Sutjeska vs ML Vitebsk preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Stadion Kraj Bistrice
Europa Conference League
SutjeskaSUT
1 2
ML VitebskML Vitebsk
Full Time
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 1 - 5
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Sutjeska 1–2 ML Vitebsk. The result saw ML Vitebsk take the points. ML Vitebsk showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 48%–52%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: A 63 percent significant deviation occurred in favor of ML Vitebsk.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match patterns for both sides.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable so alignment could not be assessed.
  • Market alignment: The match outcome proved aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals figures were recorded for either team.
  • Event impact: The 1-2 result extended the aggregate lead for ML Vitebsk to seven goals.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were issued leaving match dynamics undistorted.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
O. Çakır
O. Çakır
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
?. Uyarcan
?. Uyarcan
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
G. Barcın
G. Barcın
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Çelik
D. Çelik
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Sutjeska M. Pekovic
M. Pekovic
VS
ML Vitebsk I. Ryabov
I. Ryabov
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
ML Vitebsk Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sutjeska Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sutjeska
33.42%
Draw
29.6%
Away ML Vitebsk
36.99%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sutjeska
+22.73%
Draw
-50.14%
ML Vitebsk
+27.42%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
23.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sutjeska
ML Vitebsk
Power Score
50
23.33
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sutjeska — Opponent-weighted form score
ML Vitebsk — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sutjeska ML Vitebsk

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sutjeska

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

ML Vitebsk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sutjeska ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy ML Vitebsk
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.88
28.27
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.27
31.88
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sutjeska +0.29 Efficiency Index
vs
ML Vitebsk -0.29 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sutjeska
ML Vitebsk
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sutjeska ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy ML Vitebsk
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sutjeska ML Vitebsk
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sutjeska ML Vitebsk
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sutjeska
ML Vitebsk
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sutjeska
vs
ML Vitebsk
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sutjeska ML Vitebsk
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sutjeska 0.13
ML Vitebsk 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sutjeska ML Vitebsk
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sutjeska 0.04
ML Vitebsk 0.01
Sutjeska
ML Vitebsk
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ML Vitebsk had peak pressure around 62'.
  • ML Vitebsk started the game with stronger pressure.
SUT Pressure ML Vitebsk Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ML Vitebsk reached the top pressure at 62' (52.74).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sutjeska SUT Home
1 matches
ML Vitebsk ML Vitebsk Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
0
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-31T00:07:57+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 1 - 5
Stadium
Stadion Kraj Bistrice
Capacity
5214
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Oğuzhan Çakır
İbrahim Çağlar Uyarcan
Gökhan Barcın
Davut Dakul Çelik

Statistics

Possession
SUT
53%
ML Vitebsk
47%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
5 Shots 5
86 Dangerous attacks 54
48 Possession 52
7 Corners 2
13 Free kicks 27
3 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

83 Ball Safe 94
9 Goal Attempts 10
5 Substitutions 5
24 Throwins 16

Attacking

118 Attacks 92

Discipline

0 Offsides 4
27 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Oğuzhan Çakır

Starting XI ▼

1
Vladan Giljen
Vladan Giljen (C) Goalkeeper
5.88
4
Milos Vracar
Milos Vracar Defender
6.05
15
Boris Kopitovic
Boris Kopitovic Defender
6.26
44
Radoš Dedić
Radoš Dedić
Defender86'
22
Andrija Raznatovic
Andrija Raznatovic Defender
6.04
72
Anto Babic
Anto Babic Defender
6.05
6
Deni Hocko
Deni Hocko Midfielder
6.27
7
Aleksandar Boljevic
Aleksandar Boljevic Midfielder
6.37
30
Andrija Kecojević
Andrija Kecojević
Midfielder64'
6.37
11
Vasilije Cavor
Vasilije Cavor Midfielder
6.37
9
Petar Anicic
Petar Anicic
Midfielder56'
6.37
19
Aleksandar Scekic
Aleksandar Scekic Midfielder
6.37
3
Mamadou Camara
Mamadou Camara
Midfielder64'
6.37
77
Marko Simun
Marko Simun Midfielder
6.38
55
Slobodan Babic
Slobodan Babic Attacker
6.42
10
Balsa Toskovic
Balsa Toskovic
Attacker57'
6.79
Referee : Oğuzhan Çakır

Starting XI ▼

1
Pavel Pavlyuchenko
Pavel Pavlyuchenko Goalkeeper
6.12
6
Kirill Gomanov
Kirill Gomanov Defender
6.26
20
Zakhar Volkov
Zakhar Volkov (C) Defender
6.26
45
Ilya Moskalenchik
Ilya Moskalenchik Defender
6.5
7
Timur Ivanov
Timur Ivanov
Attacker81'
6.46
10
Denilho Cleonise
Denilho Cleonise Midfielder
6.5
9
Bassekou Diabaté
Bassekou Diabaté
Attacker46'
6.82
12
Radivoj Bosic
Radivoj Bosic Midfielder
6.5
8
Silas Gnaka
Silas Gnaka
Midfielder60'
6.37
15
Valeriy Bocherov
Valeriy Bocherov Midfielder
6.37
22
Yan Skibskiy
Yan Skibskiy Midfielder
6.37
27
Aleksandar Mesarovic
Aleksandar Mesarovic Midfielder
6.5
5
Milad Mohammadi
Milad Mohammadi
Defender60'
6.26
55
Valeriy Gromyko
Valeriy Gromyko Midfielder
6.48
80
Artem Kontsevoy
Artem Kontsevoy Midfielder
6.69
99
Mark Bulanov
Mark Bulanov
Attacker71'
6.46

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Bassekou Diabaté
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
Event
Radoš Dedić → Boris Kopitovic
10th Substitution
86'
Event
Balsa Toskovic
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
84'
81'
Event
Timur Ivanov → Ilya Moskalenchik
9th Substitution
71'
Event
Mark Bulanov → Artem Kontsevoy
8th Substitution
Event
Andrija Raznatovic
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
66'
Event
Balsa Toskovic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
65'
Event
Mamadou Camara → Aleksandar Scekic
6th Substitution
64'
Event
Andrija Kecojević → Aleksandar Boljevic
7th Substitution
64'
60'
Event
Silas Gnaka → Radivoj Bosic
4th Substitution
60'
Event
Milad Mohammadi → Aleksandar Mesarovic
5th Substitution
Event
Balsa Toskovic → Slobodan Babic
3rd Substitution
57'
Event
Petar Anicic → Vasilije Cavor
2nd Substitution
56'
Event
Slobodan Babic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
54'
46'
Event
Bassekou Diabaté → Denilho Cleonise
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
16'
Event
Artem Kontsevoy
Field Goal / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Bassekou Diabate scores, making it 1-2.
86
Update Update
Rados Dedic replaces Boris Kopitovic.
84
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
81
Substitution Substitution
Timur Ivanov is substituted off for Ilya Moskalenchik.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
71
Update Update
On comes Mark Bulanov, and off goes Artem Kontsevoj.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
67
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Andrija Raznatovic.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Balsa Toskovic.
64
Update Update
Andrija Kecojevic is on, and Aleksandar Boljevic is off.
64
Update Update
Mamadou Camara comes on for Aleksandar Scekic.
60
Update Update
Silas Gnaka is on, and Radivoj Bosic is off.
60
Update Update
Milad Mohammadi is on, and Aleksandar Mesarovic is off.
56
Update Update
Balša Tošković comes on for Slobodan Babic.
56
Update Update
On Petar Anicic, off Vasilije Cavor.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Slobodan Babic.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Update Update
Bassekou Diabate comes on for Denilho Cleonise.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
33
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
16
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Artem Kontsevoj scores, making it 0-1.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Oguzhan Cakir.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Sutjeska 1-2 ML Vitebsk. Structural assessment: ML Vitebsk exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.