Valur vs Nordsjælland preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Origovöllurinn
Europa Conference League
ValurVAL
0 2
NordsjællandFCN
Full Time
3rd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Valur hosted Nordsjælland in the first leg of their tie. The match ended 0-2 with Nordsjælland securing the win. At halftime the score stood at 0-1. Valur recorded 0.78 expected goals while Nordsjælland posted 3.06 expected goals. Possession favored Nordsjælland at 65 percent against Valur's 35 percent. No red cards were issued to either side. The stronger team on paper was Valur yet Nordsjælland claimed victory. The outcome aligned with the expected goals and showed a 24.6 percent deviation that was rated significant for Nordsjælland. Efficiency remained in line with the underlying metrics throughout the contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Valur 0-2 Nordsjælland. Nordsjælland showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with the underlying performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: The final result proved consistent with the expected goals distribution.
  • Market alignment: The observed outcome matched the pre-match market alignment.
  • xG expectations: Nordsjælland generated 3.06 expected goals against Valur's 0.78.
  • Event impact: No red cards occurred and the match proceeded without such events.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion to the match flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
G. Bogár
G. Bogár
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
B. Buzás
B. Buzás
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
P. Kobor
P. Kobor
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
B. Berke
B. Berke
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Valur C. Brazell
C. Brazell
VS
Nordsjælland J. Olsen
J. Olsen
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.5
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zrinjski Rank: 59 D
Zrinjski Rank: 59 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
GAIS Rank: 63 W
GAIS Rank: 62 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Valur
9.93%
Draw
14.7%
Away Nordsjælland
75.37%

Movement

Changes since opening
Valur
+9.28%
Draw
+12.79%
Nordsjælland
-22.07%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
36.67
30.43
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Valur
Nordsjælland
Power Score
36.67
30.43
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Valur — Opponent-weighted form score
Nordsjælland — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Valur Nordsjælland

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Valur

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Nordsjælland

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Valur
vs
Nordsjælland
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Valur Nordsjælland
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
22%
30%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.17 vs +0.10
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Valur Nordsjælland
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
30%
22%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
+0.10 vs -0.17
Valur
Nordsjælland
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Valur
vs
Nordsjælland
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Valur Nordsjælland
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Valur 0.00
Nordsjælland 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Valur Nordsjælland
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Valur 0.00
Nordsjælland 0.00
Valur
Nordsjælland
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FCN had peak pressure around 53'.
  • FCN started the game with stronger pressure.
VAL Pressure FCN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FCN reached the top pressure at 53' (96.09).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-4-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Origovöllurinn
Capacity
1500
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Gergő Bogár
Balázs Buzás
Peter Kobor
Balazs Berke

Statistics

Possession
VAL
37%
FCN
63%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 3
2 Shots 11
26 Dangerous attacks 91
35 Possession 65
3 Corners 9
15 Free kicks 5
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

74 Ball Safe 58
0 Penalties 1
17 Goal Kicks 3
4 Goal Attempts 19
5 Substitutions 5
5 Throwins 16
0 Assists 1
1 Injuries 0
13 Dribble Attempts 14
6 Successful Dribbles 7
46 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

Attacking

49 Attacks 85
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

50 Long Passes 40
359 Passes 690
296 Successful Passes 627
82 Successful Passes Percentage 91
26 Successful Long Passes 22
52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55

Defensive

4 Saves 2
10 Tackles 14
8 Interceptions 8

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 22
2 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
6 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Gergő Bogár

Starting XI ▼

18
Frederik Schram
Frederik Schram Goalkeeper
7.13
4
Markus Nakkim
Markus Nakkim Defender
7.25
15
Hólmar Örn Eyjólfsson
Hólmar Örn Eyjólfsson (C) Defender
6.69
22
Birkir Heimisson
Birkir Heimisson Defender
6.36
3
Hördur Ingi Gunnarsson
Hördur Ingi Gunnarsson
Defender67'
6.22
24
Myles Veldman
Myles Veldman Defender
6.21
28
Samúel Fridjónsson
Samúel Fridjónsson Defender
7.12
8
Jónatan Ingi Jónsson
Jónatan Ingi Jónsson Midfielder
6.32
9
Patrick Pedersen
Patrick Pedersen
Attacker79'
6.57
12
Tryggvi Hrafn Haraldsson
Tryggvi Hrafn Haraldsson Midfielder
6.81
14
Albin Skoglund
Albin Skoglund Midfielder
6.32
6
Bjarni Mark Antonsson Duffield
Bjarni Mark Antonsson Duffield
Midfielder79'
6.44
17
Lúkas Logi Heimisson
Lúkas Logi Heimisson Midfielder
6.35
5
Kristófer Dagur Arnarsson
Kristófer Dagur Arnarsson
Midfielder79'
6.67
19
Dagur Orri Gardarson
Dagur Orri Gardarson Attacker
6.53
11
Ingimar Torbjörnsson Stöle
Ingimar Torbjörnsson Stöle
Defender67'
6.29
Referee : Gergő Bogár

Starting XI ▼

13
Andreas Hansen
Andreas Hansen Goalkeeper
7.37
2
Peter Ankersen
Peter Ankersen Defender
7.78
3
Tobias Salquist
Tobias Salquist (C) Defender
7.1
15
Stephen Acquah
Stephen Acquah Defender
7.06
8
Nicklas Røjkjær
Nicklas Røjkjær
Midfielder67'
7.21
18
Justin Janssen
Justin Janssen Midfielder
7.76
23
Runar Norheim
Runar Norheim Midfielder
6.82
25
Juho Lähteenmäki
Juho Lähteenmäki Midfielder
6.92
4
Noah Markmann
Noah Markmann
Defender83'
6.42
47
Malte Heyde
Malte Heyde Midfielder
7
6
Mark Brink
Mark Brink
Midfielder53'
6.66
14
Ibrahim Adel
Ibrahim Adel Attacker
7.61
17
Levy Nene
Levy Nene
Attacker84'
6.48
29
Villum Berthelsen
Villum Berthelsen Attacker
7.78
10
Prince Amoako Junior
Prince Amoako Junior
Attacker66'
7.09
40
Hjalte Boe Rasmussen
Hjalte Boe Rasmussen Attacker
6.96

Events

2ND-HALF
88'
Event
Justin Janssen
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
84'
Event
Levy Nene → Ibrahim Adel
10th Substitution
Event
Tryggvi Hrafn Haraldsson
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
83'
83'
Event
Noah Markmann → Juho Lähteenmäki
9th Substitution
Event
Bjarni Mark Antonsson Duffield → Albin Skoglund
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Kristófer Dagur Arnarsson → Lúkas Logi Heimisson
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Patrick Pedersen → Jónatan Ingi Jónsson
8th Substitution
79'
78'
Event
Nicklas Røjkjær 
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
77'
Event
Prince Amoako Junior
Penalty awarded
Event
Hördur Ingi Gunnarsson → Birkir Heimisson
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Ingimar Torbjörnsson Stöle → Dagur Orri Gardarson
5th Substitution
67'
67'
Event
Nicklas Røjkjær  → Stephen Acquah
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Prince Amoako Junior → Villum Berthelsen
2nd Substitution
53'
Event
Mark Brink → Malte Heyde
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
30'
Event
Villum Berthelsen
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Match ends with a score of 0-2.
89
Attempt Attempt
Markus Nakkim takes a left-footed shot but misses.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
87
Attempt Attempt
Bjarni Mark Antonsson's header is saved.
87
Attempt Attempt
Myles Veldman takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
84
Update Update
Levy Nene comes on for Ibrahim Adel.
83
Update Update
Levy Nene comes on for Ibrahim Adel.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
81
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Patrick Pedersen comes on for Jonatan Ingi Jonsson.
79
Update Update
Bjarni Mark Antonsson is on, and Albin Skoglund is off.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
78
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Nicklas Rojkjaer takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
77
Update Update
VAR decision results in a penalty awarded to Prince Amoako Junior.
77
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Nicklas Rojkjaer scores, making it 0-2.
74
Attempt Attempt
Hjalte Rasmussen takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
73
Attempt Attempt
Runar Norheim takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
71
Attempt Attempt
Nicklas Rojkjaer takes a right-footed shot but misses.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
67
Update Update
Hordur Ingi Gunnarsson is on, and Birkir Heimisson is off.
67
Update Update
Ingimar Torbjornsson Stole comes on for Dagur Gardarson.
67
Update Update
Nicklas Rojkjaer comes on for Stephen Acquah.
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
63
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Adel takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
54
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Logi Heimisson takes a left-footed shot but misses.
53
Update Update
On comes Mark Brink, off goes Malte Heyde.
51
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Adel takes a left-footed shot but misses.
49
Attempt Attempt
Hjalte Rasmussen takes a left-footed shot but misses.
48
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Adel takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
46
Attempt Attempt
Hjalte Rasmussen takes a left-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Hjalte Rasmussen takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Adel takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Adel takes a right-footed shot but misses the target.
45
Attempt Attempt
Hjalte Rasmussen takes a left-footed shot but misses.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
32
Attempt Attempt
Runar Norheim takes a right-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Hjalte Rasmussen's left-footed shot is saved.
30
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot from Villum Berthelsen with his left foot results in a goal.
30
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Tryggvi Hrafn Haraldsson with his left foot, but it is saved.
30
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
25
Attempt Attempt
Hjalte Rasmussen's right-footed shot is blocked.
24
Attempt Attempt
Hjalte Rasmussen takes a left-footed shot but misses.
13
Attempt Attempt
Malte Heyde takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
10
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Stephen Acquah Head Shot Missed
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Attempt Attempt
Juho Lahteenmaki takes a left-footed shot but misses.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Gergo Bogar.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Valur 0-2 Nordsjælland. Structural assessment: Nordsjælland exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.