Sabah vs KuPS preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Bank Respublika Arena Tue, 21 Jul - 4:00 PM
Champions League
SabahSABA
1 0
KuPSKUPS
Full Time Tue, 21 Jul 4:00 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Veljko Simic - 45+1'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Sabah hosted KuPS in the first leg of their two-legged tie and claimed a narrow 1-0 victory. The home side opened the scoring in the first half and maintained their advantage through the second period without further goals. Sabah controlled possession with 64 percent of the ball while KuPS held 36 percent. No red cards were shown to either side during the contest. The stronger team according to pre-match indicators delivered the expected outcome on the scoreboard. The halftime score stood at 1-0 and remained unchanged at full time. This result gives Sabah a slight advantage heading into the return fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sabah recorded a minimal structural deviation of 4.3 percent from pre-match indicators.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match team profiles.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed because expected goals data were unavailable.
  • Market alignment: The outcome aligned with market expectations as the stronger team won.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were not provided for either side in the dataset.
  • Event impact: The first-half goal proved decisive in securing the 1-0 final score.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so disciplinary events created no match distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
?. Kuźma
?. Kuźma
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
J. Winkler
J. Winkler
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
P. Podbielski
P. Podbielski
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Szczerbowicz
M. Szczerbowicz
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Sabah V. Dambrauskas
V. Dambrauskas
VS
KuPS M. Nuutinen
M. Nuutinen
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.5
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
The New Saints Rank: 63 W
The New Saints Rank: 63 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vardar Rank: L
Vardar Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sabah
95.69%
Draw
3.68%
Away KuPS
0.63%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sabah
+0.88%
Draw
-0.88%
KuPS
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
20
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sabah
KuPS
Power Score
50
20
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sabah — Opponent-weighted form score
KuPS — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sabah KuPS

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sabah

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

KuPS

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sabah ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy KuPS
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.22
17.22
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.22
29.22
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sabah +1.02 Efficiency Index
vs
KuPS -1.02 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sabah
KuPS
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sabah ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy KuPS
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sabah KuPS
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sabah KuPS
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sabah
KuPS
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sabah
vs
KuPS
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sabah KuPS
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sabah 0.11
KuPS 0.05
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sabah KuPS
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sabah 0.00
KuPS 0.01
Sabah
KuPS
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SABA had peak pressure around 93'.
  • SABA started the game with stronger pressure.
SABA Pressure KUPS Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SABA reached the top pressure at 93' (64.36).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-2-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 21, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Bank Respublika Arena
Capacity
13000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Łukasz Kuźma
Jacub Winkler
P. Podbielski
Marcin Szczerbowicz

Statistics

Possession
SABA
59%
KUPS
41%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
13 Shots 4
114 Dangerous attacks 64
64 Possession 36
5 Corners 0
15 Free kicks 17
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

2 Substitutions 5
12 Throwins 16

Attacking

117 Attacks 93

Defensive

2 Saves 10

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
9 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Łukasz Kuźma

Starting XI ▼

92
Stas Pokatilov
Stas Pokatilov (C) Goalkeeper
6.5
3
Steve Solvet
Steve Solvet Defender
6.5
5
Rahman Dashdamirov
Rahman Dashdamirov Defender
6.5
27
Tymoteusz Puchacz
Tymoteusz Puchacz Defender
6.5
80
Akim Zedadka
Akim Zedadka Defender
6.5
7
Umarali Rakhmonaliev
Umarali Rakhmonaliev Midfielder
6.5
10
Aleksey Isayev
Aleksey Isayev Midfielder
6.5
99
Orphé Mbina
Orphé Mbina
Attacker66'
6.5
11
Kaheem Parris
Kaheem Parris Midfielder
6.45
34
Xander Severina
Xander Severina
Midfielder66'
6.5
13
Ivan Lepinjica
Ivan Lepinjica Midfielder
6.61
21
Veljko Simic
Veljko Simic Midfielder
6.69
20
Joy-Lance Mickels
Joy-Lance Mickels Attacker
6.5
Referee : Łukasz Kuźma

Starting XI ▼

1
Johannes Kreidl
Johannes Kreidl Goalkeeper
6.12
4
Kasim Adams
Kasim Adams Defender
6.26
24
Bob Nii Armah
Bob Nii Armah Defender
6.26
21
Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba
Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba
Midfielder61'
6.5
25
Clinton Antwi
Clinton Antwi Defender
6.26
33
Taneli Hämäläinen
Taneli Hämäläinen
Defender68'
6.5
28
Brahima Magassa
Brahima Magassa Defender
6.26
29
Akseli Puukko
Akseli Puukko Defender
6.26
8
Petteri Pennanen
Petteri Pennanen (C) Midfielder
6.37
10
Valentín Gasc
Valentín Gasc Midfielder
6.37
13
Niilo Kujasalo
Niilo Kujasalo
Midfielder82'
6.5
16
Tommi Jyry
Tommi Jyry Midfielder
6.33
9
Gustav Engvall
Gustav Engvall Attacker
6.46
22
Saikou Touray
Saikou Touray
Midfielder46'
6.5
20
Piotr Parzyszek
Piotr Parzyszek Attacker
6.46
11
Jaime Moreno
Jaime Moreno
Attacker61'
6.46

Events

2ND-HALF
82'
Event
Niilo Kujasalo → Valentín Gasc
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Jaime Moreno
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
68'
Event
Taneli Hämäläinen → Clinton Antwi
6th Substitution
Event
Orphé Mbina → Aleksey Isayev
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Xander Severina → Kaheem Parris
5th Substitution
66'
61'
Event
Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba → Bob Nii Armah
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Jaime Moreno → Piotr Parzyszek
3rd Substitution
Event
Kaheem Parris
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
49'
47'
Event
Tommi Jyry
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
46'
Event
Saikou Touray → Gustav Engvall
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Veljko Simic
Field Goal / 1st Goal
45+1'
Event
Umarali Rakhmonaliev
Foul / Goal Disallowed
33'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
82
Substitution Substitution
Niilo Kujasalo is substituted off for Valentin Gasc.
77
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jaime Moreno receives a yellow card.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
68
Substitution Substitution
Taneli Hamalainen is substituted on for Clinton Antwi.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Orphe Mbina comes on for Aleksey Isaev.
66
Update Update
Xander Severina comes on for Kaheem Parris.
61
Update Update
On Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba, off Bob Nii Armah.
61
Substitution Substitution
Jaime Moreno is substituted for Piotr Parzyszek.
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kaheem Parris receives a yellow card.
47
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tommi Jyry receives a yellow card.
46
Update Update
Saikou Touray comes on for Gustav Engvall.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Veljko Simic scores to make it 1-0.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
33
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Umarali Rakhmonaliev scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Veljko Simic.
32
GOAL! GOAL! Important
VAR decision: Goal disallowed due to a foul by Umarali Rakhmonaliev.
32
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Lukasz Kuzma.

CONCLUSION

Sabah secured a controlled 1-0 win over KuPS in the opening leg by converting an early opportunity and managing the game thereafter. Their 64 percent possession share reflected sustained territorial dominance while KuPS struggled to create consistent threats. The absence of red cards allowed both teams to maintain full complements throughout the ninety minutes. With expected goals data unavailable the performance evaluation relies primarily on the observed scoreline and possession metrics. Sabah now carries a narrow aggregate lead into the second leg where KuPS will seek to overturn the deficit on home soil. Overall the result matched the pre-match assessment of team strength without notable deviations.