Borac Banja Luka vs ML Vitebsk preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Gradski Stadion, Foca Thu, 6 Aug - 6:30 PM
Europa Conference League
Borac Banja LukaBBL
1 0
ML VitebskML Vitebsk
Full Time Thu, 6 Aug 6:30 PM
3rd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Stefan Savic - 14'
Goal
|
|
Second yellow card Milad Mohammadi 33'

CONTEXT

Borac Banja Luka faced ML Vitebsk in the first leg of a two-legged knockout tie. The home team took the lead in the opening period and held on for a 1-0 win after the halftime score of 1-0. Borac maintained 61 percent possession while the visitors held 39 percent. ML Vitebsk was shown one red card which altered the flow after the break. Despite entering as the stronger side the away team could not recover from the numerical disadvantage. The single goal proved decisive as Borac claimed victory on the night. The narrow margin sets up an intriguing return fixture with the aggregate still open.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Borac Banja Luka 1-0 ML Vitebsk. Borac Banja Luka showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match patterns.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable for alignment review.
  • Market alignment: The final result aligned with market projections.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals figures were recorded during the match.
  • Event impact: The fixture formed the opening leg of a two-legged tie.
  • Red card distortion: The away red card altered second half team dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Kooij
J. Kooij
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
D. Fikkert
D. Fikkert
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
H. Kucukerbir
H. Kucukerbir
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. van der Laan
J. van der Laan
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Borac Banja Luka V. Marinović
V. Marinović
VS
ML Vitebsk I. Ryabov
I. Ryabov
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Petrocub Rank: D
Petrocub Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sutjeska Rank: W
Sutjeska Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Borac Banja Luka
96.52%
Draw
2.84%
Away ML Vitebsk
0.64%

Movement

Changes since opening
Borac Banja Luka
+1.34%
Draw
-1.34%
ML Vitebsk
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
26.3
30
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Borac Banja Luka
ML Vitebsk
Power Score
26.3
30
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Borac Banja Luka — Opponent-weighted form score
ML Vitebsk — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Borac Banja Luka ML Vitebsk

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Borac Banja Luka

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

ML Vitebsk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Borac Banja Luka ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy ML Vitebsk
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Borac Banja Luka ML Vitebsk
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Borac Banja Luka ML Vitebsk
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Borac Banja Luka
ML Vitebsk
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Borac Banja Luka
vs
ML Vitebsk
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Borac Banja Luka ML Vitebsk
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Borac Banja Luka 0.00
ML Vitebsk 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Borac Banja Luka ML Vitebsk
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Borac Banja Luka 0.00
ML Vitebsk 0.00
Borac Banja Luka
ML Vitebsk
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BBL had peak pressure around 79'.
  • BBL started the game with stronger pressure.
BBL Pressure ML Vitebsk Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BBL reached the top pressure at 79' (84.77).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-1-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 06, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Gradski Stadion, Foca
Capacity
10030
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Joey Kooij
Dyon Fikkert
Halis Murat Kucukerbir
Jannick van der Laan

Statistics

Possession
BBL
55%
ML Vitebsk
45%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
6 Shots 4
71 Dangerous attacks 37
61 Possession 39
8 Corners 1
14 Free kicks 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

57 Ball Safe 78
17 Goal Attempts 6
3 Substitutions 5
18 Throwins 28
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

88 Attacks 81

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
15 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Joey Kooij

Starting XI ▼

72
Mladen Jurkas
Mladen Jurkas (C) Goalkeeper
2
Bart Meijers
Bart Meijers Defender
16
Sebastián Herrera
Sebastián Herrera Defender
19
Viktor Rogan
Viktor Rogan Defender
24
Jurich Carolina
Jurich Carolina Defender
11
Damir Hrelja
Damir Hrelja Midfielder
44
Ante Roguljic
Ante Roguljic
Midfielder70'
18
Milos Jojic
Milos Jojic Midfielder
77
Stefan Savic
Stefan Savic Midfielder
10
David Vukovic
David Vukovic
Midfielder78'
98
Sandi Ogrinec
Sandi Ogrinec Midfielder
7
Luka Juricic
Luka Juricic Attacker
89
Matej Deket
Matej Deket Attacker
12
Amer Hiros
Amer Hiros
Midfielder60'
Referee : Joey Kooij

Starting XI ▼

1
Pavel Pavlyuchenko
Pavel Pavlyuchenko Goalkeeper
5
Milad Mohammadi
Milad Mohammadi Defender
6
Kirill Gomanov
Kirill Gomanov Defender
20
Zakhar Volkov
Zakhar Volkov (C) Defender
12
Radivoj Bosic
Radivoj Bosic Midfielder
18
Vladislav Zhuk
Vladislav Zhuk
Midfielder84'
15
Valeriy Bocherov
Valeriy Bocherov Midfielder
22
Yan Skibskiy
Yan Skibskiy Midfielder
45
Ilya Moskalenchik
Ilya Moskalenchik
Defender67'
27
Aleksandar Mesarovic
Aleksandar Mesarovic Midfielder
55
Valeriy Gromyko
Valeriy Gromyko Midfielder
8
Silas Gnaka
Silas Gnaka
Midfielder67'
80
Artem Kontsevoy
Artem Kontsevoy Midfielder
10
Denilho Cleonise
Denilho Cleonise
Midfielder84'
9
Bassekou Diabaté
Bassekou Diabaté Attacker
3
Nikita Baranok
Nikita Baranok
Defender54'

Events

2ND-HALF
84'
Event
Denilho Cleonise → Artem Kontsevoy
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Vladislav Zhuk → Radivoj Bosic
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Artem Kontsevoy
4th Yellowcard
Event
David Vukovic → Stefan Savic
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Ante Roguljic → Damir Hrelja
5th Substitution
70'
67'
Event
Silas Gnaka → Valeriy Gromyko
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Ilya Moskalenchik → Yan Skibskiy
4th Substitution
Event
Amer Hiros → Matej Deket
2nd Substitution
60'
54'
Event
Nikita Baranok → Bassekou Diabaté
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Sebastián Herrera
3rd Yellowcard
45+1'
36'
Event
Aleksandar Mesarovic
2nd Yellowcard
33'
Event
Milad Mohammadi
1st Yellow/red Card
21'
Event
Milad Mohammadi
1st Yellowcard
Event
Stefan Savic
Field Goal / 1st Goal
14'

Match Commentary

84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
84
Update Update
Vladislav Zhuk is on, and Radivoj Bosic is off.
83
Update Update
Denilho Cleonise is on, and Artem Kontsevoj is off.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
78
Update Update
David Vukovic is on, and Stefan Savic is off.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
70
Update Update
Ante Roguljic comes on for Damir Hrelja.
67
Update Update
Silas Gnaka is on, and Valeriy Gromyko is off.
67
Substitution Substitution
Ilya Moskalenchik is substituted off for Yan Skibskiy.
64
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
60
Update Update
On comes Amer Hiros, off goes Matej Deket.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
54
Update Update
Nikita Baranok replaces Bassekou Diabate.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Sebastian Herrera Cardona.
36
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Aleksandar Mesarovic.
33
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Milad Mohammadi receives a second yellow card.
33
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card shown to Milad Mohammadi.
26
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
21
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
14
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Joey Kooij.

CONCLUSION

Borac Banja Luka delivered a controlled performance to edge the first leg against the stronger ML Vitebsk side. The early goal and the visitors red card combined to limit opportunities after the interval. Possession dominance allowed the home team to manage the game without major threats. The 1-0 scoreline provides a slender advantage ahead of the return match. ML Vitebsk will need to overcome both the deficit and the disciplinary setback to progress. Both teams now prepare for the second leg where tactical adjustments will be critical. The outcome keeps the tie balanced and competitive for the next encounter.