Lugano vs NSÍ preview
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Stadio di Cornaredo
Thu, 6 Aug - 6:30 PM
3rd Qualifying Round ·
Leg 1 of 2
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Aug 12
CONTEXT
Lugano secured a comfortable 2-0 win over NSÍ in the opening leg of their knockout tie. The match began with the home team asserting control from the outset, resulting in a 1-0 halftime advantage. Lugano's dominance was evident in their 69 percent possession and creation of 3.24 expected goals, while NSÍ managed only 0.68 in that metric. The visitors struggled to create meaningful opportunities throughout the ninety minutes. No red cards were issued, allowing the game to proceed without disciplinary interruptions. The outcome proved consistent with the pre-match expectations for the stronger side in this encounter. This result positions Lugano favorably heading into the second leg away from home. Their efficient use of possession and chance creation highlighted the gap in quality between the two sides.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Final score: Lugano 2-0 NSÍ. Lugano showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with pre-match expectations for the stronger side.
-
xG alignment: The match outcome aligned with the expected goals differential of 2.56.
-
Market alignment: The result was consistent with market alignment indicators.
-
xG expectations: Lugano generated 3.24 expected goals compared to 0.68 for NSÍ.
-
Event impact: No major events altered the flow beyond the standard match progression.
-
Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion from disciplinary actions.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
V. Kopievskiy
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
30.4
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
4
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0.36
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0.36
League Avg
0
S. Shlonchak
1st Assistant
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
V. Nyzhnyk
2nd Assistant
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
D. Kubryak
4th Official
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
M. Croci-Torti
VS
S. Eyjolfsson
3
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.75
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dukagjini
Rank: 56
W
Dukagjini
Rank: 55
W
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1.75 i
Last 6 Opponents
Koper
Rank: 72
W
Koper
Rank: 72
L
Hamrun Spartans
Rank:
W
Hamrun Spartans
Rank:
D
0
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Lugano
83.74%
Draw
11.09%
NSÍ
5.17%
Movement
Changes since opening
Lugano
-8.1%
Draw
+4.78%
NSÍ
+3.32%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
34.94
33.33
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lugano
NSÍ
Power Score
34.94
33.33
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Lugano
—
Opponent-weighted form score
NSÍ
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Lugano NSÍ
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Lugano
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
NSÍ
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Lugano
vs
NSÍ
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Lugano
NSÍ
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
37%
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-1.20
vs
-0.25
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Lugano
NSÍ
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
36%
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.25
vs
-1.20
Lugano
NSÍ
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Lugano
vs
NSÍ
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
Lugano
NSÍ
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
Lugano
0.00
NSÍ
0.00
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lugano
NSÍ
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
Lugano
0.00
NSÍ
0.00
Lugano
NSÍ
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- LUGA had peak pressure around 67'.
- LUGA started the game with stronger pressure.
LUGA Pressure
NSÍ Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
LUGA reached the top pressure at 67' (98.07).
STARTING XI
Match Formation
3-4-1-2
Match Formation
5-4-1
46 M. Zanotti
21 Y. Cimignani
14 A. Kendouci
24 E. Pihlström
25 U. Bislimi
11 (C) R. Steffen
91 K. Behrens
General Information
Date & Time
Aug 06, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Stadio di Cornaredo
Capacity
6390
Attendance
3328
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Viktor Kopievskiy
Semen Shlonchak
Viktor Nyzhnyk
Dmitriy Kubryak
Next Match
Lugano
vs
Zürich
League: Super League
Kickoff: Sun, 9 Aug - 12:00 PM
Venue: Stadio di Cornaredo
NSÍ
vs
Lugano
League: Europa Conference League
Kickoff: Thu, 13 Aug - 5:30 PM
Venue: Við Djúpumýrar
Statistics
Possession
LUGA
65%
NSÍ
35%
Top Statistics
2
Goals
0
2
Big Chances Created
0
13
Shots
2
111
Dangerous attacks
26
69
Possession
31
15
Corners
3
3
Free kicks
16
Match Overview
57
Ball Safe
80
6
Goal Kicks
20
24
Goal Attempts
4
4
Substitutions
2
17
Throwins
10
2
Hit Woodwork
0
2
Assists
0
9
Dribble Attempts
9
5
Successful Dribbles
5
56
Successful Dribbles Percentage
56
Attacking
108
Attacks
76
1
Big Chances Missed
0
Possession
26
Long Passes
68
591
Passes
274
535
Successful Passes
203
91
Successful Passes Percentage
74
16
Successful Long Passes
21
62
Successful Long Passes Percentage
31
Defensive
1
Saves
6
8
Tackles
7
6
Interceptions
6
Build-up
50
Total Crosses
15
15
Accurate Crosses
2
Discipline
16
Fouls
3
Lineup
Referee :
Viktor Kopievskiy
Manager ▼
M. Croci-Torti
Coach
Starting XI ▼
Substitutes ▼
28
Felix Gebhardt
Goalkeeper
39
Ahmadou Ndiaye
Goalkeeper
17
Lukas Mai
Defender
18
Joel Bichsel
Defender
44
Carbone
Defender
23
Gjan Ajdin
Midfielder
32
Nicolò Puddu
Midfielder
33
Christian Raffa
Midfielder
Referee :
Viktor Kopievskiy
Manager ▼
S. Eyjolfsson
Coach
Starting XI ▼
Substitutes ▼
1
Kristian Joensen
Goalkeeper
30
Dánial Danielsen
Goalkeeper
22
Jóel Tróndargjógv
Defender
10
Klaemint Olsen
Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
85'
6th Substitution
5th Substitution
82'
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
79'
77'
4th Substitution
3rd Substitution
72'
1st Substitution
61'
2nd Substitution
61'
1ST-HALF
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
7'
CONCLUSION
Final score detail: Lugano 2-0 NSÍ. Structural assessment: Lugano exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.
Match Commentary