Hibernian vs Skendija 79 preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Easter Road Stadium Today - 7:00 PM
Europa Conference League
Hibernian HIB
2 1
Skendija 79 SHK
Full Time Today 7:00 PM
3rd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Owen Elding - 74'
Goal
|
Goal
Marko Gjorgjievski - 76'

CONTEXT

Hibernian hosted Skendija 79 in the opening leg of their two-legged encounter and claimed a 2-1 victory after a scoreless opening period. The home side controlled 57 percent of possession while the visitors held 43 percent yet could not prevent the late turnaround. Skendija entered as the stronger side on paper but Hibernian produced a significant deviation to take the lead in the tie. Both teams created opportunities without registered expected goals figures available for deeper comparison. The second half brought the decisive goals that shifted momentum firmly toward the hosts. No dismissals occurred to alter the flow of play. Hibernian now carry a narrow advantage into the return fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hibernian produced a significant deviation from expectations to win the match.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with observed performance levels.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable to determine alignment.
  • Market alignment: The final result stayed aligned with market projections.
  • xG expectations: No xG values were recorded to establish match expectations.
  • Event impact: The 2-1 scoreline gives Hibernian an edge after leg one.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards left match dynamics undistorted.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Antoniou
M. Antoniou
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
P. Georghiou
P. Georghiou
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
E. Komodromos
E. Komodromos
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
I. Christodoulou
I. Christodoulou
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Hibernian D. Gray
D. Gray
VS
Skendija 79 E. Memushi
E. Memushi
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.5
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Malisheva Rank: 56 W
Malisheva Rank: 54 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bravo Rank: 67 W
Bravo Rank: 68 L
Europa FC Rank: W
Europa FC Rank: W
Samsunspor Rank: 77 L
Samsunspor Rank: 77 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hibernian
65.66%
Draw
22.07%
Away Skendija 79
12.26%

Movement

Changes since opening
Hibernian
-31.33%
Draw
+19.7%
Skendija 79
+11.62%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
28.34
29.26
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hibernian
Skendija 79
Power Score
28.34
29.26
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hibernian — Opponent-weighted form score
Skendija 79 — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hibernian Skendija 79

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hibernian

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Skendija 79

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hibernian ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Skendija 79
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hibernian Skendija 79
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hibernian Skendija 79
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Hibernian
Skendija 79
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Hibernian
vs
Skendija 79
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Hibernian Skendija 79
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Hibernian 0.00
Skendija 79 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hibernian Skendija 79
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Hibernian 0.00
Skendija 79 0.00
Hibernian
Skendija 79
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • HIB had peak pressure around 20'.
  • HIB started the game with stronger pressure.
  • Both teams' pressure dropped after the 30th minute.
HIB Pressure SHK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: HIB reached the top pressure at 20' (60.11).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
F. Ramani
North Macedonia
30 F. Ramani
A. Zejnullai
Substitution
Albania
17 (C) A. Zejnullai
A. Meljichi
North Macedonia
26 A. Meljichi
J. Manev
North Macedonia
55 J. Manev
A. Trumci
Albania
2 A. Trumci
D. Islami
Kosovo
5 D. Islami
R. de Freitas Silva
Brazil
8 R. de Freitas Silva
A. Kryeziu
Substitution
Kosovo
11 A. Kryeziu
E. Krasniqi
Kosovo
10 E. Krasniqi
F. Tamba
Senegal
29 F. Tamba
F. Ndzengue Moubeti
Substitution
Gabon
9 F. Ndzengue Moubeti

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 06, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Easter Road Stadium
Capacity
20421
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Menelaos Antoniou
Pavlos Georghiou
Eraklis Komodromos
Ioannis Christodoulou

Statistics

Possession
HIB
59%
SHK
41%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
10 Shots 2
73 Dangerous attacks 36
57 Possession 43
4 Corners 3
12 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

1 Goal Kicks 0
5 Substitutions 4
16 Throwins 13

Attacking

108 Attacks 82

Discipline

12 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Menelaos Antoniou

Starting XI ▼

1
Raphael Sallinger
Raphael Sallinger Goalkeeper
5
Warren O'Hora
Warren O'Hora Defender
6
Jason Kerr
Jason Kerr Defender
21
Jordan Obita
Jordan Obita Defender
3
Adam Mayor
Adam Mayor Midfielder
23
Callum Wright
Callum Wright
Midfielder59'
8
Josh Mulligan
Josh Mulligan Midfielder
47
Azeem Abdullah
Azeem Abdullah
Midfielder74'
14
Miguel Chaiwa
Miguel Chaiwa Midfielder
32
Josh Campbell
Josh Campbell
Midfielder90+2'
25
Felix Passlack
Felix Passlack Midfielder
7
Owen Elding
Owen Elding Attacker
9
Nathan Lowe
Nathan Lowe Attacker
18
Thibault Klidjé
Thibault Klidjé
Attacker90+1'
10
Martin Boyle
Martin Boyle (C) Attacker
22
Ante Suto
Ante Suto
Attacker59'
Referee : Menelaos Antoniou

Starting XI ▼

30
Ferat Ramani
Ferat Ramani Goalkeeper
2
Aleksander Trumci
Aleksander Trumci Defender
26
Anes Meljichi
Anes Meljichi Defender
55
Jovan Manev
Jovan Manev Defender
5
Drilon Islami
Drilon Islami Midfielder
8
Rafa
Rafa Midfielder
10
Endrit Krasniqi
Endrit Krasniqi Midfielder
11
Almir Kryeziu
Almir Kryeziu Midfielder
19
Vane Krstevski
Vane Krstevski
Attacker63'
17
Arbin Zejnullai
Arbin Zejnullai (C) Midfielder
77
Florent Ramadani
Florent Ramadani
Midfielder90+3'
9
Fahd Ndzengue
Fahd Ndzengue Attacker
99
Marko Gjorgjievski
Marko Gjorgjievski
Attacker73'
29
Fabrice Tamba
Fabrice Tamba Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Florent Ramadani → Arbin Zejnullai
9th Substitution
90+3'
Event
Vane Krstevski
5th Yellowcard
Event
Josh Campbell → Miguel Chaiwa
8th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Thibault Klidjé → Nathan Lowe
7th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Warren O'Hora
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
90'
81'
Event
Mevlan Murati
4th Yellowcard
76'
Event
Marko Gjorgjievski
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
Event
Owen Elding
Field Goal / 1st Goal
74'
Event
Azeem Abdullah → Josh Mulligan
6th Substitution
74'
73'
Event
Marko Gjorgjievski → Fahd Ndzengue
5th Substitution
70'
Event
Drilon Islami
3rd Yellowcard
Event
Miguel Chaiwa
2nd Yellowcard
63'
63'
Event
Vane Krstevski → Almir Kryeziu
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Mevlan Murati → Endrit Krasniqi
4th Substitution
Event
Ante Suto → Martin Boyle
1st Substitution
59'
Event
Callum Wright → Adam Mayor
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Owen Elding
1st Yellowcard
56'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Florent Ramadani comes on for Arbin Zejnulai.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
90
Update Update
Josh Campbell is on, and Miguel Chaiwa is off.
90
Update Update
Thibault Klidje comes on for Nathan Lowe.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Warren O'Hora scores, making it 2-1.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-1.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Mevlan Murati.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
74
Substitution Substitution
Azeem Abdulai is substituted for Josh Mulligan.
73
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
73
Update Update
Marko Gjorgjievski comes on for Fahd Richard Ndzengue Moubeti.
70
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Drilon Islami receives a yellow card.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
63
Update Update
On comes Vane Krstevski, off goes Almir Kryeziu.
63
Update Update
Mevlan Murati comes on for Endrit Krasniqi.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
59
Update Update
Callum Wright comes on for Adam Mayor.
59
Update Update
Ante Suto replaces Martin Boyle.
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Menelaos Antoniou.

CONCLUSION

Hibernian overcame the stronger-rated opponent through second-half precision and secured a valuable 2-1 margin at home. The even halftime score of 0-0 gave way to improved structure that limited Skendija 79 despite their possession share. Without expected goals metrics the performance stands on observed control and timely finishing. The significant deviation by the hosts aligns with the market view yet underscores their ability to exceed perceived strength gaps. With no cards issued the contest remained balanced throughout. Hibernian now hold the upper hand heading into the second leg where defensive organization will prove critical to protecting the aggregate lead.