuch
VS
Sabah V. Dambrauskas
V. Dambrauskas
2.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.5
2.25 i
Last 6 Opponents
Crvena Zvezda Rank: W
Crvena Zvezda Rank: W
Víkingur Reykjavík Rank: W
Víkingur Reykjavík Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
AGF Rank: 75 W
AGF Rank: 76 L
KuPS Rank: W
KuPS Rank: W
The New Saints Rank: 61 W
The New Saints Rank: 61 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hapoel Be'er Sheva
36.4%
Draw
28.31%
Away Sabah
35.28%

Movement

Changes since opening
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
-57.9%
Draw
+23.25%
Sabah
+34.64%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
40
43.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
Sabah
Power Score
40
43.33
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hapoel Be'er Sheva — Opponent-weighted form score
Sabah — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hapoel Be'er Sheva Sabah

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hapoel Be'er Sheva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sabah

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hapoel Be'er Sheva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sabah
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.24
29.70
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.70
32.24
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hapoel Be'er Sheva +0.10 Efficiency Index
vs
Sabah -0.10 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
Sabah
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hapoel Be'er Sheva
vs
Sabah
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hapoel Be'er Sheva Sabah
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
29%
29%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.50 vs -0.19
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hapoel Be'er Sheva Sabah
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
29%
29%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.19 vs -0.50
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
Sabah
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
vs
Sabah
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Hapoel Be'er Sheva Sabah
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Hapoel Be'er Sheva 0.25
Sabah 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hapoel Be'er Sheva Sabah
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Hapoel Be'er Sheva 0.03
Sabah 0.03
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
Sabah
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • HBS had peak pressure around 27'.
  • SABA started the game with stronger pressure.
HBS Pressure SABA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: HBS reached the top pressure at 27' (88.49).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · Play-offs · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Stadionul Valentin Stănescu
Capacity
16000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Davide Massa
Filippo Meli
Alessio Berti
Matteo Marcenaro

Statistics

Possession
HBS
64%
SABA
36%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 3
72 Dangerous attacks 36
67 Possession 33
3 Corners 2
6 Free kicks 12
3 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

87 Ball Safe 85
5 Goal Kicks 7
10 Goal Attempts 7
4 Substitutions 3
27 Throwins 15
1 Assists 1
0 Injuries 1
15 Dribble Attempts 13
6 Successful Dribbles 4
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 31

Attacking

133 Attacks 71
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

41 Long Passes 52
659 Passes 305
595 Successful Passes 237
90 Successful Passes Percentage 78
14 Key Passes 6
25 Successful Long Passes 28
61 Successful Long Passes Percentage 54

Defensive

4 Saves 4
20 Tackles 20
10 Interceptions 6
41 Duels Won 41

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 18
5 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
12 Fouls 6

Lineup

Referee : Davide Massa

Starting XI ▼

1
Ofir Marciano
Ofir Marciano Goalkeeper
7.08
2
Guy Mizrahi
Guy Mizrahi Defender
6.9
4
Miguel Vítor
Miguel Vítor (C) Defender
6.88
5
Pedro Amador
Pedro Amador Defender
7.46
12
Itay Rotman
Itay Rotman Defender
6.86
7
Eliel Peretz
Eliel Peretz Midfielder
7.84
25
Lucas Ventura
Lucas Ventura Midfielder
6.85
28
Niv Yehoshua
Niv Yehoshua Midfielder
7.06
8
Hamode Kanaan
Hamode Kanaan
Attacker85'
6.65
9
Zahi Ahmed
Zahi Ahmed Attacker
6.78
11
Amir Ganah
Amir Ganah
Attacker66'
6.76
20
Javon East
Javon East Attacker
7
45
Muhammad Abu Rumi
Muhammad Abu Rumi
Attacker71'
6.48
66
Igor Zlatanovic
Igor Zlatanovic Attacker
7.92
14
Yonas Malede
Yonas Malede
Attacker85'
6.47
Referee : Davide Massa

Starting XI ▼

92
Stas Pokatilov
Stas Pokatilov (C) Goalkeeper
7.09
3
Steve Solvet
Steve Solvet Defender
7.14
33
Júnior Almeida
Júnior Almeida
Defender89'
5
Rahman Dashdamirov
Rahman Dashdamirov Defender
6.98
27
Tymoteusz Puchacz
Tymoteusz Puchacz Defender
7.47
80
Akim Zedadka
Akim Zedadka Defender
6.75
7
Umarali Rakhmonaliev
Umarali Rakhmonaliev Midfielder
6.37
10
Aleksey Isayev
Aleksey Isayev Midfielder
6.63
8
Christian Nwachukwu
Christian Nwachukwu
Attacker74'
6.4
13
Ivan Lepinjica
Ivan Lepinjica Midfielder
6.54
21
Veljko Simic
Veljko Simic Midfielder
7.47
34
Xander Severina
Xander Severina Midfielder
6.34
99
Orphé Mbina
Orphé Mbina
Attacker56'
6.71
20
Joy-Lance Mickels
Joy-Lance Mickels Attacker
6.49

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Júnior Almeida → Steve Solvet
7th Substitution
Event
Hamode Kanaan → Niv Yehoshua
5th Substitution
85'
Event
Yonas Malede → Igor Zlatanovic
6th Substitution
85'
Event
Amir Ganah
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
84'
Event
Igor Zlatanovic
Header / 3rd Goal
79'
Event
Itay Rotman
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
77'
Event
Miguel Vítor 
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
76'
74'
Event
Christian Nwachukwu → Aleksey Isayev
4th Substitution
Event
Muhammad Abu Rumi → Javon East
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Amir Ganah → Zahi Ahmed
2nd Substitution
66'
56'
Event
Orphé Mbina → Xander Severina
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Javon East
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
43'
6'
Event
Veljko Simic
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Miguel Angelo Leonardo Vitor attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
89
Attempt Attempt
Mohammed Abu Rumi takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
89
Attempt Attempt
Mohammad Kanaan takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
89
Update Update
On comes Almeida, off goes Steve Solvet.
88
Attempt Attempt
Steve Solvet attempts a header but misses the shot.
87
Attempt Attempt
Joy-Lance Mickels takes a header shot but misses.
85
Update Update
Mohammad Kanaan comes on for Niv Yehoshua.
85
Update Update
Yonas Malede comes on for Igor Zlatanovic.
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Amir Chaim Ganah.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Amir Chaim Ganah.
82
Update Update
Offside.
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Igor Zlatanovic, and he scores with a header!
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Igor Zlatanovic scores to make it 2-1, assisted by Eliel Peretz.
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-1.
78
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
77
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Itay Rotman.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Itay Rotman.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Miguel Angelo Leonardo Vitor.
74
Substitution Substitution
Christian Nwachukwu is substituted off for Aleksey Isaev.
73
Attempt Attempt
Mohammed Abu Rumi takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
71
Update Update
On comes Mohammed Abu Rumi, off goes Javon Romario East.
70
Attempt Attempt
Igor Zlatanovic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
67
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Lucas de Souza Ventura from Nonoca with a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
67
Attempt Attempt
Igor Zlatanovic's right-footed shot is blocked.
66
Update Update
On Amir Chaim Ganah, Off Zahi Ahmed.
65
Attempt Attempt
Igor Zlatanovic's left-footed shot is blocked.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
62
Attempt Attempt
Orphe Mbina takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
59
Attempt Attempt
Orphe Mbina takes a right-footed shot but misses.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Orphe Mbina comes on for Xander Severina.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
43
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Javon Romario East takes a left-footed shot and scores.
43
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Javon Romario East takes a left-footed shot and scores.
43
Attempt Attempt
Guy Mizrahi takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
43
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Javon Romario scores, bringing the match to 1-1.
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
35
Attempt Attempt
Joy-Lance Mickels takes a shot, but it is saved.
27
Attempt Attempt
Xander Severina's left-footed shot is saved.
25
Attempt Attempt
Igor Zlatanovic takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
25
Update Update
Igor Zlatanovic's header is blocked.
21
Update Update
Offside.
16
Update Update
Offside.
14
Attempt Attempt
Igor Zlatanovic attempts a header but misses the shot.
14
Update Update
Offside.
11
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
6
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Veljko Simic results in a goal with a header.
6
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Joy-Lance Mickels scores to make it 0-1.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Davide Massa.

CONCLUSION

Hapoel Be'er Sheva secured a narrow victory through sustained possession control and superior chance creation measured at 1.72 expected goals. Sabah remained compact but managed only 0.65 expected goals across the full match. The halftime parity at 1-1 gave way to a decisive home goal in the second period. Absence of red cards allowed both sides to maintain their intended structures without forced adjustments. The result stayed consistent with the expected goals profile and market alignment signals. Hapoel Be'er Sheva's 67 percent possession share translated into the winning margin of 2-1. This outcome positions the home side favorably ahead of the second leg.