Žalgiris vs Hajduk Split preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Vilniaus LFF stadionas Thu, 6 Aug - 5:00 PM
Europa Conference League
ŽalgirisŽLG
2 5
Hajduk SplitHAJ
Full Time Thu, 6 Aug 5:00 PM
3rd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Marko Capan - 86'
Goal
|
Goal
Michele Sego - 5' (P), 45'

CONTEXT

Žalgiris hosted Hajduk Split in the first leg of a two-legged knockout tie and suffered a 2-5 defeat. The home side held a 1-2 halftime lead but conceded three goals after the break as the visitors took control. Possession figures finished nearly level at 48 percent for Žalgiris and 52 percent for Hajduk Split. No red cards were issued to either team. Žalgiris entered as the stronger side according to pre-match indicators yet could not maintain their advantage. The result produced a significant deviation of 51.5 percent with Hajduk Split as the outperforming side. Efficiency metrics remained in line with the final outcome and the result aligned with available market signals.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hajduk Split produced a significant 51.5 percent deviation from pre-match indicators.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift finished in line with the recorded performance data.
  • xG alignment: No expected goals figures were recorded to evaluate alignment.
  • Market alignment: The final result aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals data were unavailable for performance assessment.
  • Event impact: Hajduk Split won the first leg 5-2 after leading 2-1 at halftime.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred and therefore no structural distortion took place.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Nagtegaal
M. Nagtegaal
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
S. de Groot
S. de Groot
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Balder
J. Balder
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Bos
A. Bos
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Žalgiris A. Skerla
A. Skerla
VS
Hajduk Split G. García García
G. García García
2.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
2.25 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dinamo Tbilisi Rank: W
Dinamo Tbilisi Rank: L
Petrovac Rank: W
Petrovac Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Žalgiris
25.23%
Draw
26.27%
Away Hajduk Split
48.51%

Movement

Changes since opening
Žalgiris
+23.79%
Draw
+24.37%
Hajduk Split
-48.15%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
40
27.62
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Žalgiris
Hajduk Split
Power Score
40
27.62
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Žalgiris — Opponent-weighted form score
Hajduk Split — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Žalgiris Hajduk Split

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Žalgiris

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hajduk Split

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Žalgiris ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hajduk Split
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Žalgiris Hajduk Split
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Žalgiris Hajduk Split
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Žalgiris
Hajduk Split
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Žalgiris
vs
Hajduk Split
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Žalgiris Hajduk Split
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Žalgiris 0.00
Hajduk Split 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Žalgiris Hajduk Split
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Žalgiris 0.00
Hajduk Split 0.00
Žalgiris
Hajduk Split
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • HAJ had peak pressure around 30'.
  • HAJ started the game with stronger pressure.
ŽLG Pressure HAJ Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: HAJ reached the top pressure at 30' (63.42).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 06, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Vilniaus LFF stadionas
Capacity
5067
Attendance
4975
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Marc Nagtegaal
Stefan de Groot
Johan Balder
Alex Bos

Statistics

Possession
ŽLG
47%
HAJ
53%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 5
1 Shots 10
58 Dangerous attacks 68
48 Possession 52
2 Corners 5
18 Free kicks 11
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

72 Ball Safe 66
0 Penalties 2
6 Goal Attempts 14
5 Substitutions 5
18 Throwins 13

Attacking

98 Attacks 99

Discipline

2 Offsides 4
14 Fouls 20

Lineup

Referee : Marc Nagtegaal

Starting XI ▼

12
Vincentas Šarkauskas
Vincentas Šarkauskas Goalkeeper
5.11
4
Danny Lupano
Danny Lupano Defender
5.51
15
Petar Bosančić
Petar Bosančić Defender
5.5
5
Grigore Turda
Grigore Turda
Defender81'
6.5
21
Dominik Franke
Dominik Franke Defender
5.51
77
Walter Díaz
Walter Díaz (C) Defender
5.5
22
Ovidijus Verbickas
Ovidijus Verbickas
Midfielder81'
6.5
10
Paulius Golubickas
Paulius Golubickas Midfielder
5.99
27
Matas Vareika
Matas Vareika
Midfielder75'
6.5
18
Deividas Šešplaukis
Deividas Šešplaukis Midfielder
5.95
20
Ivan Lytvynenko
Ivan Lytvynenko Midfielder
6.18
6
Marko Capan
Marko Capan
Midfielder65'
6.47
70
Bryan Teixeira
Bryan Teixeira Midfielder
5.99
11
Nikola Petković
Nikola Petković Attacker
6.66
7
Nemanja Mihajlović
Nemanja Mihajlović
Midfielder75'
6.5
19
Stanislav Bilenkyi
Stanislav Bilenkyi Attacker
6.39
Referee : Marc Nagtegaal

Starting XI ▼

33
Toni Silic
Toni Silic (C) Goalkeeper
5.88
5
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck Defender
6.26
14
Ron Raci
Ron Raci
Defender49'
6.26
15
Dario Maresic
Dario Maresic Defender
6.05
22
Mathieu Acapandié
Mathieu Acapandié Defender
6.05
32
Simun Hrgovic
Simun Hrgovic Defender
6.05
4
Adrion Pajaziti
Adrion Pajaziti Midfielder
6.47
7
Abdoulie Sanyang
Abdoulie Sanyang Midfielder
6.37
16
Andjelo Sutalo
Andjelo Sutalo
Midfielder67'
6.48
9
Dalisson de Almeida
Dalisson de Almeida Midfielder
6.57
19
Etnik Brruti
Etnik Brruti
Midfielder78'
6.37
21
Rokas Pukstas
Rokas Pukstas Midfielder
6.52
8
Niko Sigur
Niko Sigur
Defender78'
6.26
23
Marin Soticek
Marin Soticek Midfielder
6.38
11
Michele Sego
Michele Sego Attacker
2
6.63
10
Marko Livaja
Marko Livaja
Attacker67'
6.46

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Marin Soticek
Goal disallowed
Event
Marko Capan
Field Goal / 6th Goal
86'
Event
Grigore Turda → Petar Bosančić
9th Substitution
81'
Event
Ovidijus Verbickas  → Walter Díaz
10th Substitution
81'
Event
Deividas Šešplaukis
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
78'
78'
Event
Etnik Brruti → Dalisson de Almeida
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Niko Sigur → Rokas Pukstas
8th Substitution
Event
Nemanja Mihajlović → Nikola Petković
5th Substitution
75'
Event
Matas Vareika → Paulius Golubickas
6th Substitution
75'
75'
Event
Rokas Pukstas
Field Goal / 5th Goal
73'
Event
Dalisson de Almeida
Field Goal / 4th Goal
67'
Event
Marko Livaja → Michele Sego
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Andjelo Sutalo → Abdoulie Sanyang
4th Substitution
Event
Marko Capan → Ivan Lytvynenko
2nd Substitution
65'
56'
Event
Adrion Pajaziti
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
51'
Event
Rokas Pukstas
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
49'
Event
Ron Raci → Alec Van Hoorenbeeck
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Michele Sego
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
Event
Nikola Petković
Field Goal / 1st Goal
35'
Event
Petar Bosančić
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
25'
14'
Event
Michele Sego
1st Missed Penalty
5'
Event
Michele Sego
Penalty / 1st Penalty
Event
Walter Díaz
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
4'

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
VAR decision: Goal disallowed for offside against Marin Soticek.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-6.
86
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Marko Capan scores, making it 2-5.
81
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Marko Capan scores, making it 2-5.
81
Update Update
Ovidijus Verbickas is on, and Yuri Kendysh is off.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Etnik Brruti comes on for Dalisson de Almeida.
78
Update Update
Niko Sigur is on, and Rokas Pukstas is off.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card.
75
Update Update
Matas Vareika comes on for Paulius Golubickas.
75
Update Update
Nemanja Mihajlovic comes on for Nikola Petkovic.
75
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Rokas Pukstas scores, making it 1-5.
73
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Dalisson de Almeida scores, making it 1-4.
67
Update Update
Andjelo Sutalo replaces Abdoulie Sanyang.
67
Update Update
Marko Livaja is on, and Michele Sego is off.
65
Update Update
Marko Capan comes on for Ivan Lytvynenko.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Adrion Pajaziti scores, making it 1-3.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
51
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Rokas Pukstas receives a yellow card.
49
Update Update
On Ron Raqi, off Alec Van Hoorenbeeck.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Michele Sego scores, making it 1-2.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
35
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nikola Petkovic scores, making it 1-1.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
26
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
25
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Petar Bosancic.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
14
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved by Michele Sego.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
5
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Michele Sego scores, making it 0-1.
5
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
4
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Marc Nagtegaal.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Žalgiris 2-5 Hajduk Split. Structural assessment: Hajduk Split exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.