Panathinaikos vs CSKA 1948 Sofia preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis Wed, 5 Aug - 6:30 PM
Europa Conference League
PanathinaikosPAO
1 – 1
CSKA 1948 SofiaC1S
Full Time Wed, 5 Aug 6:30 PM
3rd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Goal
|
Goal
Georgi Rusev - 31'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Panathinaikos 1–1 CSKA 1948 Sofia. The match ended in a draw. Panathinaikos showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. xG finished Panathinaikos 1.1 – 1.2 CSKA 1948 Sofia. Possession was 69%–31%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Panathinaikos 1-1 CSKA 1948 Sofia. Panathinaikos showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Marchetti
M. Marchetti
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
K. Bahri
K. Bahri
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
V. Vecchi
V. Vecchi
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Sacchi
J. Sacchi
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Panathinaikos J. Neestrup Hansen
J. Neestrup Hansen
VS
CSKA 1948 Sofia A. Emilov Aleksandrov
A. Emilov Aleksandrov
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Paksi SE Rank: 63 D
Paksi SE Rank: 61 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Spartak Trnava Rank: 76 D
Spartak Trnava Rank: 76 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Panathinaikos
73.03%
Draw
18.26%
Away CSKA 1948 Sofia
8.71%

Movement

Changes since opening
Panathinaikos
+64.8%
Draw
-68.75%
CSKA 1948 Sofia
+3.95%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
78.32
63.08
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Panathinaikos
CSKA 1948 Sofia
Power Score
78.32
63.08
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
113
527

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Panathinaikos — Opponent-weighted form score
CSKA 1948 Sofia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Panathinaikos CSKA 1948 Sofia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Panathinaikos

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

CSKA 1948 Sofia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Panathinaikos
vs
CSKA 1948 Sofia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Panathinaikos CSKA 1948 Sofia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
3%
20%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.03 vs -0.24
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Panathinaikos CSKA 1948 Sofia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
20%
3%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.24 vs -0.03
Panathinaikos
CSKA 1948 Sofia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Panathinaikos
vs
CSKA 1948 Sofia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Panathinaikos CSKA 1948 Sofia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Panathinaikos 0.00
CSKA 1948 Sofia 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Panathinaikos CSKA 1948 Sofia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Panathinaikos 0.00
CSKA 1948 Sofia 0.00
Panathinaikos
CSKA 1948 Sofia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • C1S had peak pressure around 33'.
  • PAO started the game with stronger pressure.
PAO Pressure C1S Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: C1S reached the top pressure at 33' (100.00).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-1-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 05, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis
Capacity
69618
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Matteo Marchetti
Khaled Bahri
Valerio Vecchi
Juan Luca Sacchi

Statistics

Possession
PAO
65%
C1S
35%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 2
3 Shots 10
112 Dangerous attacks 40
69 Possession 31
8 Corners 7
11 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

12 Goal Kicks 4
5 Substitutions 2
21 Throwins 15
0 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Assists 1
14 Dribble Attempts 13
7 Successful Dribbles 8
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 62

Attacking

168 Attacks 82
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

32 Long Passes 65
637 Passes 279
567 Successful Passes 200
89 Successful Passes Percentage 72
12 Key Passes 16
19 Successful Long Passes 19
59 Successful Long Passes Percentage 29

Defensive

1 Saves 4
6 Tackles 18
10 Interceptions 10

Build-up

34 Total Crosses 17
5 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
10 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Matteo Marchetti

Starting XI ▼

1
Iñaki Peña
Iñaki Peña Goalkeeper
6.55
6
Stefan de Vrij
Stefan de Vrij (C) Defender
7.4
19
Triantafyllos Tsapras
Triantafyllos Tsapras Defender
6.83
3
Georgios Katris
Georgios Katris
Defender85'
6.41
55
Rick van Drongelen
Rick van Drongelen Defender
7.58
77
Georgios Kyriakopoulos
Georgios Kyriakopoulos Defender
6.7
4
Pedro Chirivella
Pedro Chirivella Midfielder
7.2
8
Adriano Jagusic
Adriano Jagusic Midfielder
7.84
18
Sotiris Kontouris
Sotiris Kontouris
Midfielder85'
6.39
10
Santino Andino
Santino Andino Midfielder
6.82
11
Anass Zaroury
Anass Zaroury
Attacker67'
6.69
22
Étienne Camara
Étienne Camara Midfielder
6.57
16
Adam Gnezda Cerin
Adam Gnezda Cerin
Midfielder67'
6.49
28
Facundo Pellistri
Facundo Pellistri Midfielder
7.02
20
Vicente Taborda
Vicente Taborda
Attacker60'
6.73
74
Elmin Rastoder
Elmin Rastoder Attacker
6.67
Referee : Matteo Marchetti

Starting XI ▼

1
Petar Marinov
Petar Marinov Goalkeeper
7.24
2
Diego Medina
Diego Medina Defender
6.28
3
Lasha Dvali
Lasha Dvali (C) Defender
7.29
4
Andre Hoffmann
Andre Hoffmann Defender
6.45
22
Ognjen Gasevic
Ognjen Gasevic Defender
6.81
8
Moataz Zemzemi
Moataz Zemzemi Midfielder
6.8
30
Jules Meyer
Jules Meyer Midfielder
7
33
Héctor Cuellar
Héctor Cuellar Midfielder
7.17
77
Elias Franco
Elias Franco
Attacker74'
6.86
67
Frédéric Maciel
Frédéric Maciel Midfielder
7.37
9
Atanas Iliev
Atanas Iliev Attacker
6.95
93
Mamadou Diallo
Mamadou Diallo
Attacker67'
6.7
11
Georgi Rusev
Georgi Rusev Attacker
7.82

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Georgios Katris → Triantafyllos Tsapras
6th Substitution
85'
Event
Sotiris Kontouris → Adriano Jagusic
7th Substitution
85'
74'
Event
Elias Franco → Héctor Cuellar
5th Substitution
Event
Triantafyllos Tsapras
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
69'
Event
Adam Gnezda Cerin → Étienne Camara
2nd Substitution
67'
Event
Anass Zaroury → Santino Andino
4th Substitution
67'
67'
Event
Mamadou Diallo → Atanas Iliev
3rd Substitution
Event
Vicente Taborda → Facundo Pellistri
1st Substitution
60'
50'
Event
Héctor Cuellar
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
31'
Event
Georgi Rusev
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Adriano Jagusic
Header / 1st Goal
21'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Adam Gnezda Cerin attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Mamadou Diallo takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
86
Attempt Attempt
Mamadou Diallo takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
86
Attempt Attempt
Mamadou Diallo takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
85
Update Update
Georgios Katris is on, and Triantafyllos Tsapras is off.
85
Update Update
Sotiris Kontouris comes on for Adriano Jagusic.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
82
Attempt Attempt
Ognjen Gasevic takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
81
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
76
Attempt Attempt
Elmin Rastoder takes a shot with his right foot, but it is blocked.
76
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
74
Update Update
Elias Franco comes on for Hector Cuellar.
71
Attempt Attempt
Elmin Rastoder takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
70
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Andre Hoffmann with a header, but it misses the target.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Triantafyllos Tsapras.
67
Substitution Substitution
Anass Zaroury is substituted for Santino Andino.
67
Update Update
Adam Gnezda Cerin comes on for Etienne Camara.
67
Update Update
Mamadou Diallo replaces Didier Digard.
64
Attempt Attempt
Santino Andino takes a right-footed shot but misses.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
60
Update Update
Vicente Taborda replaces Facundo Pellistri Rebollo.
59
Update Update
Vicente Taborda comes on for Facundo Pellistri Rebollo.
58
Attempt Attempt
Georgi Rusev takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
54
Attempt Attempt
Georgi Rusev takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
52
Attempt Attempt
Adriano Jagusic takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
50
Attempt Attempt
Moataz Zemzemi takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Hector Cuellar receives a yellow card.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Attempt Attempt
Elmin Rastoder takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
39
Attempt Attempt
Frédéric Maciel takes a right-footed shot but misses.
39
Attempt Attempt
Didier Digard takes a left-footed shot but misses.
31
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Georgi Rusev takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
31
Attempt Attempt
Hector Cuellar takes a left-footed shot but misses.
31
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Georgi Rusev scores to make it 1-1, assisted by Hector Cuellar.
30
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
30
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
29
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
29
Attempt Attempt
Moataz Zemzemi's left-footed shot is blocked.
29
Attempt Attempt
Didier Digard attempts a header but misses the shot.
29
Attempt Attempt
Hector Cuellar's right-footed shot is blocked.
29
Attempt Attempt
Frédéric Maciel takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
27
Attempt Attempt
Georgi Rusev takes a right-footed shot but misses.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
26
Attempt Attempt
Stefan de Vrij takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
26
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
25
Update Update
Offside.
21
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Adriano Jagusic with a header results in a goal.
21
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Jagusic Adriano scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Santino Andino.
19
Attempt Attempt
Jules Meyer takes a right-footed shot but misses.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
9
Update Update
Offside.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
5
Attempt Attempt
Adriano Jagusic takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Matteo Marchetti.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Panathinaikos 1-1 CSKA 1948 Sofia. Structural assessment: Panathinaikos exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.