Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Crvena Zvezda preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Haladás Sportkomplexum
Champions League
Hapoel Be'er ShevaHBS
1 0
Crvena ZvezdaCRV
Full Time
3rd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Zahi Ahmed - 38'
Goal
|
Matan Baltaxa 58' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

Hapoel Be'er Sheva claimed a narrow 1-0 win against Crvena Zvezda in the opening leg of their encounter. The sole goal came in the first half, giving the home team an advantage at the break. Despite being reduced to ten men following a red card, Hapoel Be'er Sheva defended resolutely to secure the victory. Crvena Zvezda enjoyed greater possession at 58 percent but could not convert their dominance into goals. The stronger side on paper suffered an unexpected defeat in this fixture. The result underscores the unpredictable nature of such matches where determination can overcome statistical expectations. Overall, the performance demonstrated effective organization from the winners who limited clear opportunities for their opponents. The match proceeded without further goals in the second period as the home side focused on maintaining their lead under challenging circumstances.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Hapoel Be'er Sheva 1-0 Crvena Zvezda. Hapoel Be'er Sheva showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with the final result of the game.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment data was unavailable for detailed assessment in this match.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment did not hold as the winner contradicted pre-match indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be verified without available metrics from the contest.
  • Event impact: The red card event impacted the home team's strategy but did not prevent victory.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion affected the second half dynamics of the encounter.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Gil Manzano
J. Gil Manzano
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
G. Porras Ayuso
G. Porras Ayuso
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Martínez Nicolás
J. Martínez Nicolás
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
F. Hernández Maeso
F. Hernández Maeso
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Hapoel Be'er Sheva R. Kozuch
R. Kozuch
VS
Crvena Zvezda D. Stankovic
D. Stankovic
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Víkingur Reykjavík Rank: W
Víkingur Reykjavík Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Larne Rank: 57 W
Larne Rank: 57 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hapoel Be'er Sheva
18.89%
Draw
24.35%
Away Crvena Zvezda
56.76%

Movement

Changes since opening
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
-74.85%
Draw
+18.73%
Crvena Zvezda
+56.13%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
30
40
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
Crvena Zvezda
Power Score
30
40
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hapoel Be'er Sheva — Opponent-weighted form score
Crvena Zvezda — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hapoel Be'er Sheva Crvena Zvezda

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hapoel Be'er Sheva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Crvena Zvezda

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hapoel Be'er Sheva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Crvena Zvezda
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
11.43
25.60
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.60
11.43
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hapoel Be'er Sheva -0.55 Efficiency Index
vs
Crvena Zvezda +0.55 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
Crvena Zvezda
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hapoel Be'er Sheva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Crvena Zvezda
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hapoel Be'er Sheva Crvena Zvezda
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hapoel Be'er Sheva Crvena Zvezda
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
Crvena Zvezda
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
vs
Crvena Zvezda
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Hapoel Be'er Sheva Crvena Zvezda
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Hapoel Be'er Sheva 0.08
Crvena Zvezda 0.14
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hapoel Be'er Sheva Crvena Zvezda
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Hapoel Be'er Sheva 0.00
Crvena Zvezda 0.03
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
Crvena Zvezda
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CRV had peak pressure around 100'.
  • CRV started the game with stronger pressure.
HBS Pressure CRV Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CRV reached the top pressure at 100' (75.37).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Haladás Sportkomplexum
Capacity
8940
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jesús Gil Manzano
Guadalupe Porras Ayuso
Javier Martínez Nicolás
Francisco José Hernández Maeso

Statistics

Possession
HBS
40%
CRV
60%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
6 Shots 9
36 Dangerous attacks 77
42 Possession 58
3 Corners 8
11 Free kicks 20
4 Yellow Cards 5
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
10 Throwins 26

Attacking

64 Attacks 85

Defensive

6 Saves 1

Discipline

4 Offsides 2
16 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Jesús Gil Manzano

Starting XI ▼

1
Ofir Marciano
Ofir Marciano Goalkeeper
6.5
2
Guy Mizrahi
Guy Mizrahi Defender
6.5
5
Pedro Amador
Pedro Amador
Defender63'
6.5
3
Matan Baltaxa
Matan Baltaxa Defender
5.71
4
Miguel Vítor
Miguel Vítor (C) Defender
6.5
12
Itay Rotman
Itay Rotman Defender
6.49
7
Eliel Peretz
Eliel Peretz Midfielder
6.45
8
Hamode Kanaan
Hamode Kanaan
Attacker88'
25
Lucas Ventura
Lucas Ventura Midfielder
6.5
28
Niv Yehoshua
Niv Yehoshua Midfielder
6.5
44
Djibril Diop
Djibril Diop
Defender63'
6.5
9
Zahi Ahmed
Zahi Ahmed Attacker
6.86
20
Javon East
Javon East Attacker
6.5
19
Amit Ohana
Amit Ohana
Attacker83'
6.5
66
Igor Zlatanovic
Igor Zlatanovic Attacker
6.5
45
Muhammad Abu Rumi
Muhammad Abu Rumi
Attacker46'
6.5
Referee : Jesús Gil Manzano

Starting XI ▼

1
Matheus
Matheus Goalkeeper
6.12
23
Nair Tiknizyan
Nair Tiknizyan Defender
6.25
25
Strahinja Erakovic
Strahinja Erakovic Defender
6.25
32
Derrick Luckassen
Derrick Luckassen Defender
6.25
66
Young-woo Seol
Young-woo Seol Defender
6.26
4
Mirko Ivanic
Mirko Ivanic (C) Midfielder
6.37
14
Osman Bukari
Osman Bukari Midfielder
6.37
10
Cristian Chambian
Cristian Chambian
Midfielder73'
6.5
15
Mohammed Abu Fani
Mohammed Abu Fani Midfielder
6.33
70
Muhammed Cham
Muhammed Cham
Midfielder46'
6.45
22
Vasilije Kostov
Vasilije Kostov Midfielder
6.37
7
Marko Arnautovic
Marko Arnautovic
Attacker46'
6.5
33
Rade Krunic
Rade Krunic Midfielder
6.37
17
Bruno Duarte
Bruno Duarte Attacker
6.46
75
Loizos Loizou
Loizos Loizou
Midfielder73'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Hamode Kanaan → Eliel Peretz
10th Substitution
88'
85'
Event
Muhammed Cham
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Nair Tiknizyan
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Amit Ohana → Javon East
9th Substitution
83'
80'
Event
Derrick Luckassen
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
73'
Event
Cristian Chambian → Osman Bukari
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Loizos Loizou → Bruno Duarte
8th Substitution
Event
Eliel Peretz
Offside / Goal Disallowed
71'
Event
Itay Rotman
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
64'
Event
Pedro Amador → Guy Mizrahi
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Djibril Diop → Niv Yehoshua
6th Substitution
63'
Event
Matan Baltaxa
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
58'
Event
Eliel Peretz
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
58'
Event
Matan Baltaxa
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
58'
Event
Muhammad Abu Rumi → Igor Zlatanovic
3rd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Marko Arnautovic → Vasilije Kostov
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Muhammed Cham → Mohammed Abu Fani
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
4th Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
Strahinja Erakovic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Zahi Ahmed
Field Goal / 1st Goal
38'
15'
Event
Mohammed Abu Fani
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Mohammad Kanaan comes on for Eliel Peretz.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Nair Tiknizyan.
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Muhammed Saracevic.
83
Substitution Substitution
Amit Ohana is substituted for Javon Romario East.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Derrick Luckassen receives a yellow card.
78
Red Card Red Card Important
Derrick Luckassen receives a red card.
73
Update Update
Loizos Loizou is on, and Bruno Duarte da Silva is off.
73
Update Update
Aleksandar Katai comes on for Osman Bukari.
72
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-0.
71
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-0.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
64
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Itay Rotman.
63
Substitution Substitution
Pedro Miguel Santos Amador is substituted off for Guy Mizrahi.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Itay Rotman.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Eliel Peretz receives a yellow card.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Second yellow card shown to Matan Baltaxa.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Matan Baltaxa.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Substitution Substitution
Marko Arnautovic is substituted off for Vasilije Kostov.
46
Update Update
On Muhammed Saracevic, off Mohammed Abo Fani.
46
Update Update
Timi Max Elsnik comes on for Mirko Ivanic.
46
Update Update
Mohammed Abu Rumi comes on for Igor Zlatanovic.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Strahinja Erakovic receives a yellow card.
44
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Strahinja Erakovic receives a yellow card.
38
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
32
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Hapoel Be'er Sheva 1-0 Crvena Zvezda. Structural assessment: Hapoel Be'er Sheva exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.