Larne vs Crvena Zvezda preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Inver Park Tue, 21 Jul - 7:00 PM
Champions League
LarneLARN
0 4
Crvena ZvezdaCRV
Full Time Tue, 21 Jul 7:00 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
|
Goal
Bruno Duarte - 26' (P), 67'

CONTEXT

Larne hosted Crvena Zvezda in leg one of a two legged tie ending in a 0-4 result. The away side opened the scoring before halftime to lead 0-1 at the break. Three further goals arrived after the interval as Crvena Zvezda completed the victory. Home possession finished at 31 percent while the visitors held 69 percent. No red cards were shown to either side. Pre match data had identified Larne as the stronger team yet the outcome favoured the visitors with a significant deviation of 20.3 percent recorded for Crvena Zvezda. Market alignment was confirmed as true and efficiency remained in line with available indicators.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: A significant 20.3 percent deviation was recorded for Crvena Zvezda.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with pre match indicators.
  • xG alignment: No expected goals data was available to assess alignment.
  • Market alignment: The final result proved aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals values were not recorded during the match.
  • Event impact: Crvena Zvezda scored four goals to complete a 0-4 win.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred to distort the match outcome.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
R. Vidican
R. Vidican
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
A. Corb
A. Corb
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
G. Neacșu
G. Neacșu
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
F. Andrei
F. Andrei
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Larne G. Haveron
G. Haveron
VS
Crvena Zvezda D. Stankovic
D. Stankovic
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Tre Fiori Rank: W
Tre Fiori Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Larne
6.24%
Draw
14.05%
Away Crvena Zvezda
79.71%

Movement

Changes since opening
Larne
+5.05%
Draw
+11.7%
Crvena Zvezda
-16.75%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
24.45
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Larne
Crvena Zvezda
Power Score
50
24.45
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Larne — Opponent-weighted form score
Crvena Zvezda — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Larne Crvena Zvezda

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Larne

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Crvena Zvezda

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Larne ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Crvena Zvezda
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
6.94
42.17
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
42.17
6.94
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Larne -2.99 Efficiency Index
vs
Crvena Zvezda +2.99 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Larne
Crvena Zvezda
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Larne ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Crvena Zvezda
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Larne Crvena Zvezda
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Larne Crvena Zvezda
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Larne
Crvena Zvezda
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Larne
vs
Crvena Zvezda
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Larne Crvena Zvezda
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Larne 0.04
Crvena Zvezda 0.30
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Larne Crvena Zvezda
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Larne 0.05
Crvena Zvezda 0.00
Larne
Crvena Zvezda
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CRV had peak pressure around 35'.
  • CRV started the game with stronger pressure.
LARN Pressure CRV Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CRV reached the top pressure at 35' (81.38).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-2-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 21, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Inver Park
Capacity
1100
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Rareș George Vidican
Alexandru Ioan Corb
George Florin Neacșu
Florin Andrei

Statistics

Possession
LARN
33%
CRV
67%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 4
1 Shots 11
23 Dangerous attacks 82
31 Possession 69
0 Corners 8
10 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

0 Penalties 1
6 Substitutions 5
15 Throwins 19

Attacking

70 Attacks 91

Defensive

9 Saves 0

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
8 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Rareș George Vidican

Starting XI ▼

1
Rohan Ferguson
Rohan Ferguson Goalkeeper
5.38
3
Matt Ridley
Matt Ridley Defender
5.7
4
Aaron Donnelly
Aaron Donnelly Defender
5.7
11
Sean Graham
Sean Graham Defender
5.69
23
Tomas Cosgrove
Tomas Cosgrove (C) Defender
5.7
6
Chris Gallagher
Chris Gallagher Midfielder
6.09
15
Ronan Doherty
Ronan Doherty Midfielder
6.18
2
Logan Wallace
Logan Wallace
Defender76'
6.26
22
Jordan McEneff
Jordan McEneff Midfielder
6.18
9
Paul O'Neill
Paul O'Neill
Attacker76'
6.46
25
Dylan Sloan
Dylan Sloan Midfielder
6.27
47
James Simpson
James Simpson
Midfielder63'
6.27
26
Dan Bent
Dan Bent Midfielder
6.09
30
Matthew Lusty
Matthew Lusty Attacker
6.42
19
Kevin O'Hara
Kevin O'Hara
Attacker46'
6.38
Referee : Rareș George Vidican

Starting XI ▼

1
Matheus
Matheus Goalkeeper
6.5
13
Milos Veljkovic
Milos Veljkovic Defender
6.5
23
Nair Tiknizyan
Nair Tiknizyan Defender
6.5
25
Strahinja Erakovic
Strahinja Erakovic Defender
6.5
66
Young-woo Seol
Young-woo Seol Defender
6.49
4
Mirko Ivanic
Mirko Ivanic (C) Midfielder
6.5
10
Cristian Chambian
Cristian Chambian
Midfielder73'
6.61
15
Mohammed Abu Fani
Mohammed Abu Fani Midfielder
6.61
7
Marko Arnautovic
Marko Arnautovic
Attacker81'
6.5
21
Timi Max Elsnik
Timi Max Elsnik Midfielder
6.5
22
Vasilije Kostov
Vasilije Kostov Midfielder
6.69
70
Muhammed Cham
Muhammed Cham
Midfielder73'
6.69
75
Loizos Loizou
Loizos Loizou Midfielder
6.5
14
Osman Bukari
Osman Bukari
Midfielder46'
6.61
17
Bruno Duarte
Bruno Duarte Attacker
2
6.98
9
J. Enem
J. Enem
Attacker73'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
85'
Event
Muhammed Cham
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
81'
Event
Marko Arnautovic → Mohammed Abu Fani
9th Substitution
Event
Paul O'Neill → Jordan McEneff
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Logan Wallace → Ronan Doherty
8th Substitution
76'
73'
Event
Muhammed Cham → Vasilije Kostov
4th Substitution
73'
Event
J. Enem → Bruno Duarte
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Cristian Chambian → Mirko Ivanic
6th Substitution
67'
Event
Bruno Duarte
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
Event
James Simpson → Dylan Sloan
3rd Substitution
63'
55'
Event
Vasilije Kostov
Field Goal / 1st Goal
Event
Kevin O'Hara → Matthew Lusty
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Osman Bukari → Loizos Loizou
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Matthew Lusty
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
34'
Event
Sean Graham
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
28'
26'
Event
Bruno Duarte
Penalty / 1st Penalty
20'
Event
Young-woo Seol
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

85
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-4.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
81
Substitution Substitution
Paul O'Neill is substituted for Jordan McEneff.
81
Substitution Substitution
Marko Arnautovic is substituted off for Mohammed Abo Fani.
76
Update Update
Logan Wallace is on, and Ronan Doherty is off.
76
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
73
Update Update
Aleksandar Katai replaces Mirko Ivanic.
73
Update Update
Jay Enem is on, and Bruno Duarte da Silva is off.
73
Update Update
On comes Muhammed Saracevic, off goes Vasilije Kostov.
67
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-3.
63
Substitution Substitution
James Simpson is substituted for Dylan Sloan.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
55
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-2.
46
Update Update
Osman Bukari comes on for Loizos Loizou.
46
Update Update
On comes Kevin O'Hara, and off goes Matthew Lusty.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
34
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Matthew Lusty receives a yellow card.
32
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
28
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sean Graham receives a yellow card.
26
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Bruno Duarte da Silva scores, making it 0-1.
26
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
20
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Seol Young-Woo.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is R. Vidican.

CONCLUSION

The 0-4 away win leaves Crvena Zvezda in a strong position ahead of the second leg. Larne struggled to convert limited possession into meaningful chances while the visitors capitalised on their dominance after the opening goal. The halftime score of 0-1 set the tone for a controlled second half performance. Absence of red cards ensured the result reflected on field patterns without external distortion. With market alignment confirmed and efficiency holding steady the outcome provides a clear baseline for the return fixture. Both teams will review structural elements ahead of the next encounter.