Salzburg vs Pafos FC preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa League, Europe
Red Bull Arena Today - 5:00 PM
Europa League
Salzburg RBS
1 0
Pafos FC PAF
Full Time Today 5:00 PM
3rd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Haris Tabakovic - 88'
Goal
|
|
Second yellow card Ken Sema 90+3'

CONTEXT

In the opening leg of their two-match tie, Salzburg defeated Pafos FC by a score of 1-0. The first half concluded without goals, leaving both teams level at the interval. Salzburg maintained 59 percent possession while Pafos FC held 41 percent. The home team's expected goals totaled 1.58, substantially higher than the 0.37 recorded by their opponents. Pafos FC entered as the stronger side according to available metrics, yet the result went against that assessment. A red card for the visiting team occurred during the second half, contributing to adjustments in play. The outcome remained consistent with the expected goals differential of 1.21. This performance highlighted Salzburg's ability to capitalize on their opportunities despite the pre-match designation of the opponent.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Salzburg recorded minimal deviation from pre-match expectations in the 1-0 result.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency levels stayed in line with patterns for both Salzburg and Pafos FC.
  • xG alignment: The 1-0 score aligned with Salzburg xG of 1.58 and Pafos FC xG of 0.37.
  • Market alignment: The outcome proved consistent with market alignment indicators for the match.
  • xG expectations: Salzburg met xG expectations by converting their 1.58 value into the winning goal.
  • Event impact: A second half red card to Pafos FC served as the primary event altering dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: The away red card created distortion in Pafos FC performance after the interval.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Sylwestrzak
D. Sylwestrzak
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
P. Sokolnicki
P. Sokolnicki
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Karasewicz
A. Karasewicz
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
?. Kuźma
?. Kuźma
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Salzburg D. Röhl
D. Röhl
VS
Pafos FC R. Andrade Silva Sá Pinto
R. Andrade Silva Sá Pinto
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.5
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hajduk Split Rank: 75 W
Hajduk Split Rank: 74 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Salzburg
96.99%
Draw
2.37%
Away Pafos FC
0.64%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
19.52
30
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Salzburg
Pafos FC
Power Score
19.52
30
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Salzburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Pafos FC — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Salzburg Pafos FC

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Salzburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Pafos FC

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Salzburg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pafos FC
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
19.60
16.49
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.49
19.60
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Salzburg +0.16 Efficiency Index
vs
Pafos FC -0.16 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Salzburg
Pafos FC
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Salzburg
vs
Pafos FC
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Salzburg Pafos FC
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
22%
12%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.35 vs -0.04
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Salzburg Pafos FC
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
12%
22%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.04 vs -0.35
Salzburg
Pafos FC
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Salzburg
vs
Pafos FC
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Salzburg Pafos FC
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Salzburg 0.23
Pafos FC 0.10
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Salzburg Pafos FC
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Salzburg 0.00
Pafos FC 0.00
Salzburg
Pafos FC
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RBS had peak pressure around 14'.
  • RBS started the game with stronger pressure.
RBS Pressure PAF Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RBS reached the top pressure at 14' (80.33).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
C. Zawieschitzky
Austria
52 C. Zawieschitzky
N. Veratschnig
Austria
18 (C) N. Veratschnig
K. Boma
France
44 K. Boma
V. Zabransky
Austria
47 V. Zabransky
D. Schmid
Switzerland
31 D. Schmid
S. Diabaté
Substitution
Mali
5 S. Diabaté
A. Bari
Gambia
32 A. Bari
E. Baidoo
Substitution
20 E. Baidoo
G. Diakité
Substitution
30 G. Diakité
D. Redzic
Substitution
Hungary
23 D. Redzic
Y. Vertessen
Substitution
Belgium
11 Y. Vertessen
R. Majecki
Poland
99 R. Majecki
N. Ioannou
Cyprus
14 N. Ioannou
D. Moreira Marinho
Brazil
4 D. Moreira Marinho
D. Goldar Gómez
Spain
5 D. Goldar Gómez
G. Teixeira Aragão
Brazil
20 G. Teixeira Aragão
G. Gonçalves Pereira Rodrigues
Portugal
6 G. Gonçalves Pereira Rodrigues
I. Šunjić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
26 I. Šunjić
A. Soares Carvalho Brito
Substitution
Portugal
50 A. Soares Carvalho Brito
D. Quina
Substitution
Portugal
8 D. Quina
V. Dragomir
Substitution
Romania
30 V. Dragomir
L. da Silva Genesio
Brazil
18 L. da Silva Genesio

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 06, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Red Bull Arena
Capacity
30188
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Damian Sylwestrzak
Pawel Sokolnicki
Adam Karasewicz
Łukasz Kuźma

Statistics

Possession
RBS
57%
PAF
43%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 6
67 Dangerous attacks 51
59 Possession 41
13 Corners 0
11 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

0 Goal Kicks 1
5 Substitutions 4
26 Throwins 20
1 Hit Woodwork 0
9 Dribble Attempts 3
9 Successful Dribbles 3
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25

Attacking

106 Attacks 77

Possession

17 Long Passes 23
459 Passes 322
84 Successful Passes Percentage 79
9 Key Passes 5

Defensive

1 Saves 1
7 Tackles 15
7 Interceptions 11
43 Duels Won 48

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 9

Discipline

1 Offsides 3
13 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Damian Sylwestrzak

Starting XI ▼

52
Christian Zawieschitzky
Christian Zawieschitzky Goalkeeper
6.82
18
Nikolas Veratschnig
Nikolas Veratschnig (C) Defender
6.85
31
Dominik Schmid
Dominik Schmid Defender
6.78
44
Kévin Boma
Kévin Boma Defender
6.53
47
Valentin Zabransky
Valentin Zabransky Defender
6.6
5
Soumaïla Diabaté
Soumaïla Diabaté Midfielder
6.9
15
Bartosz Mazurek
Bartosz Mazurek
Midfielder58'
23
Damir Redzic
Damir Redzic Midfielder
6.76
8
Sota Kitano
Sota Kitano
Midfielder65'
32
Abubakr Barry
Abubakr Barry Midfielder
6.79
11
Yorbe Vertessen
Yorbe Vertessen Attacker
7.26
19
Karim Konaté
Karim Konaté
Attacker65'
20
Edmund Baidoo
Edmund Baidoo Attacker
6.76
9
Haris Tabakovic
Haris Tabakovic
Attacker70'
30
Gaoussou Diakité
Gaoussou Diakité Attacker
6.7
43
Enrique Aguilar
Enrique Aguilar
Attacker70'
Referee : Damian Sylwestrzak

Starting XI ▼

99
Radoslaw Majecki
Radoslaw Majecki Goalkeeper
7.03
4
David Luiz
David Luiz Defender
6.99
5
David Goldar
David Goldar Defender
6.59
14
Nikolas Ioannou
Nikolas Ioannou Defender
6.61
6
Guga
Guga Midfielder
6.7
8
Domingos Quina
Domingos Quina Midfielder
6.46
12
Ken Sema
Ken Sema
Midfielder42'
6.5
26
Ivan Šunjić
Ivan Šunjić Midfielder
6.61
30
Vlad Dragomir
Vlad Dragomir Midfielder
6.52
88
Pêpê
Pêpê
Midfielder89'
50
Alexandre Brito
Alexandre Brito Midfielder
6.64
47
Murad Mammadov
Murad Mammadov
Attacker80'
18
Lelê
Lelê Attacker
6.47
20
Biel
Biel Attacker
7.3

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Ken Sema
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
89'
Event
Pêpê → Vlad Dragomir
8th Substitution
Event
Haris Tabakovic
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
88'
82'
Event
Ivan Šunjić
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
80'
Event
Murad Mammadov → Alexandre Brito
7th Substitution
Event
Abubakr Barry
Tripping / 3rd Yellowcard
75'
Event
Enrique Aguilar → Gaoussou Diakité
5th Substitution
70'
Event
Haris Tabakovic → Edmund Baidoo
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Sota Kitano → Damir Redzic
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Karim Konaté → Yorbe Vertessen
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Bartosz Mazurek → Soumaïla Diabaté
2nd Substitution
58'
46'
Event
Ken Sema
Tripping / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
42'
Event
Ken Sema → Domingos Quina
1st Substitution
36'
Event
David Luiz
Holding / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Second yellow card shown to Ken Sema.
88
Update Update
Pedro Filipe Figueiredo Rodrigues Pepe is on, and Vlad Dragomir is off.
88
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Haris Tabakovic scores to make it 1-0.
82
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Ivan Sunjic.
80
Update Update
Murad Mammadov is on, and Alexandre Brito is off.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Abubakar Barry.
70
Update Update
Haris Tabakovic is on, and Edmund Baidoo is off.
70
Update Update
Enrique Aguilar replaces Gaoussou Diakite.
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Karim Konate replaces Yorbe Vertessen.
64
Update Update
On for Sota Kitano, off goes Damir Redzic.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
58
Update Update
Bartosz Mazurek comes on for Soumaila Diabate.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ken Sema receives a yellow card.
43
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
43
Update Update
Ken Sema replaces Domingos Quina.
36
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for David Luiz Moreira Marinho.
24
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
13
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Damian Sylwestrzak.

CONCLUSION

The 1-0 result in favor of Salzburg leaves the tie finely balanced heading into the second leg. Pafos FC must navigate the challenge of playing with one fewer player from the prior encounter while seeking to overturn the deficit. Analysis of expected goals shows clear alignment with the final scoreline, as Salzburg's 1.58 xG outperformed the visitors' 0.37. Possession advantages did not yield excessive scoring but proved sufficient for the win. The red card distortion played a role in the second half adjustments observed. Market alignment held true to the actual result without contradiction. Both teams exhibited efficiency levels that matched their respective performances on the day. This sets a platform for strategic planning in the upcoming match.