Levski Sofia vs Kairat preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Vivacom Arena - Georgi Asparuhov Tue, 4 Aug - 5:30 PM
Champions League
Levski SofiaLEV
1 0
KairatKAI
Full Time Tue, 4 Aug 5:30 PM
3rd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Serginho - 90+2'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Levski Sofia hosted Kairat in the first leg of their knockout tie and secured a narrow 1-0 victory. The match remained level at halftime with both sides unable to break the deadlock during the opening forty-five minutes. Levski controlled the majority of possession at seventy-one percent while Kairat held twenty-nine percent yet failed to convert opportunities. The home side produced the only goal of the contest after the interval to claim the win. Pre-match assessments had identified Kairat as the stronger side yet Levski delivered a significant deviation to emerge victorious. No red cards were shown throughout the ninety minutes leaving the contest unaffected by dismissals. The outcome sets up an intriguing second leg with Levski holding a slender advantage.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Levski Sofia produced a significant deviation by defeating the stronger-rated Kairat.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with observed performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: xG values were unavailable preventing any alignment evaluation.
  • Market alignment: The final result proved aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be quantified due to missing data.
  • Event impact: The solitary second-half goal delivered the decisive 1-0 margin.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards created no distortion to match flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Rumšas
D. Rumšas
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
A. Radiušas
A. Radiušas
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Sužiedėlis
D. Sužiedėlis
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
R. Valikonis
R. Valikonis
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Levski Sofia J. Velázquez Santiago
J. Velázquez Santiago
VS
Kairat R. Urazbakhtin
R. Urazbakhtin
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.25
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Universitatea Craiova Rank: 74 D
Universitatea Craiova Rank: 75 W
Borac Banja Luka Rank: 65 W
Borac Banja Luka Rank: 66 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.25 i
Last 6 Opponents
Omonia Nicosia Rank: W
Omonia Nicosia Rank: L
Sutjeska Rank: W
Sutjeska Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Levski Sofia
58.12%
Draw
26.79%
Away Kairat
15.1%

Movement

Changes since opening
Levski Sofia
-37.93%
Draw
+23.48%
Kairat
+14.46%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
36.67
36.94
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Levski Sofia
Kairat
Power Score
36.67
36.94
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Levski Sofia — Opponent-weighted form score
Kairat — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Levski Sofia Kairat

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Levski Sofia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Kairat

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Levski Sofia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kairat
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.30
14.83
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
14.83
24.30
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Levski Sofia +0.80 Efficiency Index
vs
Kairat -0.80 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Levski Sofia
Kairat
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Levski Sofia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kairat
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Levski Sofia Kairat
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Levski Sofia Kairat
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Levski Sofia
Kairat
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Levski Sofia
vs
Kairat
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Levski Sofia Kairat
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Levski Sofia 0.09
Kairat 0.02
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Levski Sofia Kairat
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Levski Sofia 0.00
Kairat 0.01
Levski Sofia
Kairat
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LEV had peak pressure around 28'.
  • KAI started the game with stronger pressure.
LEV Pressure KAI Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LEV reached the top pressure at 28' (64.81).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 04, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Vivacom Arena - Georgi Asparuhov
Capacity
17688
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Donatas Rumšas
Aleksandras Radiušas
Dovydas Sužiedėlis
Robertas Valikonis

Statistics

Possession
LEV
71%
KAI
29%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
7 Shots 1
125 Dangerous attacks 66
71 Possession 29
7 Corners 1
6 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

4 Substitutions 5
19 Throwins 8

Attacking

181 Attacks 61

Defensive

0 Saves 2

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
9 Fouls 4

Lineup

Referee : Donatas Rumšas

Starting XI ▼

92
Svetoslav Vutsov
Svetoslav Vutsov Goalkeeper
6.5
20
Álex Centelles
Álex Centelles Defender
6.5
21
Aldair
Aldair Defender
6.5
31
Nikola Serafimov
Nikola Serafimov Defender
6.5
22
Mazire Soula
Mazire Soula
Midfielder46'
6.61
50
Kristian Dimitrov
Kristian Dimitrov (C) Defender
6.5
11
Armstrong Oko-Flex
Armstrong Oko-Flex Midfielder
6.5
10
Asen Mitkov
Asen Mitkov
Midfielder64'
6.5
17
Everton Bala
Everton Bala Midfielder
6.5
28
Steven Stoyanchov
Steven Stoyanchov
Attacker90'
18
Gasper Trdin
Gasper Trdin Midfielder
6.5
19
Mehdi Moubarik
Mehdi Moubarik Midfielder
6.5
35
Serginho
Serginho Midfielder
6.65
7
Reinaldo
Reinaldo Attacker
6.5
9
Juan Perea
Juan Perea
Attacker78'
6.5
Referee : Donatas Rumšas

Starting XI ▼

1
Temirlan Anarbekov
Temirlan Anarbekov Goalkeeper
6.12
3
Luís Mata
Luís Mata Defender
6.26
14
Aleksandr Martynovich
Aleksandr Martynovich (C) Defender
6.26
24
Aleksandr Mrynskiy
Aleksandr Mrynskiy Defender
6.26
44
Lucas Áfrico
Lucas Áfrico Defender
6.26
8
Olzhas Baybek
Olzhas Baybek Midfielder
6.5
4
Damir Kasabulat
Damir Kasabulat
Midfielder61'
6.37
13
Jaakko Oksanen
Jaakko Oksanen Midfielder
6.37
19
Oiva Jukkola
Oiva Jukkola Midfielder
6.5
15
Mansur Birkurmanov
Mansur Birkurmanov
Attacker77'
6.46
22
Gustavo Pinto Mendonça
Gustavo Pinto Mendonça Midfielder
6.5
25
Aleksandr Shirobokov
Aleksandr Shirobokov
Defender86'
9
Edmilson
Edmilson Attacker
6.5
81
Ismail Bekbolat
Ismail Bekbolat
Attacker60'
6.46
28
Marc Gual
Marc Gual Attacker
6.5
20
Erkin Tapalov
Erkin Tapalov
Defender77'
6.26

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Serginho
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Serginho
Field Goal / 1st Goal
90+2'
Event
Steven Stoyanchov → Everton Bala
9th Substitution
90'
86'
Event
Aleksandr Shirobokov → Gustavo Pinto Mendonça
8th Substitution
Event
Juan Perea → Reinaldo
7th Substitution
78'
77'
Event
Mansur Birkurmanov → Oiva Jukkola
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Erkin Tapalov → Marc Gual
6th Substitution
Event
Asen Mitkov  → Armstrong Oko-Flex
4th Substitution
64'
61'
Event
Damir Kasabulat → Olzhas Baybek
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Ismail Bekbolat → Edmilson
2nd Substitution
Event
Mazire Soula  → Nikola Serafimov
1st Substitution
46'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Sérgio Miguel Lobo Araújo.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
86
Update Update
Aleksandr Shirobokov comes on for Gustavo Mendonca.
78
Update Update
Perea comes on for Reinaldo.
77
Substitution Substitution
Mansur Birkurmanov is substituted off for Oiva Jukkola.
77
Update Update
Perea comes on for Reinaldo.
64
Substitution Substitution
Asen Mitkov is substituted for Armstrong Okoflex.
62
Substitution Substitution
Asen Mitkov is substituted for Armstrong Okoflex.
61
Update Update
Damir Kasabulat is on, and Olzhas Baibek is off.
60
Update Update
Ismail Bekbolat replaces Edmilson de Paula Santos Filho.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Substitution Substitution
Mazire Soula is substituted for Nikola Serafimov.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
25
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
24
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Levski Sofia 1-0 Kairat. Structural assessment: Levski Sofia exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.