PAOK vs Anderlecht preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa League, Europe
Stadio Toumbas Thu, 6 Aug - 5:45 PM
Europa League
PAOKPKT
0 1
AnderlechtADL
Full Time Thu, 6 Aug 5:45 PM
3rd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
|
Goal

CONTEXT

PAOK hosted Anderlecht in the first leg of their knockout tie and fell to a 0-1 defeat. Anderlecht took the lead before halftime and held firm despite PAOK controlling 65 percent of possession and generating 2.15 expected goals compared to the visitors 0.75. The home side created numerous opportunities but could not convert them into goals. Anderlecht defended compactly and struck on the counter to secure the narrow advantage. No red cards were shown and the match remained eleven versus eleven throughout. The result leaves PAOK needing to overturn the deficit in the return leg while Anderlecht will look to protect their lead. The performance highlighted PAOK's dominance in open play yet underscored their inability to find the net on the day.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: PAOK 0-1 Anderlecht. Anderlecht showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with underlying performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: The final result was not consistent with the expected goals balance.
  • Market alignment: The outcome did not align with pre-match positioning indicators.
  • xG expectations: PAOK generated 2.15 xG while Anderlecht recorded 0.75 xG.
  • Event impact: The match proceeded without major disruptive incidents.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued and the game experienced no related distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Martínez Munuera
J. Martínez Munuera
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
D. Barbero Sevilla
D. Barbero Sevilla
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Martínez Munuera
M. Martínez Munuera
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Busquets Ferrer
M. Busquets Ferrer
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
PAOK A. Lisci
A. Lisci
VS
Anderlecht V. Clara Santos Mota Fernandes
V. Clara Santos Mota Fernandes
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 69 W
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 68 W
Celta de Vigo Rank: 83 L
Celta de Vigo Rank: 83 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hammarby Rank: 70 W
Hammarby Rank: 69 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home PAOK
58.97%
Draw
23.83%
Away Anderlecht
17.21%

Movement

Changes since opening
PAOK
+58.34%
Draw
+19.27%
Anderlecht
-77.6%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
81.73
77.06
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
PAOK
Anderlecht
Power Score
81.73
77.06
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
76
135

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
PAOK — Opponent-weighted form score
Anderlecht — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) PAOK Anderlecht

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

PAOK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Anderlecht

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

PAOK
vs
Anderlecht
Created Set-piece attacking threat
PAOK Anderlecht
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
40%
20%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.86 vs -0.15
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
PAOK Anderlecht
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
20%
40%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.15 vs -0.86
PAOK
Anderlecht
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
PAOK
vs
Anderlecht
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
PAOK Anderlecht
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
PAOK 0.00
Anderlecht 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
PAOK Anderlecht
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
PAOK 0.00
Anderlecht 0.00
PAOK
Anderlecht
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • PKT had peak pressure around 84'.
  • PKT started the game with stronger pressure.
PKT Pressure ADL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: PKT reached the top pressure at 84' (99.99).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 06, 2026, 05:45 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Stadio Toumbas
Capacity
28703
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Juan Martínez Munuera
Diego Barbero Sevilla
Miguel Martínez Munuera
Mateo Busquets Ferrer

Statistics

Possession
PKT
63%
ADL
37%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 2
9 Shots 1
88 Dangerous attacks 17
65 Possession 35
5 Corners 1
21 Free kicks 17
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

5 Goal Kicks 13
7 Substitutions 5
18 Throwins 7
11 Dribble Attempts 4
11 Successful Dribbles 4
65 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36

Attacking

128 Attacks 71

Possession

30 Long Passes 21
543 Passes 315
86 Successful Passes Percentage 80
8 Key Passes 4

Defensive

1 Saves 2
13 Tackles 10
6 Interceptions 16
52 Duels Won 34

Build-up

34 Total Crosses 2

Discipline

3 Offsides 3
15 Fouls 19

Lineup

Referee : Juan Martínez Munuera

Starting XI ▼

1
Jiri Pavlenka
Jiri Pavlenka Goalkeeper
3
Jonjoe Kenny
Jonjoe Kenny Defender
4
Bojan Golubovic
Bojan Golubovic Defender
6
Aritz Elustondo
Aritz Elustondo
Defender46'
5
Giannis Michailidis
Giannis Michailidis Defender
18
Jonathan Gómez
Jonathan Gómez Defender
21
Abdul Rahman Baba
Abdul Rahman Baba
Defender63'
7
Baptiste Santamaria
Baptiste Santamaria Midfielder
32
Greg Taylor
Greg Taylor
Defender63'
11
Taison
Taison Midfielder
19
Alexander Jeremejeff
Alexander Jeremejeff
Attacker71'
14
Andrija Zivkovic
Andrija Zivkovic Midfielder
20
Christos Zafeiris
Christos Zafeiris Midfielder
65
Giannis Konstantelias
Giannis Konstantelias Midfielder
56
Anestis Mythou
Anestis Mythou Attacker
10
Dimitrios Pelkas
Dimitrios Pelkas
Midfielder83'
Referee : Juan Martínez Munuera

Starting XI ▼

26
Colin Coosemans
Colin Coosemans Goalkeeper
4
Giulian Biancone
Giulian Biancone Defender
5
Moussa Ndiaye
Moussa Ndiaye Defender
27
Léo Pétrot
Léo Pétrot Defender
55
Marco Kana
Marco Kana Defender
79
Ali Maamar
Ali Maamar Defender
18
Lukas Ambros
Lukas Ambros Midfielder
13
Nathan Saliba
Nathan Saliba
Midfielder71'
24
Enric Llansana
Enric Llansana Midfielder
49
Jayden Onia Seke
Jayden Onia Seke Midfielder
11
Oliver Antman
Oliver Antman
Midfielder57'
9
Mihajlo Cvetkovic
Mihajlo Cvetkovic Attacker
83
Tristan Degreef
Tristan Degreef
Midfielder71'
14
Danylo Sikan
Danylo Sikan Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Danylo Sikan
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Aritz Elustondo
Unsportsmanlike conduct / 4th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Dimitrios Pelkas → Anestis Mythou
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Alexander Jeremejeff → Taison
6th Substitution
71'
71'
Event
Tristan Degreef → Mihajlo Cvetkovic
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Nathan Saliba → Lukas Ambros
7th Substitution
Event
Abdul Rahman Baba → Jonathan Gómez
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Greg Taylor → Baptiste Santamaria
4th Substitution
63'
58'
Event
Enric Llansana
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
57'
Event
Oliver Antman → Jayden Onia Seke
2nd Substitution
56'
Event
Moussa Ndiaye
Roughing / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Aritz Elustondo → Bojan Golubovic
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Bojan Golubovic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
38'
Event
Anestis Mythou
Video review / Goal Disallowed
36'
Event
Giannis Michailidis
1st Missed Penalty
35'
1'
Event
Mihajlo Cvetkovic
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Update Update
Match ends with a score of 0-1.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Danylo Sikan receives a yellow card.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Aritz Elustondo.
84
Update Update
Offside.
83
Substitution Substitution
Dimitrios Pelkas is substituted off for Anestis Mythou.
81
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Alexander Jeremejeff comes on for Barcellos Freda Taison.
71
Update Update
Tristan Degreef is on, and Mihajlo Cvetkovic is off.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Nathan-Dylan Saliba comes on for Lukas Ambros.
67
Update Update
Offside.
63
Substitution Substitution
Greg Taylor is substituted for Santamaria Baptiste.
63
Update Update
Abdul Rahman Baba is on, and Jonathan Gomez is off.
62
Update Update
Offside.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Enric Llansana receives a yellow card.
57
Substitution Substitution
Oliver Antman is substituted off for Jayden Onia Seke.
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Moussa Ndiaye receives a yellow card.
46
Update Update
Aritz Elustondo comes on for Pantelis Hatzidiakos.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
38
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Pantelis Hatzidiakos.
36
GOAL! GOAL! Important
VAR decision results in a disallowed goal for Anestis Mythou.
36
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Anestis Mythou scores, making it 1-1.
35
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved by Giannis Michailidis.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
20
Update Update
Offside.
8
Update Update
Offside.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mihajlo Cvetkovic scores, making it 1-0.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Juan Martinez Munuera.

CONCLUSION

PAOK will need to show greater clinical finishing in the second leg after dominating territory and chance creation yet failing to score. Anderlecht demonstrated defensive resilience and capitalized on their limited opportunities to claim a valuable away win. The 0-1 scoreline at halftime remained unchanged despite PAOK's second-half pressure. With the aggregate now favoring the visitors the return fixture promises a stern test for the home side. Both teams must adjust their approaches to account for the narrow margin and the knockout context. The first leg illustrated how possession and expected goals do not always translate directly into results on the pitch.