Jablonec vs Rīgas FS preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Stadion Střelnice
Europa Conference League
JablonecJAB
2 0
Rīgas FSRFS
Full Time
3rd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Jablonec hosted Rigas FS in the first leg of their two-legged tie and secured a 2-0 victory. The home side took the lead before halftime with the score at 1-0 and added a second goal after the break to seal the win. Rigas FS held a slight edge in possession at 54 percent compared to Jablonec's 46 percent yet failed to convert opportunities into goals. No red cards were shown to either team during the contest. The stronger pre-match side Rigas FS was unable to overcome the deficit on the night. Jablonec's result positions them favorably ahead of the return fixture. The minimal deviation observed aligned with the eventual outcome.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Jablonec produced a minimal 2.7 percent deviation from expectations in securing the win.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiency remained in line with pre-match projections throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable so alignment could not be evaluated.
  • Market alignment: The final result proved consistent with overall market alignment indicators.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals figures were recorded for either side in this fixture.
  • Event impact: Jablonec's 2-0 home win in leg one creates a strong platform for the return match.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were issued leaving both teams at full strength for the duration.
  • Market: Jablonec 51.4% (Δ-45.9%) | Draw 27.5% (Δ+25.6%) | Rīgas FS 21.1% (Δ+20.3%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
N. Verboomen
N. Verboomen
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
M. Hillaert
M. Hillaert
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Toeback
M. Toeback
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Vergoote
J. Vergoote
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Jablonec L. Kozel
L. Kozel
VS
Rīgas FS V. Morozs
V. Morozs
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.5
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Varaždin Rank: 70 W
Varaždin Rank: 69 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vestri Rank: D
Vestri Rank: W
Glentoran Rank: 52 W
Glentoran Rank: 54 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Jablonec
51.42%
Draw
27.52%
Away Rīgas FS
21.06%

Movement

Changes since opening
Jablonec
-45.9%
Draw
+25.61%
Rīgas FS
+20.29%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
30
43.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Jablonec
Rīgas FS
Power Score
30
43.33
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Jablonec — Opponent-weighted form score
Rīgas FS — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Jablonec Rīgas FS

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Jablonec

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rīgas FS

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Jablonec ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rīgas FS
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Jablonec Rīgas FS
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Jablonec Rīgas FS
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Jablonec
Rīgas FS
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Jablonec
vs
Rīgas FS
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Jablonec Rīgas FS
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Jablonec 0.00
Rīgas FS 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Jablonec Rīgas FS
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Jablonec 0.00
Rīgas FS 0.00
Jablonec
Rīgas FS
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RFS had peak pressure around 88'.
  • JAB started the game with stronger pressure.
JAB Pressure RFS Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RFS reached the top pressure at 88' (83.20).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-1-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Stadion Střelnice
Capacity
6280
Attendance
3911
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Nathan Verboomen
Mathias Hillaert
Maarten Toeback
Jasper Vergoote

Statistics

Possession
JAB
49%
RFS
51%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Shots 4
44 Dangerous attacks 54
46 Possession 54
2 Corners 6
15 Free kicks 12

Match Overview

84 Ball Safe 83
2 Goal Kicks 2
11 Goal Attempts 4
5 Substitutions 3
25 Throwins 21

Attacking

107 Attacks 122

Discipline

3 Offsides 2
10 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Nathan Verboomen

Starting XI ▼

1
Jan Hanus
Jan Hanus Goalkeeper
6.09
4
Nemanja Tekijaski
Nemanja Tekijaski Defender
6.28
15
Dusan Pavlovic
Dusan Pavlovic Defender
6.69
18
Martin Cedidla
Martin Cedidla Defender
6.28
20
Jiri Slama
Jiri Slama Defender
6.56
6
Nelson Okeke
Nelson Okeke Midfielder
6.34
10
Jan Suchan
Jan Suchan
Midfielder79'
7
Vakhtang Chanturishvili
Vakhtang Chanturishvili Midfielder
6.31
16
Hugo Ahl
Hugo Ahl
Midfielder86'
6.37
8
Filip Zorvan
Filip Zorvan Midfielder
6.39
25
Sebastian Nebyla
Sebastian Nebyla
Midfielder62'
6.44
13
Richard Sedlacek
Richard Sedlacek Midfielder
6.34
21
Matej Polidar
Matej Polidar Midfielder
6.5
19
Jan Chramosta
Jan Chramosta
Attacker86'
6.46
44
Lamin Jawo
Lamin Jawo Attacker
6.47
9
Antonin Rusek
Antonin Rusek
Attacker62'
6.45
Referee : Nathan Verboomen

Starting XI ▼

16
Jevgenijs Nerugals
Jevgenijs Nerugals Goalkeeper
6.22
6
Aleksandar Filipovic
Aleksandar Filipovic Defender
6.32
23
Herdi Prenga
Herdi Prenga Defender
6.34
43
Ziga Lipuscek
Ziga Lipuscek Defender
6.32
8
Lasha Odisharia
Lasha Odisharia Midfielder
6.52
19
Alfa Baldé
Alfa Baldé
Midfielder89'
6.48
10
Janis Ikaunieks
Janis Ikaunieks Midfielder
6.66
18
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs Midfielder
6.43
26
Stefan Panic
Stefan Panic Midfielder
6.5
49
Martins Kigurs
Martins Kigurs Midfielder
6.56
9
Duje Korač
Duje Korač
Attacker46'
81
Strahinja Rakic
Strahinja Rakic Midfielder
6.45
66
Modou Saidy
Modou Saidy
Midfielder76'
6.53
15
Rostand Ndjiki
Rostand Ndjiki Attacker
6.59

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Alfa Baldé → Lasha Odisharia
8th Substitution
Event
Hugo Ahl → Vakhtang Chanturishvili
6th Substitution
86'
Event
Jan Chramosta → Matej Polidar
7th Substitution
86'
Event
Jan Suchan → Nelson Okeke
5th Substitution
79'
76'
Event
Modou Saidy → Strahinja Rakic
4th Substitution
Event
Sebastian Nebyla → Filip Zorvan
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Antonin Rusek → Lamin Jawo
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Matej Polidar
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
53'
46'
Event
Duje Korač → Martins Kigurs
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Vakhtang Chanturishvili
Field Goal / 1st Goal
18'

Match Commentary

89
Substitution Substitution
On Hugo Ahl is substituted for Lasha Odisharia.
86
Substitution Substitution
Jan Chramosta is substituted for Matej Polidar.
86
Substitution Substitution
Hugo Ahl is substituted for Vakhtang Chanturishvili.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
79
Substitution Substitution
Jan Suchan is substituted off for Nelson Okeke.
76
Update Update
Modou Saidy comes on for Strahinja Rakic.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
62
Substitution Substitution
Sebastian Nebyla is substituted off for Filip Zorvan.
62
Update Update
Antonin Rusek comes on for Lamin Jawo.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
53
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Matej Polidar scores to make it 2-0, assisted by Martin Cedidla.
46
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Matej Polidar scores, making it 2-0.
46
Update Update
Duje Korac is on, and Martins Kigurs is off.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
18
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Vakhtang Chanturishvili scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Filip Zorvan.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Nathan Verboomen.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Jablonec 2-0 Rīgas FS. Structural assessment: Jablonec exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.