Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Celje preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Arena Egnatia Wed, 22 Jul - 7:00 PM
Champions League
Egnatia RrogozhinëEGN
3 – 3
CeljeCEL
Full Time Wed, 22 Jul 7:00 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Eneo Bitri - 7'
Goal
|
Goal
Mario Kvesic - 45', 66'

CONTEXT

Egnatia Rrogozhinë hosted Celje in the first leg of their two-legged tie and played out a 3-3 draw. The sides were level at 1-1 after the opening period. Celje controlled more of the ball with 55 percent possession compared to the home side's 45 percent. No red cards were shown to either team. Despite Celje being the stronger side on paper the result ended level. The match featured a significant deviation of 73.2 percent centered on Celje. Efficiency remained in line with the overall pattern observed. Expected goals figures were not recorded in available data.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: A significant 73.2 percent deviation was recorded with Celje as the focal team.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift stayed in line with the established pattern.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable so alignment could not be assessed.
  • Market alignment: The final outcome was not aligned with pre-match projections.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals metrics were not provided in the match data.
  • Event impact: The 3-3 scoreline produced a balanced result after a 1-1 halftime.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so no distortion affected the match.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Karaoğlan
A. Karaoğlan
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
C. Sesigüzel
C. Sesigüzel
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Özkara
A. Özkara
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
O. Çakır
O. Çakır
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Egnatia Rrogozhinë N. Dede
N. Dede
VS
Celje V. de Carvalho Campelos
V. de Carvalho Campelos
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Petrocub Rank: W
Petrocub Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Egnatia Rrogozhinë
27.65%
Draw
26.76%
Away Celje
45.59%

Movement

Changes since opening
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
+21.61%
Draw
-61.16%
Celje
+39.55%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
49.83
72.37
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Celje
Power Score
49.83
72.37
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
843
188

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Egnatia Rrogozhinë — Opponent-weighted form score
Celje — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Egnatia Rrogozhinë Celje

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Celje

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Egnatia Rrogozhinë ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Celje
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
2.22
0.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
0.00
2.22
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Egnatia Rrogozhinë +0.19 Efficiency Index
vs
Celje -0.19 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Celje
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Egnatia Rrogozhinë ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Celje
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Egnatia Rrogozhinë Celje
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Egnatia Rrogozhinë Celje
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Celje
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
vs
Celje
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Egnatia Rrogozhinë Celje
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Egnatia Rrogozhinë —
Celje —
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Egnatia Rrogozhinë Celje
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Egnatia Rrogozhinë —
Celje —
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Celje
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CEL had peak pressure around 14'.
  • CEL started the game with stronger pressure.
  • Both teams' pressure dropped after the 30th minute.
EGN Pressure CEL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CEL reached the top pressure at 14' (53.13).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 22, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Arena Egnatia
Capacity
4300
Attendance
4000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Atilla Karaoğlan
Ceyhun Sesigüzel
Abdullah Bora Özkara
Oğuzhan Çakır

Statistics

Possession
EGN
48%
CEL
52%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 3
1 Shots 0
45 Possession 55
5 Corners 6
15 Free kicks 15
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
17 Throwins 18

Discipline

0 Offsides 3
15 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Atilla Karaoğlan

Starting XI ▼

98
Mario Dajsinani
Mario Dajsinani Goalkeeper
5.68
19
Arbenit Xhemajli
Arbenit Xhemajli (C) Defender
5.86
22
Guillem Jaime
Guillem Jaime Defender
5.88
28
Eljon Sota
Eljon Sota Defender
5.86
33
Eneo Bitri
Eneo Bitri Defender
6.06
7
Fernando Medeiros
Fernando Medeiros Midfielder
6.77
16
Edison Ndreca
Edison Ndreca
Defender86'
10
Alessandro Albanese
Alessandro Albanese Midfielder
6.18
77
Ildi Gruda
Ildi Gruda
Midfielder73'
6.5
17
Altin Kryeziu
Altin Kryeziu Midfielder
6.32
55
Geralb Smajli
Geralb Smajli
Defender86'
20
Karim Loukili
Karim Loukili Midfielder
6.18
8
Ibrahim Diabaté
Ibrahim Diabaté
Midfielder74'
6.69
29
Andrey Yago
Andrey Yago Midfielder
6.18
9
Soumaila Bakayoko
Soumaila Bakayoko Attacker
6.5
2
Daniel Adjessa
Daniel Adjessa
Attacker16'
6.46
Referee : Atilla Karaoğlan

Starting XI ▼

1
Zan-Luk Leban
Zan-Luk Leban Goalkeeper
5.68
3
Damjan Vuklisevic
Damjan Vuklisevic Defender
5.88
20
Alpha Diounkou
Alpha Diounkou Defender
6.05
17
Andrej Kotnik
Andrej Kotnik
Attacker69'
6.46
33
Leonardo Koutris
Leonardo Koutris Defender
5.99
4
Darko Hrka
Darko Hrka Midfielder
6.18
8
Mario Kvesic
Mario Kvesic (C) Midfielder
2
6.84
10
Svit Seslar
Svit Seslar Midfielder
6.32
25
Veton Tusha
Veton Tusha
Midfielder80'
6.5
11
Milot Avdyli
Milot Avdyli Midfielder
6.18
19
Mark Zabukovnik
Mark Zabukovnik
Midfielder80'
6.5
13
Papa Daniel
Papa Daniel Midfielder
6.13
91
Yaya Dukuly
Yaya Dukuly Midfielder
6.18
94
Rudi Pozeg Vancas
Rudi Pozeg Vancas
Midfielder88'
47
Armandas Kučys
Armandas Kučys Attacker
6.79
2
Pijus Širvys
Pijus Širvys
Defender69'
6.26

Events

2ND-HALF
88'
Event
Rudi Pozeg Vancas → Yaya Dukuly
10th Substitution
Event
Edison Ndreca → Fernando Medeiros
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Geralb Smajli → Altin Kryeziu
9th Substitution
86'
80'
Event
Veton Tusha → Svit Seslar
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Mark Zabukovnik → Milot Avdyli
7th Substitution
Event
Ibrahim Diabaté
Field Goal / 6th Goal
78'
Event
Ibrahim Diabaté → Karim Loukili
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Ildi Gruda → Alessandro Albanese
4th Substitution
73'
Event
Arbenit Xhemajli
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
73'
71'
Event
Papa Daniel
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
69'
Event
Andrej Kotnik → Alpha Diounkou
2nd Substitution
69'
Event
Pijus Širvys → Armandas Kučys
3rd Substitution
Event
Nevil Dede
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
68'
66'
Event
Mario Kvesic
Field Goal / 5th Goal
61'
Event
Vítor Campelos
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Fernando Medeiros
Field Goal / 4th Goal
58'
Event
Eljon Sota
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
56'
54'
Event
Armandas Kučys
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Mario Kvesic
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
Event
Daniel Adjessa → Soumaila Bakayoko
1st Substitution
16'
Event
Eneo Bitri
Field Goal / 1st Goal
7'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
88
Update Update
On Rudi Pozeg Vancas, off Yaya Dukuly.
86
Update Update
Edison Ndreca comes on for Fernando Medeiros Da Silva.
86
Update Update
Geralb Smajli is on, and Altin Kryeziu is off.
80
Update Update
Veton Tusha is on, and Svit Seslar is off.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Mark Zabukovnik is on, and Milot Avdyli is off.
78
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ibrahim Diabaté scores, bringing the score to 3-3.
78
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 3-3.
74
Update Update
Ibrahim Diabaté comes on for Karim Loukili.
73
Substitution Substitution
Ildi Gruda is substituted for Alessandro Albanese.
73
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Arbenit Xhemajli.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
71
Update Update
Pijus Sirvys is on, and Armandas Kucys is off.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Papa Daniel.
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mario Kvesic scores, making it 2-3.
58
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Fernando Medeiros Da Silva scores, bringing the match to 2-2.
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Eljon Sota receives a yellow card.
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-2.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mario Kvesic scores to make it 1-1, assisted by Armandas Kucys.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The match is now tied at 1-1.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
43
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
16
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Daniel Adjessa comes on for Soumaila Bakayoko.
13
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
13
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
7
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Eneo Bitri takes the lead 1-0.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Atilla Karaoglan.

CONCLUSION

The 3-3 draw leaves both teams with work to do ahead of the second leg. Egnatia Rrogozhinë showed resilience at home while Celje maintained their possession edge without converting it into a victory. The absence of red cards kept the contest at eleven versus eleven throughout. With expected goals data missing deeper analysis of chance quality remains limited. The significant deviation noted for Celje highlights how the result diverged from typical patterns. Both sides will likely adjust tactics for the return fixture to seek an advantage. The even halftime score set the tone for an open second half that produced the final parity.