Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium Wed, 5 Aug - 6:00 PM
Champions League
FenerbahçeFEN
2 0
Sturm GrazSTU
Full Time Wed, 5 Aug 6:00 PM
3rd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Talisca - 9'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Fenerbahce welcomed Sturm Graz for the opening leg of their knockout tie and delivered a commanding 2-0 win. Both goals arrived before the interval, giving the hosts a solid advantage to defend in the return match. With 72 percent possession Fenerbahce dictated the tempo while restricting Sturm Graz to just 28 percent. The home side created 1.52 expected goals compared with 0.32 for the visitors, underlining their superiority in chance creation. No red cards disrupted proceedings and the outcome remained consistent with the underlying metrics. Fenerbahce now carry a two-goal cushion into the second leg where they will look to maintain control and advance.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: A minimal 2.7 percent deviation was recorded for Fenerbahce.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: The final result aligned with the expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: The outcome proved aligned with pre-match indicators.
  • xG expectations: Fenerbahce posted 1.52 expected goals against 0.32 for Sturm Graz.
  • Event impact: Two first-half goals produced the 2-0 scoreline at halftime.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred to alter the match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
C. Kavanagh
C. Kavanagh
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
I. Hussin
I. Hussin
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
N. Davies
N. Davies
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
R. Jones
R. Jones
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Fenerbahçe İ. Kartal
İ. Kartal
VS
Sturm Graz F. Ingolitsch
F. Ingolitsch
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 70 D
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 69 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hearts Rank: 75 W
Hearts Rank: 76 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Fenerbahçe
97.32%
Draw
1.91%
Away Sturm Graz
0.77%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
87.22
75.53
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fenerbahçe
Sturm Graz
Power Score
87.22
75.53
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
34
161

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fenerbahçe — Opponent-weighted form score
Sturm Graz — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fenerbahçe Sturm Graz

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Fenerbahçe

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sturm Graz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Fenerbahçe
vs
Sturm Graz
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Fenerbahçe Sturm Graz
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
24%
83%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.37 vs -0.27
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Fenerbahçe Sturm Graz
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
83%
24%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.27 vs -0.37
Fenerbahçe
Sturm Graz
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Fenerbahçe
vs
Sturm Graz
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Fenerbahçe Sturm Graz
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Fenerbahçe 0.00
Sturm Graz 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Fenerbahçe Sturm Graz
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Fenerbahçe 0.00
Sturm Graz 0.00
Fenerbahçe
Sturm Graz
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FEN had peak pressure around 74'.
  • FEN started the game with stronger pressure.
FEN Pressure STU Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FEN reached the top pressure at 74' (98.49).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 05, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium
Capacity
50530
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Chris Kavanagh
Ian Hussin
Neil Davies
Robert Jones

Statistics

Possession
FEN
68%
STU
32%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 0
2 Shots 1
44 Dangerous attacks 33
72 Possession 28
4 Corners 2
19 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

8 Goal Kicks 5
5 Substitutions 5
24 Throwins 22
2 Assists 0
16 Dribble Attempts 19
7 Successful Dribbles 6
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 32

Attacking

115 Attacks 66
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

55 Long Passes 40
583 Passes 222
525 Successful Passes 164
90 Successful Passes Percentage 74
12 Key Passes 2
37 Successful Long Passes 18
67 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45

Defensive

1 Saves 8
30 Tackles 19
7 Interceptions 6
65 Duels Won 43

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 12
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

4 Offsides 0
10 Fouls 19

Lineup

Referee : Chris Kavanagh

Starting XI ▼

34
Mert Günok
Mert Günok Goalkeeper
6.96
15
Nathan Aké
Nathan Aké Defender
7.8
24
Jayden Oosterwolde
Jayden Oosterwolde Defender
6.7
3
Archie Brown
Archie Brown
Defender30'
6.91
27
Nélson Semedo
Nélson Semedo Defender
6.95
18
Mert Müldür
Mert Müldür
Defender85'
6.44
37
Milan Škriniar
Milan Škriniar (C) Defender
8.26
6
Mattéo Guendouzi
Mattéo Guendouzi Midfielder
7.29
9
Kerem Aktürkoğlu
Kerem Aktürkoğlu Midfielder
7.34
70
Oğuz Aydın
Oğuz Aydın
Attacker85'
6.94
10
Marco Asensio
Marco Asensio Midfielder
7.55
17
İrfan Can Kahveci
İrfan Can Kahveci
Midfielder69'
6.4
11
Mason Greenwood
Mason Greenwood Midfielder
7.45
7
Fred
Fred
Midfielder69'
6.59
91
N'Golo Kanté
N'Golo Kanté Midfielder
6.98
94
Talisca
Talisca Attacker
7.93
Referee : Chris Kavanagh

Starting XI ▼

53
Daniil Khudyakov
Daniil Khudyakov Goalkeeper
8.06
2
Jeyland Mitchell
Jeyland Mitchell Defender
6.64
5
Albert Vallci
Albert Vallci Defender
6.33
18
Emran Soglo
Emran Soglo Defender
6.43
28
Jürgen Heil
Jürgen Heil Defender
6.47
4
Jon Gorenc Stankovic
Jon Gorenc Stankovic (C) Midfielder
7.16
19
Simon Seidl
Simon Seidl Midfielder
6.33
15
Gizo Mamageishvili
Gizo Mamageishvili
Midfielder64'
6.7
39
Luca Weinhandl
Luca Weinhandl Midfielder
6.36
80
Ryan Fosso
Ryan Fosso
Midfielder64'
6.49
43
Jacob Peter Hödl
Jacob Peter Hödl Midfielder
6.08
26
Belmin Beganovic
Belmin Beganovic
Attacker87'
17
Szymon Wlodarczyk
Szymon Wlodarczyk Attacker
6.26
11
Axel Kayombo
Axel Kayombo
Attacker46'
6.06
20
Seedy Jatta
Seedy Jatta Attacker
5.88
44
Nelson Weiper
Nelson Weiper
Attacker64'
6.68

Events

2ND-HALF
87'
Event
Belmin Beganovic → Jacob Peter Hödl
10th Substitution
Event
Oğuz Aydın → Kerem Aktürkoğlu
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Mert Müldür → Nélson Semedo
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Fred → Mason Greenwood
6th Substitution
69'
Event
İrfan Can Kahveci → Marco Asensio
7th Substitution
69'
65'
Event
Axel Kayombo
Simulation / 3rd Yellowcard
64'
Event
Ryan Fosso → Luca Weinhandl
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Gizo Mamageishvili → Simon Seidl
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Nelson Weiper → Seedy Jatta
5th Substitution
58'
Event
Jürgen Heil
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Axel Kayombo → Szymon Wlodarczyk
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Mason Greenwood
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
45'
Event
Archie Brown → Jayden Oosterwolde
1st Substitution
30'
21'
Event
Jon Gorenc Stankovic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Talisca
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
9'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Irfan Can Kahveci takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Anderson Souza Conceicao Talisca takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
87
Attempt Attempt
Oguz Aydin takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
87
Update Update
Belmin Beganovic is on, and Jacob Hodl is off.
85
Update Update
Mert Muldur comes on for Nelson Cabral Semedo.
85
Update Update
Oguz Aydin comes on for Kerem Aktürkoğlu.
79
Update Update
Offside.
77
Update Update
Offside.
77
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
71
Attempt Attempt
Nelson Weiper takes a right-footed shot but misses.
71
Attempt Attempt
Nelson Weiper takes a right-footed shot but misses.
69
Update Update
Frederico Rodrigues Santos comes on for Mason Greenwood.
69
Update Update
Frederico Rodrigues Santos comes on for Mason Greenwood.
68
Update Update
Irfan Can Kahveci is on, and Marco Asensio Willemsen is off.
68
Attempt Attempt
Anderson Souza Conceicao Talisca takes a left-footed shot but misses.
68
Attempt Attempt
Nathan Ake attempted a header but missed the shot.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
67
Attempt Attempt
Anderson Souza Conceicao Talisca takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Axel Kayombo.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Axel Kayombo receives a yellow card.
64
Update Update
On Nelson Weiper, off Seedy Jatta.
64
Update Update
On comes Ryan Fosso, off goes Luca Weinhandl.
60
Update Update
Gizo Mamageishvili is on, and Simon Seidl is off.
60
Attempt Attempt
Anderson Souza Conceicao Talisca takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
60
Attempt Attempt
Kerem Aktürkoğlu takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
60
Update Update
Offside.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Jurgen Heil.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Substitution Substitution
Axel Kayombo is substituted for Szymon Wlodarczyk.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Mason Greenwood scores with a left-footed shot.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mason Greenwood scores to make it 2-0, assisted by Marco Asensio Willemsen.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-0.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
38
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Nelson Cabral Semedo with his right foot is blocked.
38
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
35
Attempt Attempt
Simon Seidl takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
30
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Archie Brown comes on for Jayden Oosterwolde.
23
Update Update
Offside.
23
Attempt Attempt
Mason Greenwood takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
20
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Jon Gorenc Stankovic.
17
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Jon Gorenc Stankovic.
16
Update Update
Offside.
9
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Anderson Souza Conceicao Talisca with his left foot results in a goal.
9
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Anderson Souza Conceicao Talisca scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Kerem Aktürkoğlu.
7
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Chris Kavanagh.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Fenerbahçe 2-0 Sturm Graz. Structural assessment: Fenerbahçe exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.