Universitatea Craiova vs Ararat-Armenia preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa League, Europe
Stadionul Ion Oblemenco (Craiova)
Europa League
Universitatea CraiovaUCR
1 – 1
Ararat-ArmeniaARAR2
Full Time
Play-offs Leg 1 of 2
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Universitatea Craiova hosted Ararat-Armenia in the first leg of a two-legged tie and the match concluded 1-1. Both sides scored once before the interval to leave the halftime score level at 1-1. Home side possession finished at 52 percent against 48 percent for the visitors. No red cards were shown to either team. The stronger side according to pre-match assessment was Universitatea Craiova yet the result was a draw. A significant deviation of 80.4 percent was recorded with Universitatea Craiova as the affected team. The outcome was not aligned with market expectations and efficiency remained in line with prior patterns. Aggregate data entering the second leg will be shaped by this even result.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: A significant deviation of 80.4 percent occurred with Universitatea Craiova as the affected team.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with established patterns for both sides.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed because expected goals data were unavailable.
  • Market alignment: The final outcome was not aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing expected goals figures.
  • Event impact: The 1-1 draw in leg one leaves the tie balanced for the return fixture.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued so match dynamics experienced no distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
N. Walsh
N. Walsh
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.32
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
F. Connor
F. Connor
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. McFarlane
D. McFarlane
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Robertson
D. Robertson
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Universitatea Craiova F. Amaral Rino Coelho
F. Amaral Rino Coelho
VS
Ararat-Armenia M. da Silva Cruz
M. da Silva Cruz
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
KuPS Rank: W
KuPS Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Universitatea Craiova
70.13%
Draw
19.58%
Away Ararat-Armenia
10.29%

Movement

Changes since opening
Universitatea Craiova
+59.46%
Draw
-64.41%
Ararat-Armenia
+4.95%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
34.44
30
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Universitatea Craiova
Ararat-Armenia
Power Score
34.44
30
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Universitatea Craiova — Opponent-weighted form score
Ararat-Armenia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Universitatea Craiova Ararat-Armenia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Universitatea Craiova

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Ararat-Armenia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Universitatea Craiova ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ararat-Armenia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.56
16.88
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.88
33.56
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Universitatea Craiova +1.04 Efficiency Index
vs
Ararat-Armenia -1.04 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Universitatea Craiova
Ararat-Armenia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Universitatea Craiova ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ararat-Armenia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Universitatea Craiova Ararat-Armenia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Universitatea Craiova Ararat-Armenia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Universitatea Craiova
Ararat-Armenia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Universitatea Craiova
vs
Ararat-Armenia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Universitatea Craiova Ararat-Armenia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Universitatea Craiova 0.15
Ararat-Armenia 0.14
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Universitatea Craiova Ararat-Armenia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Universitatea Craiova 0.02
Ararat-Armenia 0.01
Universitatea Craiova
Ararat-Armenia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ARAR2 had peak pressure around 23'.
  • UCR started the game with stronger pressure.
UCR Pressure ARAR2 Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ARAR2 reached the top pressure at 23' (49.27).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa League, Europe · Play-offs · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Stadionul Ion Oblemenco (Craiova)
Capacity
30983
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
N. Walsh
Francis Connor
Daniel McFarlane
Don Robertson

Statistics

Possession
UCR
57%
ARAR2
43%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
7 Shots 4
89 Dangerous attacks 42
52 Possession 48
8 Corners 4
8 Free kicks 17
4 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

81 Ball Safe 81
13 Goal Attempts 6
5 Substitutions 5
28 Throwins 22

Attacking

135 Attacks 102

Defensive

2 Saves 5

Discipline

3 Offsides 3
14 Fouls 5

Lineup

Referee : N. Walsh

Starting XI ▼

21
Laurențiu Popescu
Laurențiu Popescu Goalkeeper
6.12
3
Oleksandr Romanchuk
Oleksandr Romanchuk Defender
6.25
6
Vladimir Screciu
Vladimir Screciu (C) Defender
6.26
28
Adrian Rus
Adrian Rus Defender
6.41
5
Anzor Mekvabishvili
Anzor Mekvabishvili Midfielder
6.69
8
Tudor Băluță
Tudor Băluță
Midfielder85'
6.5
11
Nicușor Bancu
Nicușor Bancu Midfielder
7.02
17
Carlos Mora
Carlos Mora Midfielder
6.43
20
Alexandru Cicâldău
Alexandru Cicâldău Midfielder
6.54
23
Samuel Teles
Samuel Teles
Midfielder69'
6.5
30
David Matei
David Matei Midfielder
6.53
12
Monday Etim
Monday Etim
Attacker62'
6.46
9
Assad Al-Hamlawi
Assad Al-Hamlawi Attacker
6.46
7
Steven Nsimba
Steven Nsimba
Attacker62'
6.62
10
Ștefan Baiaram
Ștefan Baiaram Attacker
6.57
29
Luca Băsceanu
Luca Băsceanu
Midfielder85'
6.5
Referee : N. Walsh

Starting XI ▼

98
João Bravim
João Bravim Goalkeeper
6.12
2
Hugo Oliveira
Hugo Oliveira Defender
6.37
8
Balanta Jr.
Balanta Jr.
Midfielder75'
6.5
3
Jose Junior Bueno Defender
16
Edgar Grigoryan
Edgar Grigoryan Defender
6.26
43
Bruno Wilson
Bruno Wilson Defender
6.29
47
Alexandros Malis
Alexandros Malis Defender
6.92
11
Zidane Banjaqui
Zidane Banjaqui Midfielder
6.37
7
Zhirayr Shaghoyan
Zhirayr Shaghoyan
Midfielder80'
6.5
19
Karen Muradyan
Karen Muradyan Midfielder
6.37
17
Maxence Carlier
Maxence Carlier
Midfielder80'
6.5
70
Bernardo Dias
Bernardo Dias Midfielder
6.47
95
Carlos França
Carlos França
Midfielder69'
6.5
77
Artur Serobyan
Artur Serobyan Midfielder
6.37
20
Alwyn Tera
Alwyn Tera
Midfielder80'
6.5
91
Sandro Lima
Sandro Lima Attacker
6.73

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Tudor Băluță → Anzor Mekvabishvili
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Luca Băsceanu → Ștefan Baiaram
10th Substitution
85'
80'
Event
Maxence Carlier → Karen Muradyan
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Zhirayr Shaghoyan → Zidane Banjaqui
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Alwyn Tera → Artur Serobyan
8th Substitution
Event
Monday Etim
Roughing / 4th Yellowcard
78'
75'
Event
Balanta Jr. → Hugo Oliveira
5th Substitution
Event
Samuel Teles → Alexandru Cicâldău
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Adrian Rus
Roughing / 3rd Yellowcard
69'
69'
Event
Carlos França → Bernardo Dias
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Sandro Lima
Offside / Goal Disallowed
Event
Monday Etim → David Matei
1st Substitution
62'
Event
Steven Nsimba → Assad Al-Hamlawi
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Oleksandr Romanchuk
Roughing / 2nd Yellowcard
47'
1ST-HALF
Event
David Matei
Roughing / 1st Yellowcard
39'
Event
Nicușor Bancu 
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
33'
20'
Event
Alexandros Malis
Field Goal / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
85
Update Update
Luca Basceanu comes on for Stefan Baiaram.
85
Update Update
Cristian Baluta is on, and Anzor Mekvabishvili is off.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
82
Update Update
Zhirayr Shaghoyan comes on for Zidane Banjaqui.
80
Substitution Substitution
Alwyn Tera is substituted for Artur Serobyan.
80
Update Update
Maxence Carlier is on, and Karen Muradyan is off.
77
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Monday Etim receives a yellow card.
75
Update Update
Juan Balanta replaces Hugo Oliveira.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
69
Update Update
Samuel Teles Pereira Nunes Silva is on, and Alexandru Cicaldau is off.
69
Update Update
Carlos Franca is on, and Benny is off.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Adrian Rusu receives a yellow card.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
63
GOAL! GOAL! Important
VAR decision: Goal disallowed for offside against Sandro Cesar Cordovil de Lima.
63
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-2.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Steven Nsimba comes on for Assad Al Hamlawi.
62
Update Update
On Monday, Etim replaces Matei David.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
47
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Oleksandr Romanchuk.
43
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Matei David receives a yellow card.
37
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Matei David.
33
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nicusor Bancu scores, bringing the score to 1-1.
20
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Alexandros Malis scores, making it 0-1.
11
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Nick Walsh.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 result in the opening leg leaves both teams with work to do ahead of the return fixture. Universitatea Craiova held a slight possession edge yet could not convert that into a lead after the early exchange of goals. Ararat-Armenia defended solidly to secure the away point and will carry momentum into the second leg. Absence of red cards kept the contest at eleven versus eleven throughout and allowed both coaches to maintain planned structures. With efficiency patterns holding steady the second leg is likely to hinge on adjustments in the attacking third rather than wholesale tactical overhauls. The significant pre-match deviation did not translate into an altered final scoreline.