Benfica vs AGF preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa League, Europe
Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica
Europa League
BenficaSLB
3 1
AGFAGF
Full Time
Play-offs Leg 1 of 2
Rafa Silva - 2'
Vangelis Pavlidis - 45+2' (P)
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Benfica secured a 3-1 victory over AGF in the first leg of their knockout tie. The home side dominated from the outset, establishing a 3-1 halftime lead that remained unchanged through the second period. With 71 percent possession and an expected goals tally of 5.04 to 0.46, Benfica controlled proceedings throughout. AGF struggled to create meaningful opportunities and managed only 29 percent of the ball. The outcome aligned closely with underlying metrics, confirming Benfica as the stronger side on the night. No red cards were shown to either team, allowing the match to unfold without disciplinary interruptions. Benfica's clinical finishing in the opening half set the tone for a comfortable win that leaves them well positioned heading into the return leg.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Benfica recorded a significant 17.2 percent structural deviation in this fixture.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match projections for both sides.
  • xG alignment: The final result proved consistent with the underlying expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: The outcome aligned fully with market expectations for the stronger team.
  • xG expectations: Benfica posted 5.04 expected goals against AGF's 0.46.
  • Event impact: Benfica's 3-1 halftime lead shaped the remainder of the contest.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion to overall match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Guida
M. Guida
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.32
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
G. Peretti
G. Peretti
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
G. Perrotti
G. Perrotti
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
F. Maresca
F. Maresca
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Benfica M. Saraiva Da Silva
M. Saraiva Da Silva
VS
AGF J. Poulsen
J. Poulsen
1.75
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
1.75 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hearts Rank: 74 D
Hearts Rank: 75 W
St. Gallen Rank: 70 W
St. Gallen Rank: 69 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Benfica
82.83%
Draw
11.61%
Away AGF
5.56%

Movement

Changes since opening
Benfica
-14.3%
Draw
+9.71%
AGF
+4.6%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
88.12
71.27
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Benfica
AGF
Power Score
88.12
71.27
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
21
218

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Benfica — Opponent-weighted form score
AGF — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Benfica AGF

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Benfica

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

AGF

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Benfica ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AGF
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
50.21
14.31
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
14.31
50.21
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Benfica +2.23 Efficiency Index
vs
AGF -2.23 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Benfica
AGF
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Benfica
vs
AGF
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Benfica AGF
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
47%
44%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-1.37 vs -0.20
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Benfica AGF
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
44%
47%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.20 vs -1.37
Benfica
AGF
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Benfica
vs
AGF
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Benfica AGF
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Benfica 0.44
AGF 0.13
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Benfica AGF
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Benfica 0.04
AGF 0.04
Benfica
AGF
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SLB had peak pressure around 54'.
  • SLB started the game with stronger pressure.
SLB Pressure AGF Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SLB reached the top pressure at 54' (86.37).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-3-2
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa League, Europe · Play-offs · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica
Capacity
68100
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Marco Guida
Giorgio Peretti
Giuseppe Perrotti
Fabio Maresca

Statistics

Possession
SLB
67%
AGF
33%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
8 Big Chances Created 0
8 Shots 1
73 Dangerous attacks 23
71 Possession 29
11 Corners 1
17 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

89 Ball Safe 78
1 Penalties 0
3 Goal Kicks 11
17 Goal Attempts 2
5 Substitutions 5
22 Throwins 16
7 Dribble Attempts 9
7 Successful Dribbles 9
70 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45

Attacking

126 Attacks 67

Possession

32 Long Passes 15
669 Passes 278
91 Successful Passes Percentage 76
26 Key Passes 3

Defensive

0 Saves 6
14 Tackles 7
4 Interceptions 6
55 Duels Won 37

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 7

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
10 Fouls 17

Lineup

Referee : Marco Guida

Starting XI ▼

24
Samuel Soares
Samuel Soares Goalkeeper
6.41
2
Clément Lenglet
Clément Lenglet Defender
7.53
6
Alexander Bah
Alexander Bah Defender
6.71
26
Samuel Dahl
Samuel Dahl Defender
7.75
44
Tomás Araújo
Tomás Araújo (C) Defender
7.62
5
Enzo Barrenechea
Enzo Barrenechea Midfielder
7.28
10
Georgiy Sudakov
Georgiy Sudakov Midfielder
7.47
8
Fredrik Aursnes
Fredrik Aursnes
Midfielder84'
6.65
18
Leandro Barreiro
Leandro Barreiro Midfielder
7.32
20
Richard Ríos
Richard Ríos
Midfielder66'
6.91
25
Gianluca Prestianni
Gianluca Prestianni Midfielder
7.47
21
Andreas Schjelderup
Andreas Schjelderup
Midfielder72'
6.76
27
Rafa Silva
Rafa Silva Midfielder
7.72
13
Jakub Kamiński
Jakub Kamiński
Midfielder84'
6.34
14
Vangelis Pavlidis
Vangelis Pavlidis Attacker
7.54
22
Jhon Durán
Jhon Durán
Attacker72'
6.88
Referee : Marco Guida

Starting XI ▼

21
Mads Hedenstad
Mads Hedenstad Goalkeeper
7.94
19
Eric Kahl
Eric Kahl Defender
6.04
25
Colin Rösler
Colin Rösler Defender
6.67
29
Rasmus Carstensen
Rasmus Carstensen
Midfielder56'
6.27
44
Mouhammade Camara
Mouhammade Camara Defender
6.63
4
Magnus Knudsen
Magnus Knudsen Midfielder
6.73
16
Jens Jönsson
Jens Jönsson
Midfielder73'
6.74
8
Sebastian Jørgensen
Sebastian Jørgensen Midfielder
7.04
27
Stefen Tchamche
Stefen Tchamche
Attacker56'
6.42
26
Jacob Andersen
Jacob Andersen Midfielder
6.55
10
Kristian Arnstad
Kristian Arnstad (C) Attacker
6.98
28
James Bogere
James Bogere Attacker
6.52
23
Mikael Anderson
Mikael Anderson
Midfielder81'
6.43
31
Tobias Bech
Tobias Bech Attacker
6.34
39
Frederik Emmery
Frederik Emmery Attacker
6.52
11
Gift Links
Gift Links
Midfielder73'
6.4

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Fredrik Aursnes → Georgiy Sudakov
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Jakub Kamiński → Rafa Silva
10th Substitution
84'
83'
Event
Stefen Tchamche 
Tripping / 3rd Yellowcard
81'
Event
Mikael Anderson → James Bogere
8th Substitution
73'
Event
Jens Jönsson → Magnus Knudsen
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Gift Links → Frederik Emmery
7th Substitution
Event
Jhon Durán → Vangelis Pavlidis
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Andreas Schjelderup → Gianluca Prestianni
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Richard Ríos → Leandro Barreiro
3rd Substitution
66'
56'
Event
Rasmus Carstensen → Colin Rösler
1st Substitution
56'
Event
Stefen Tchamche  → Sebastian Jørgensen
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Vangelis Pavlidis
Penalty / 1st Penalty
45+2'
Event
Vangelis Pavlidis
Penalty awarded
45+1'
36'
Event
Sebastian Jørgensen
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Leandro Barreiro
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
31'
Event
Tomás Araújo
Holding / 2nd Yellowcard
24'
Event
Leandro Barreiro
Roughing / 1st Yellowcard
9'
Event
Rafa Silva
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
2'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
84
Update Update
Fredrik Aursnes comes on for Georgiy Sudakov.
84
Update Update
Jakub Kaminski comes on for Rafael Ferreira Silva.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Stefen Tchamche.
81
Update Update
Mikael Neville Anderson comes on for James Bogere.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
73
Update Update
On Jens Jonsson, off Magnus Knudsen.
73
Update Update
On Gift Links, off Frederik Emmery.
72
Substitution Substitution
Jhon Duran is substituted for Vangelis Pavlidis.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Andreas Schjelderup comes on for Gianluca Prestianni.
66
Update Update
On comes Richard Rios, off goes Leandro Barreiro Martins.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Stefen Tchamche comes on for Sebastian Jorgensen.
57
Update Update
Rasmus Carstensen replaces Colin Rosler.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
The first half ends with a score of 3-1.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Penalty - Vangelis Pavlidis 3-1
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
36
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sebastian Jorgensen scores to make it 2-1, assisted by Jacob Andersen.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
31
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Leandro Barreiro Martins scores, making it 2-0.
24
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tomas Araujo receives a yellow card.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
9
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Leandro Barreiro Martins receives a yellow card.
2
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Rafael Ferreira Silva scores, making it 1-0.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Marco Guida.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Benfica 3-1 AGF. Structural assessment: Benfica exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.